3. FOREIGN POLICY
• Determinants of FP, Decision Making in FP and its Analysis
• “Strategies that government use to guide their actions in the
international arena and the actions that leaders take to protect national
interests in given situations ”
• Foreign Policy is designed and executed to protects and promote
national interests abroad
4. Formulating Foreign Policy
• 1.Assessment of International System (threats, challenges and prospects)
• 2. Goal Setting
• 3. Determining the Policy Options
• 4. Formal decision making process
• 5. Implementing the options
5. Determinants of Foreign Policy
• EXTERNAL THREATS
• A country’s position in power structure
• Geo-strategic location
• International Image
• Alliances
6. NATIONAL INTEREST
• The goals that a state pursues to maximize what it perceives to be the best
for it.
• Primary National Interest : Survival
• Secondary: Security, stability and prosperity
• “Political traditions and political cultural context within which a nation state
formulates its FP”
(H.J Morgenthau )
7. Foreign Policy of Pakistan: Beginnings
• Pakistan emerged onto the world stage after a two pronged struggle; first for
the independence from colonial rule, and second freedom for people of
Muslim majority areas from the looming social and political domination by
another people.
• Founding Father’s vision: “There lies in front of us a new chapter and it
will be our endeavor to create and maintain good will and friendship with
Britain and our neighborly dominion Hindustan along with other sisterly
nations so that we all together make our greatest contribution for the peace
and prosperity of the world”(Jinnah –Speeches as GG 1947-1948)
8. “We do not cherish aggressive designs against any country or nation, We belive in principles of
honesty and fair play in national and international dealings and are prepared to make the
utmost contribution to the promotion of peace and prosperity among the nations of the
world. Pakistan will never be found lacking its material and moral support to the oppressed and
suppressed people of the world and in upholding the principles of the UN Charter.
There is nothing that we desire more ardently than to live in peace and let others live in peace
and develop our country according to our own lights without outside interference and improve
the lot of common man”
(Jinnah–Speechesas GG 1947-1948)
9. ANALYSIS
Jinnah’s concepts of Pakistan as a Muslim liberal democratic and modern nation state naturally predisposed
him in favour of close relations with democratic countries.
WWII ML supported the Alllies against fascist powers.
“Without any narrow and special commitments and without any prejudices in the
international sphere, it is neither tied to the apron strings of the Anglo-American
bloc nor is a camp-follower of the communist bloc”
(Liaqat Ali Khan quoted in Lawrence Ziring , Pakistan)
10. Factors shaping Pakistan’s FP at the time of
Independence
British Raj and the legacy of colonialism
Shadow of Partition
Search for Security and stability
Constitutional lag
Cold War
SEATO and CENTO
11. Geo- Strategic location of Pakistan
MAP
• Pakistan's geo strategic
importance makes it a vital
confederate between the West
and Central Asia, West and the
Muslim world, and between
USA and China. Pakistan has an
exceptional peculiarity of being
bordered by three major states, i.e.
Russia, China and India.
12. SIGNIFICANCE
1. Proximity to great regional and
international players
2. Gateway to energy and minerals rich
Central Asia
3. China’s geographical link to the M.E
4. Significance as a transit Economy and
Energy Corridors
5. Significance of Gawadar Port
6. A link to land locked Afghanistan in the
back drop of its importance in the great
and the new great game
14. 1947-1953
Positive Neutrality
• Kashmir Issue
• Pakhtoonistan Issue
• Commonwealth
• Korean War
• Invitation from USSR
• Liaqat’s visit to USA
• Water Dispute
15. 1953-1962
Era of Alliances
• Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement 1954
• SEATO
• CENTO
• Custody of Gawadar 1958
• Pak US agreement of Cooperation 1959
• Indus Water Treaty 1960
16. 1962-1971
Search for Alternatives
• Indo China War 1962
• Pak- China Boundary Agreement 1962
• Zou Enli’s Visit to Pakistan
• Preseident Ayub’s visits to China and USSR
• Indo-Pak War 1965 and Tashkant Agreement 1966
• Arab-Israel War 1967
• Kissenger’s visit to China 1971
17. 1971-1979
Bilaterlaism
• Bhuttoe’s Bilateral Approach
• Bilateralism generally refers to the undertaking of the two sides equally, and politically it defines
keeping equal relations with the two world powers, independent of their relationship with other
countries.
• Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto assumed the leadership of Pakistan at the hour when it became deprived of
its eastern wing and, Pakistan was facing the gravest of its crisis and the nation was in a very low
morale. He adopted an independent a foreign policy which was meant to liberate Pakistan from
the dependence of US and it proved successful in its agenda. Before Pakistan was a strong allay
of US sponsored alliance system that was meant to contain the influence of Soviet
communism. Indian armies were not forbidden by the US to enter in the civil war and thus US
despite of being the most reliable ally of Pakistan could not help to retain the status quo of
Pakistan during the dismemberment of the east wing. This event lit a spark in the thinking of the
political elite of Pakistan and led the then leadership of Pakistan to start a policy of bilateralism.
•
18. Bilateralism…
• Bhutto’s Bilateralism helped Pakistan to redefine the contours of its foreign
policy and Pakistan was able to follow relatively independent foreign policy,
but Bhutto’s bilateralism failed to achieve its objective vis a vis India and
resolution of longstanding dispute with it. The Kashmir issue was put in
cold store and no meaningful progress was made on it. And lastly, Z. A.
Bhutto paid the price of its bilateralism when he was failed to get any moral
and political support from western powers during his long trial in courts of
Pakistan which eventually ended in his execution.
20. 1979-1988
Back to American Block
• Afghan Jihad and Cold war
• Iran-Iraq War 1980-88
• SAARC 1981
• Sir Creek
• Siachin Conflict
• India’s Plan to Attack Kahuta 1984
• Cricket Diplomacy
• ECO
• Brasstack Crisis 1986-87
• Geneva Accord
21. 1988-2001
FP lacking direction
• Kashmir fights for freedom 1988-2001
• Afghan Conundrum and civil war 1990-98
• US Sanctions
• Iraq-Kuwait war and Pakistan 1990
• Pakistan goes nuclear 1998
• Lahore Summit 1999 27th February 1999
• Kargil conflict 1999 May
• Agra summit
22. 1988-2001
US Sanctions
• Sanctions under the 1985 Pressler Amendment:
• According to this amendment, there is a ban on military assistance to Pakistan and Pakistan does not own a nuclear explosive device. These
limitations were activated in 1990. American foreign policy abruptly changed after the withdrawal of Red army from Afghanistan, and America
began to force Pakistan to abandon its nuclear program and to sign N.P.T. unilaterally. After the debacle of Soviet Union and end of cold war
United States was no longer interested in the friendship of Pakistan. It was decided to implement the already passed Pressler Amendment,
which disqualified Pakistan from receiving any more American economy and military assistance. America banned the delivery of military
equipment’s worth $ 368 million and 28 F-16 air-crafts for which Pakistan had already paid.
•
• Sanctions under the 1977 Symington Amendment:
• According to this amendment that under the foreign Assistance Act and the Arms Export Control Act to states that uranium enhancement
technology and nuclear weapons are not allowed to acquire or develop. These restrictions remain in force. But in 1994 Glenn Amendment
lifted Symington Amendment and gave the justification to all Pakistan for the importation of uranium. But the ring magnets case (shipments
between December 1994-1995) became the cause of Symington Amendment limitation afresh.
•
23. US Sanctions…
• Non-Statutory Sanctions:
• This amendment was imposed as the Clinton foreign policy. This was implemented due to the 1998 nuclear
tests of Pakistan and the October 1999 coup in Pakistan. In this amendment military to military and high
level exchanges remain restricted.
• It is necessary to note that during this hot period between Pakistan and America, U.S. did not stop to support
to Pakistan in Counter-narcotics, basic education programs, certain non-governmental organization (N.G.O.),
support activities and some other humanitarian actions.
• By wrapping the discussion into nutshell one can easily comprehend the fact that Pak-U.S. relations have not
been on the smooth pace. The relations between them continued to oscillate to and fro, from assistance to
sanctions, from pillar to post according to their interests, stakes, and events. In the era of confusion Pakistan
faced many sanctions which affected its economy, political framework, military as well as defense expertise.
24. Foreign Policy post 9/11
• 9/11 Attacks and US invasion on Afghanistan
“you are either with us or against us”
(George W. Bush)
• Attack on Indian Parliament 13th December 2005
• American Invasion on Iraq 2003
• Mumbai Attacks 2008
• Raymond Davis Saga
25. Foreign Policy post US Withdrawal
• 20 years of illegal occupation of Afghanistan and utter failure
of WOT
• Under the 2020 Doha Agreement, the US withdrawal of
forces from Afghanistan was conditional on Taliban
security assurances that Afghan territory would not be
used as a launch pad by al-Qaeda or Islamic State for
attacks against the United States.
26. Taliban Takeover
• Instead of the May 1 deadline set in the Doha deal for the troops’ withdrawal, Biden approved that the last US soldier
would leave Afghanistan by September 11.
• As the US began troops’ withdrawal under a revised plan, the Taliban on the other hand started making inroads —
capturing districts after districts.
• As the drawdown picked up pace, so did the march of the Taliban.
• The US intelligence — given the rapid pace with which Taliban were making inroads — changed its assessment.
• It concluded that the Taliban would sweep the country within six months to a year after the troops’ withdrawal.
• But as the withdrawal entered its final phase, the Taliban’s return to power was inevitable.
• The insurgent group captured many districts and provinces even where they did not hold much sway in the past without
any resistance.
• Seeing the Taliban’s rapid march towards capital Kabul, Biden ordered the withdrawal of US troops and evacuation of
American diplomats, staff and citizens by August 31.
27. Taliban Takeover
• Instead of the May 1 deadline set in the Doha deal for the troops’ withdrawal, Biden approved that the last US soldier
would leave Afghanistan by September 11.
• As the US began troops’ withdrawal under a revised plan, the Taliban on the other hand started making inroads —
capturing districts after districts.
• As the drawdown picked up pace, so did the march of the Taliban.
• The US intelligence — given the rapid pace with which Taliban were making inroads — changed its assessment.
• It concluded that the Taliban would sweep the country within six months to a year after the troops’ withdrawal.
• But as the withdrawal entered its final phase, the Taliban’s return to power was inevitable.
• The insurgent group captured many districts and provinces even where they did not hold much sway in the past without
any resistance.
• Seeing the Taliban’s rapid march towards capital Kabul, Biden ordered the withdrawal of US troops and evacuation of
American diplomats, staff and citizens by August 31.
28. Foreign Policy Challenges and Prospects
• Understanding the dynamics of an unpredictable world is
important especially as unilateral actions by big powers
and populist leaders, which mark their foreign policy,
have implications for Pakistan’s diplomacy. In evolving its
foreign policy strategy Pakistan has to match its goals to
its diplomatic resources and capital. No strategy is
effective unless ends and means are aligned
29. Challenges
1. Relations with China and US
2. navigating the Sino-US confrontation
3. dealing with Afghanistan’s uncertainties
4. managing the adversarial relationship with India
5. balancing ties between strategic ally Saudi Arabia
and neighbour Iran.
30. Foreign Policy Challenges and Prospects
• Understanding the dynamics of an unpredictable world is
important especially as unilateral actions by big powers
and populist leaders, which mark their foreign policy,
have implications for Pakistan’s diplomacy. In evolving its
foreign policy strategy Pakistan has to match its goals to
its diplomatic resources and capital. No strategy is
effective unless ends and means are aligned