#MITXData "The Impending Transformation of Market Research" presented by Microsoft Research
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-David Rothschild, Economist, Microsoft Research For over 75 years survey research has been relatively static; ask a random sample from a representative group of users or a focus group what they would do and report the result. In this session, David Rothschild (Economist, MSR - NYC) will demonstrate how survey research can be more efficient for creating both a snapshot of the present and forecasts of the future, with new questions and accompanying methodology that can utilize more cost effective non-representative samples. The resulting snapshots and forecasts are not only more accurate than standard methods, but more timely and granular, relevant for the stakeholders, and more cost effective. Combined with a nascent growth in our ability to harness social media other new data sources, David will help explain the transformation of market research that will happen next few years.
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#MITXData "The Impending Transformation of Market Research" presented by Microsoft Research
- 1. Indicators and Forecasts David Rothschild, PhD August 1, 2013
- 2. Mean Absolute Error: 2.78 Median Absolute Error: 2.14 Feb 16, 2012
- 3. Data • Fundamental (politics): past election results, incumbency, presidential approval ratings, economic indicators, ideological indicators, biographical information • Social media:Twitter, Facebook • Other online: search, page-views, comments • Polls • Prediction Markets • Experts Passive Data Active Data
- 4. Why do we create Indictors & Forecasts?
- 5. Why Forecasting: Efficiency Business Efficiency: Election Spending: $6 billion in 2012 Similar Methods and Uses: political economy, marketing, economic indicators, finance, public policy, business outcomes, etc.,
- 6. Why Forecasting: Research How/Why: Not just the outcome, but how/why the outcome ultimately occurs.
- 7. Why Forecasting: Necessary Technology: Methods almost unchanged for 75+ years, but will be totally different in 5-10 years Old technology is getting more expensive New technology is getting more efficient
- 8. What is the Goal?
- 9. Gather information analyze it, and aggregate that information into indicators of upcoming events. Relevant Timely Accurate Economically Efficient Raw Data -> Indicators
- 10. Relevant?
- 13. Obama expected to get 51% of vote. Relevant? (Oct 28)
- 14. Obama 80% likely to win Electoral College. Relevant? (Oct 28)
- 15. Relevant? (Oct 28) Romney up by 4 in latest Gallup poll of likely voters Obama 80% likely to win Electoral College
- 16. Why I do not care about economic indicator forecasts released the night before. Timely?
- 17. Efficiency Early: more resources left to allocate Often: always updated Research Early: capture more of campaign Often: granular Timely?
- 18. Accurate? Supporting Actress Nate Silver David Rothschild Anne Hathaway 67.1% 99.5% Sally Field 13.4% 0.4% Helen Hunt 11.1% 0.1% Amy Adams 8.4% 0.0% JackiWeaver 0.0% 0.0% Supporting Actor Nate Silver David Rothschild Tommy Lee Jones 35.4% 44.1% ChristophWaltz 23.8% 40.4% Robert De Niro 6.4% 13.6% Philip Seymour Hoffman 24.1% 1.5% Alan Arkin 10.3% 0.4%
- 19. Error Calibration Out-of-sample Accurate?
- 20. Cost Effective? Original Screenplay Nate Silver David Rothschild Django Unchained 52.0% Zero DarkThirty 27.4% Amour 20.2% Moonrise Kingdom 0.4% Flight 0.0% Sound Mixing Nate Silver David Rothschild Les Miserables 97.4% Skyfall 1.5% Life of Pi 0.6% Argo 0.3% Lincoln 0.2%
- 21. New Questions New Answers Cost Effective?
- 22. Data
- 23. Data • Fundamental (politics): past election results, incumbency, presidential approval ratings, economic indicators, ideological indicators, biographical information • Social media:Twitter, Facebook • Other online: search, page-views, comments • Polls • Prediction Markets • Experts Passive Data Active Data
- 24. Fundamental Data
- 26. GOP Primary
- 32. Next Generation Polling and Prediction Games
- 33. Next Generation Non-Random / Non-Representative Users Incentivize self-selected users w/ high info New questions (graphical interfaces) New aggregation methods/market makers Incentive structures for truthful participation Accurate for new answers and domains New types of questions: relevant & timely New domains: cost effective
- 34. Xbox Daily Poll Between 3 and 5 questions rotated on a daily basis. Over 350k answered at least once, providing demos. Over 750k polls taken in total. 30k+ completed 5 or more polls. 10k+ completed 10 or more polls. 5k+ completed 15 or more polls.
- 35. Predicting the winner of a state’s electoral college Both correct 217 races (63%) Both wrong 45 races (13%) Intent correct 20 races (24%) Expectations correct 63 races (76%) Disagree 83 races (24%) All Races Where the methods disagree Voter Intentions: in 239 / 345 races = 69% Voter Expectation: in 279 / 345 races = 81% Difference in proportion: in proportions: z=3.52***
- 38. Switches by Prior Support
- 39. Overall Shift Shift in Likelihood of Taking Poll/Vote (65%) Other to Romney (75%) Obama to Romney (25%) Shift in Support (35%) Total Shift Shift in Support