Understanding the forces behind our volatile economy is essential in the credit union industry. In this free webinar we get an update on the economy and market, and how they will impact your credit union, now and in the future. (Handouts). For recording visit http://www.nafcu.org/moneyconcepts

1. Economic Update
For Credit Unions
October 4, 2011 1

2. 2

3. U.S. Economy Stalls
Headwinds:
Consumer Confidence Is The Lowest Since The Credit Crisis
More Than A Year Away From Any Meaningful Turnaround In
The Housing Market
Food And Oil Prices Are Leveling Out But Still Volatile
The Unemployment Is Likely Not To Fall Back To Pre-Crisis
Levels For Years
Sovereign Debt Issues
A Flood Of New Regulations Are On The Horizon
Odds Of A Recession Is Now 5 Out Of 10
3

4. 4

5. Consumer Confidence
5

6. Unemployment Will Remain A Serious Problem
25 Million Americans Are Unemployed or Underemployed
Average Duration 40 Weeks 6

7. Older Workers Are More Likely To Delay
Retirement
7

8. Record Low Mortgage Rates
8

9. Housing Market Index
9

10. 10

11. Gas Prices
11

12. Gold Prices
12

13. 13

14. The Federal Reserve
Has Kept Interest Rates Near
Zero
Lent Over $3 Trillion Through The
Discount Window
Purchased Hundreds Of Billions
Of Dollars Of Fannie Mae And
Freddie Mac Bonds
Monetizing Debt… Making Money
Out Of Nothing At All
Selling Notes And Buying
Treasuries
14

15. 15

16. 16

17. 17

18. 18

19. International Worries
European Debt Crisis
Japan
Arab Uprising
Iraq
Afghanistan
Iran
19

20. 20

21. Debt Crisis
21

22. The European Web Of Debt
22

23. 23

24. Japan Is A Key Supplier To Electronics And Automotive
Industries, Supply-Chain Disruptions Pose A Larger Risk
To Global Manufacturing Industries
24

25. 2011 Bright Spots
Due To Strong Profit Growth,
Corporations Are Flush With Cash
Business Investment Will Outpace
The Overall Economy
Due To Low Dollar, The Export
Sector Is Supporting Overall GDP
Growth
The Private Sector Has Deleveraged
Any Recession Is Likely To Be Short
And Shallow
25

26. 26

27. 27

28. 28

29. U.S. Treasury Yields
29

30. GDP Forecasts
Risk For Recession Is Now At 50%
30

31. 31

32. Market Outlook
What’s Happening In
The Stock Market?
32

33. Volatility Of The S&P 500
Volatility Index Reached 90
33

34. 34

35. Profits Up Amid Lower GDP
Not Hiring Workers
35

36. Corporate Earnings
Total S&P 500 Companies’ Earnings
Grew 19.45% On A Year-Over-Year
Basis During The Quarter, Driven By
Better-than-expected Earnings
Growth In 9 Of 10 Equity Market
Sectors.
Earnings Growth Rates Surpassed
Expectations In Several More
Economically Sensitive Sectors,
Including Financials, Information
Technology, Industrials, Energy, And
Consumer Discretionary.
36

37. 37

38. Financial Conditions Appear
Strongly Accommodative
38

39. January 1, 2000 To December 31, 2009
39

40. 40

41. 41

42. September 1, 2010 To August 31, 2011
42

43. March 9, 2009 To August 31, 2011
43

44. Market Predictions
44

45. Closing Thoughts
In The Next 20 Years We Will Witness The
2011 Largest Movement Of People Into The
Middle Class In The History Of The World
Eastern Europe, China And India Are
Already Leading the Way, With South
America, And Africa Not Far Behind
The Internet Has Democratized
Information The Likes Of Which Has Not
Happened Since The Invention Of The
Printing Press
Freedom Is On The March And Where It
Succeeds Wealth Follows
The Future Is Ours For The Taking
45

46. Money Concepts International. Inc.
11440 N. Jog Road
Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418
Call: Michael Thompson
National Sales Director
Tel:561.472.2000 Ext: 5080
MichaelT@moneyconcepts.com
www.nafcu.org/MoneyConcepts
All Securities through Money Concepts Capital Corp.
Member FINRA/SIPC
Money Concepts Advisory Service is
a Registered Investment Advisor with the SEC
All Non Securities and Non Advisory Products through
Money Concepts International, Inc.
Providers of Financial Services
46
Since 1979