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Wind Power, Costs, O&M
              and the
 Renewable Revolution
            Husum, Germany
           18 September 2012




             Michael Taylor
            mtaylor@irena.org
  IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre
IRENA Membership




   IRENA’s 101 Members and 159 Signatories

                                Status 10. April, 2012   2
KEY FINDINGS
OF IRENA’S COSTING
ANALYSIS

                     3
Key findings

• A renewable revolution is under way
• Dramatic cost reductions for Solar PV, onshore wind
  competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential,
  hydropower and biomass more mature
• Renewable now THE economic solution for electrification
  and often grid extension, increasingly competitive for grid
  supply.
• Emerging market manufacturers driving down prices
• Data collection poses challenges
                                                                4
Framework for
Biomass, CSP, Hydro, PV & Wind
  Where to set the boundaries?




                    Are costs even available? Prices, or price indicators?
                                                                             5
                    Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
Levelised cost of electricity




                                6
The impact of low-cost
manufacturers: PV modules




                            7
Regional variations
can be large: Wind turbines




                              8
WIND POWER



             9
US wind turbine prices
1996 to 2012




                         10
Capacity factors rising




                          11
Average installed costs for
onshore wind




                              12
O&M costs




            13
US O&M costs by start year




  Source: LBNL, 2012
                             14
O&M share in LCOE




                    15
Emerging issues for O&M?


• Operation and maintenance cost can account for a
   substantial share of LCOE
• Why such wide ranges?
• Can all markets move to best practice?
• Cost reduction potential less well understood?
• Reasons for differences in bottom-up engineering cost
   estimates and real world project costs not well understood
• O&M issues deserves more attention



                                                                16
FUTURE WORK
AND
CONCLUSIONS

              17
Future work: Analysis
and data collection

•   Costing work is vital for support of renewables
•   Cost data should have same status as basic statistics!
•   Work with companies, industry associations, etc. on data
    collection and comparability
•   Look at emerging issues, O&M, BoS costs, engineering vs. Real
    world project costs, etc.
•   Develop web-based tool to allow upload of data, provide
    benchmarking details for participants




                                                                18
Wind is beginning to deliver on its large
       potential, but more needs to be done…



IRENA is part of the solution


                                                   19

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Husum IRENA/WWEA Wind Operations and Maintenance side event

  • 1. Wind Power, Costs, O&M and the Renewable Revolution Husum, Germany 18 September 2012 Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.org IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre
  • 2. IRENA Membership IRENA’s 101 Members and 159 Signatories Status 10. April, 2012 2
  • 3. KEY FINDINGS OF IRENA’S COSTING ANALYSIS 3
  • 4. Key findings • A renewable revolution is under way • Dramatic cost reductions for Solar PV, onshore wind competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential, hydropower and biomass more mature • Renewable now THE economic solution for electrification and often grid extension, increasingly competitive for grid supply. • Emerging market manufacturers driving down prices • Data collection poses challenges 4
  • 5. Framework for Biomass, CSP, Hydro, PV & Wind Where to set the boundaries? Are costs even available? Prices, or price indicators? 5 Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
  • 6. Levelised cost of electricity 6
  • 7. The impact of low-cost manufacturers: PV modules 7
  • 8. Regional variations can be large: Wind turbines 8
  • 10. US wind turbine prices 1996 to 2012 10
  • 12. Average installed costs for onshore wind 12
  • 13. O&M costs 13
  • 14. US O&M costs by start year Source: LBNL, 2012 14
  • 15. O&M share in LCOE 15
  • 16. Emerging issues for O&M? • Operation and maintenance cost can account for a substantial share of LCOE • Why such wide ranges? • Can all markets move to best practice? • Cost reduction potential less well understood? • Reasons for differences in bottom-up engineering cost estimates and real world project costs not well understood • O&M issues deserves more attention 16
  • 18. Future work: Analysis and data collection • Costing work is vital for support of renewables • Cost data should have same status as basic statistics! • Work with companies, industry associations, etc. on data collection and comparability • Look at emerging issues, O&M, BoS costs, engineering vs. Real world project costs, etc. • Develop web-based tool to allow upload of data, provide benchmarking details for participants 18
  • 19. Wind is beginning to deliver on its large potential, but more needs to be done… IRENA is part of the solution 19

Notas del editor

  1. - Refer to the information note on accession process