A brief overview of the carbon transition key issues from an economic standpoint. This is the abstract of the whole presentation.

1. Energy [r]evolution, Carbon Transition
December 2016Paris Clean Energy Seminar

2. Global energy consumed will have tripled in 60 years
3.7 Mds hab
5.0 Mds tep
6.0 Mds hab
9.2 Mds tep
8.2 Mds hab
15.3 Mds tep
+11% +27%
1970
1.35 tep/hab
2000
1.5 tep/hab
2030
1.9 tep/hab
Source : AIE / BP Stat Review
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3. In 100 years, CO2 emissions have increased 2.8 times
1.33 CO2 MT/Capita
100 years
Source : Max Roser, Oxford University, World Data
0.47 CO2 MT/Capita
Page 4

4. CO2 is not the only GHG responsible for global warming
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) :
• 72% carbon dioxide, the better known of all GHG
• 18% methane, 84 x more potent than carbon dioxide
• 8% nitrous oxide, known as laughing gas, 298 x more potent than carbon dioxide
• 1% others especially fluorinated gases (i.e. halocarbons from industrial origin)
Source : Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) :
• 72% carbon dioxide, the better known of all GHG
• 18% methane, 84 x more potent than carbon dioxide
• 8% nitrous oxide, known as laughing gas, 298 x more potent than carbon dioxide
• 1% others especially fluorinated gases (i.e. halocarbons from industrial origin)
Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide
Page 5

5. On a day-to-day basis our energy mix is based on carbo-
hydrate worldwide, France is an exception (nuclear)
Energy Mix Worldwide
2014
Energy Consumption Worldwide
2014
Source: BP 2015 Energy Data, Eurostat
Fossil energy represents 86% of the energy mix T I H represents about 84% of the world consumption
Page 6

6. In terms of total emissions, China is leading the pack
Comments :
• China is leading the pack in terms of
global emissions and the country is still
emerging
• Fast moving countries such as India or
Africa have not reached their full
economic potential yet
• In terms of leading emission / capita,
carbohydrate rich countries are leading
the pack : Qatar (39.1), Kuwait (28.3),
UAE (21.3)
• Then Australia (17.3) and the USA
(16.5) are the largest contributor /
capita
• Taiwan (11.8) still has a margin for
improvement, e.g. France (5.0) …
Source : EU Edgar Database
Comments :
• China is leading the pack in terms of
global emissions and the country is still
emerging
• Fast moving countries such as India or
Africa have not reached their full
economic potential yet
• In terms of leading emission / capita,
carbohydrate rich countries are leading
the pack : Qatar (39.1), Kuwait (28.3),
UAE (21.3)
• Then Australia (17.3) and the USA
(16.5) are the largest contributor /
capita
• Taiwan (11.8) still has a margin for
improvement, e.g. France (5.0) …
Page 7

7. Plastic was invented only in 1909, the downside is 5 trillion
plastic particles 0.33-1.00 mm in the world seas and oceans
Comments :
• Plastic trash is a direct by-product of
the hydrocarbon economy
• Plastic soup decay is a hazard for both
human health and bio-diversity
• Plastic bags : avg use of 30mn, 20
years to decay, emission of pollutants
• Many of the plastic waste ends up in
the ocean : cigarette buds, food
wrappers, beverage bottles, bags, lids
• In only 100 years, plastic waste have
contaminated the full food chain (fish,
birds, marine mamals)
Plastic Demand in EU
2014
Comments :
• Plastic trash is a direct by-product of
the hydrocarbon economy
• Plastic soup decay is a hazard for both
human health and bio-diversity
• Plastic bags : avg use of 30mn, 20
years to decay, emission of pollutants
• Many of the plastic waste ends up in
the ocean : cigarette buds, food
wrappers, beverage bottles, bags, lids
• In only 100 years, plastic waste have
contaminated the full food chain (fish,
birds, marine mamals)
Page 10
Source: PlasticsEurope
46.3
MioT

8. The decarbonization rate of the world economy points to the
right direction but there is still a long way to go (diamond)
Source: IEA, BP, IMF, World Bank, PwC
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9. Keeping with the 2°C global carbon budget requires cutting
carbon intensity by 6.3% every year to 2100
1.3%
Business
as usual
Source: IEA, BP, IMF, World Bank, PwC
Page 12
3%
a year
6.3%
a year

10. A specific « extraordinary » effort must be done to meet the
decarbonization target but we have proven to be able to do it
Source: IEA, BP, IMF, World Bank, PwC
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11. The transition to the low carbon economy represents an
attractive market larger than € 1 Trillion worldwide
Conclusions :
• The end of the carbon economy is the
beginning of a new world
• Nuclear can help filling in the gap but
not a long term suitable alternative
• CleanTech have sufficient reach to
provide necessary energy for all
• By 2050, the EU have pledged to cut
GHG by 80% compared to 1990s levels
• The cost of the switch to clean tech is >
€ 1 Tn for the next 4 decade (€ 270 Bn
for Europe only)
Conclusions :
• The end of the carbon economy is the
beginning of a new world
• Nuclear can help filling in the gap but
not a long term suitable alternative
• CleanTech have sufficient reach to
provide necessary energy for all
• By 2050, the EU have pledged to cut
GHG by 80% compared to 1990s levels
• The cost of the switch to clean tech is >
€ 1 Tn for the next 4 decade (€ 270 Bn
for Europe only)
Page 14
Source: EU, 2050 low-carbon economy

12. Solar still represents a small part of our energy sourcing but
in 40 years, the solar watt price was divided by 226 x
Source: Bloomberg, Earth Policy Institute
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13. Greentech innovation and regulations will continue to be a
key driver to curb carbon dioxide emissions worldwide
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• Encourage and finance cleantech innovation
• Support transition regulation to ease the energy turnaround
• Foster individual responsibility to protect our ecosystem

14. Leading a world of change, together