Más contenido relacionado La actualidad más candente (20) Similar a Majerowicz (20) Majerowicz1. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Introduction to Project Scheduling
NASA PM Challenge 2011
Long Beach California
February 9-10, 2011
Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP
ASRC Aerospace Corporation
Used with permission
2. Purpose of Today’s Presentation
The purpose to today’s session is to provide a basic overview
of project scheduling.
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 2
3. Agenda
• NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives
• Project Scheduling Processes
• Additional Project Scheduling Resources
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 3
5. NASA Projects Are Large, Expensive and Complex
NASA spends
approximately 85
percent of its budget
on procurements,
while other project
work is performed
“in-house” at NASA
facilities
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 5
6. NASA Project Life Cycle Simplified
FORMULATION IMPLEMENTATION
Project Pre-A A B C D E F
Concept Concept & Preliminary Final Sys. Ops. & Closeout
Technology
Phases Studies
Development
Design & Design & Assembly, Sustainment
Tech. Comp. Fabrication Test, &
Launch
A B C D E F
Key Decision
Points
Mission Concept Review
Systems Requirements Review
Major Mission Definition Review (or System Definition Review)
Reviews Preliminary Design Review
Critical Design Review
Systems Integration Review
Operational Readiness Review
Flight Readiness Review
Post Launch Assessment
Review
Decommissioning
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 Review 6
7. NPR 7120.5 Project Schedule Requirements
Project Phase Schedule Requirement
Pre-Phase A Draft Management Baseline that includes
“a schedule”
Phase A Preliminary Project Plan that includes the
“schedule baseline” / Integrated Master
Schedule
Phase B Approved Project Plan that includes
schedule baseline / Integrated Master
Schedule
Phase C/D - Maintain a schedule baseline based on
an approved joint cost and schedule
confidence level
- Notice and recovery plan if C/D phase life
cycle milestone is estimated to be delayed
6 months or more
Formulation / Implementation Schedule margin . . . based on
assessments of risks
SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 7
8. Integrated Master Schedule
Integrated Master Schedule
“An integrated set of schedule data that reflects the total
project scope of work as discrete and measurable
tasks/milestones that are time-phased through the use of task
durations, interdependencies, and date constraints and is
traceable to the WBS.”
SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 8
10. Project Scheduling Processes
Process Primary Output
Activity Definition Task listing of project work scope
Activity Sequencing Project logic / activity dependencies
Activity Duration Estimating Approximation of working time (e.g.
days) to accomplish each activity
Schedule Margin Planning Funded schedule allowance to
account for risk and uncertainty
Schedule Development Schedule baseline / Integrated Master
Schedule
Schedule Status Accounting, Data Current schedule (actual progress +
Maintenance & Updating forecast to complete)
Schedule Analysis & Assessment Insight and understanding
Schedule Performance Reporting Results, metrics and trends
Schedule Control Revisions, replans/rebaselines,
management decisions
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 10
11. Activity Definition
Activity Description
KDP-C Approval
Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House)
Instrument A Development (Contractor)
Instrument B Development (International
Activity Definition is the
Partner)
process of identifying the
A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) tasks which must be
System I&T (NASA In-House) performed in order to
Integrate Instrument A produce the project’s
Integrate Instrument B deliverables and meet it’s
objectives.
Environmental Testing
Launch Site Operations
Ground System Development (NASA
Center "B")
Launch Vehicle
Launch
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 11
12. Activity Sequencing
KDP-C Approval
Start: 2/10/11 ID: 1
Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House)
Start: 2/10/11 ID: 2
Activity
Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
Res:
Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
Res:
Sequencing is the
process of
Instrument A Development (Contractor) A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1)
characterizing
Start: 2/10/11 ID: 3 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 5 project logic by
Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
Res: Res: identifying and
documenting the
Instrument B Development (International Partner) interdependencies
between project
Start: 2/10/11 ID: 4
Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
Res:
activities
Launch Vehicle
Start: 2/10/11 ID: 14
Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
Res:
System I&T (NASA In-House) Schedule Margin Integrate Instrument A
Start: 2/10/11 ID: 6 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 7 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 8
Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
Comp: 0% Res: Res:
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 12
13. Activity Duration Estimating
Activity Description Duration Estimate
KDP-C Approval 0d
Spacecraft Development (NASA In-
House) 600 d
Instrument A Development
(Contractor) 450 d Activity Duration
Instrument B Development Estimating is the
(International Partner) 400 d
process of determining
A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d the realistic number of
System I&T (NASA In-House) 930 d work periods required
Integrate Instrument A 25 d to accomplish each
Integrate Instrument B 15 d activity.
Environmental Testing 100 d
Launch Site Operations 60 d
Ground System Development (NASA
Center "B") 500 d
Launch Vehicle 764 d
Launch 0d
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 13
14. Activity Duration Estimating Methods
Estimating Method Approach Reliability
Expert Judgment Estimate is based on the expertise, knowledge or experience of Moderate
someone familiar with the activity
Analogous Actual duration from a similar activity used as the basis for the Moderate
new activity duration
Bottoms-Up / Grassroots Decomposition of activities into lower level tasks which are High
estimated and then aggregated at higher levels
Parametric Duration derived from a arithmetical relationship among variables Moderate-to-High
Brainstorming Project team guesses durations based on a combination of Low
factors (gut feel, prior experience, historic actuals)
Expected Value / Average of activity's most likely, optimistic and pessimistic High
3-Point duration estimates
Standards Application Well-established, historically validated durations for routine or High
procedurally-based activities or operations
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 14
16. Schedule Margin Planning Methods
Planning Method Approach
% of activity or overall project duration deducted OR added and established as
Applied Percentage the schedule reserve
Rule-of-thumb based on historic norms (e.g. one month of reserve for each year
Fixed Standard between time-now and launch readiness date)
Risk-Based Expected Value Calculation of expected value of project risks (probability x impact)
3-Point Duration Estimate Evaluation of tradeoffs among most likely, optimistic, pessimistic and expected
Derivation value activity durations
Determine reserve based on calculation of expected value of decision alternatives
Decision Tree Analysis
Difference between project completion date from the Critical Path Method
Monte Carlo Analysis calculation and the completion date associated with the desired confidence level
based on the Monte Carlo analysis
Recommendation from those with expertise or experience appropriate for the
Expert Judgment application, discipline or effort
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 16
17. Schedule Development
Schedule Development
is the process of
determining the
planned start and finish
dates for the project’s
activities in order to
establish the baseline
schedule
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 17
18. Schedule Status Accounting, Data
Maintenance & Updating
• Factors to consider for activities
include
– Status date
– Actual start date
– Actual finish date
– Remaining duration
– Physical percentage complete
– Estimated completion date of activities
underway
– Actual duration
– Earned Value
– Resource updates
– Forecast start date, finish date or
planned duration for activities that
have not started
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 18
19. What Has Changed Since We Baselined the Schedule?
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 19
20. Schedule Analysis and Assessment
0 - Total Project : Finish Date
100% 18 Oct 10
SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST
50.0
95% 01 Oct 10
90% 28 Sep 10
85% 26 Sep 10
80% 24 Sep 10 Yes No Criterion Description
40.0
75% 22 Sep 10
70% 20 Sep 10 1. ___ ___ Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work?
Cumulative Frequency
65% 19 Sep 10
30.0
60% 18 Sep 10 2. ___ ___ Is the correct WBS element identified for each task
55% 17 Sep 10
and milestone in the IMS?
Hits
50% 15 Sep 10
45% 14 Sep 10
40% 12 Sep 10
3. ___ ___ Is the IMS used by all levels of management for
20.0
35% 11 Sep 10 project implementation and control?
30% 09 Sep 10
25% 08 Sep 10 4. ___ ___ Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies
10.0 20% 06 Sep 10
15% 04 Sep 10
identified to reflect a credible logical sequence?
10% 03 Sep 10
5% 31 Aug 10
5. ___ ___ Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at
0.0 0% 24 Aug 10 appropriate level of detail for effective management?
24 Aug 10 13 Sep 10 03 Oct 10
Distribution (start of interval) 6. ___ ___ Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated
NEW Overall Rating
management control milestones?
Project Name: Project XYZ 1.4 R
Contractor: ACME Engineering 7. ___ ___ Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible
File Type: MS Project Current start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones?
Schedule Status
Current Start (earliest activity Early Start date) 1/1/2005 8. ___ ___ Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned
Current Finish (latest activity Early Finish date) 3/16/2008
Approximate Remaining Work Days 722
resources reasonable and available?
Is schedule externally linked to other schedules? N
Status Date 6/15/2005 9. ___ ___ Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the
Task & Milestone Count (excl. Summary Tasks) Count % of Total calculated IMS logic network?
Total Tasks & Milestones 192
Completed Tasks & Milestones 13 7% 10. ___ ___ Is the critical path credible?
To Go Tasks & Milestones 179 93%
Logic (excl. Summary & Started/Completed Tasks) 11. ___ ___ Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been
Tasks & Milestones Without Predecessors 75 42% R
Tasks & Milestones Without Successors 73 41% R conducted on the IMS within the last three months?
Constraints (other than ASAP) and Deadlines 102 57% R
Summaries with Logic Ties ** 1 1% G 12. ___ ___ Has adequate schedule margin been included and
Tasks & Milestones Needing Updates 21 12% R clearly defined within the IMS?
Actuals after Status Date 2 1% Y
Tasks marked as Milestones (have Duration > 0) 0 0% G
13. ___ ___ Has the IMS content been baselined and is it
Additional Schedule Information
Tasks with No Finish Ties 20 11% adequately controlled?
Recurring Tasks 0 0%
Tasks & Milestones with Estimated Durations 15 8% 14. ___ ___ Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints
Schedule traceable to WBS (Y/N) Yes
and relationship leads/lags?
Realistic Critical Path(s) (Y/N) No
Schedule Baselined (Y/N) No
Resource Loaded (Y/N) No 15. ___ ___ Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS?
Tasks & Milestones with 10 days or less TF 1 1%
Tasks with Total Float > 25% of Rem Dur 148 83%
Source: NASA Schedule Management Handbook
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 20
21. Schedule Performance Reporting
Spacecraft Cumulative Activties
1200
1000
Cumulative Activities
800
600
400
200
0
Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
B/L Plan 105 141 197 258 325 416 274 431 515 601 682 758 881 975 1063 1133
Actuals 102 137 161 198 217 238 274 352 387
Late Finish 274 320 359 398 460 541 634 709 774 842
Month/Year
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 21
22. Schedule Control
Schedule Control is the process of managing the schedule
baseline and current IMS in a timely, disciplined manner in
response to:
a) new work scope
b) the need for a new baseline schedule
c) recovery from actual or potential schedule problems
Schedule control includes taking the appropriate action to get
things done and stay on track.
Schedule
Control
Baseline Workaround Management
Replanning
Revisions Planning Decision-Making
New Scope New Baseline Recovery Plan Action
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 22
23. Let’s Recap Some Key Points From Today’s Session
Free Slack: amount of time
an activity can be delayed
before impacting the start
date of it‟s successor
Total Slack: amount of
time an activity can be
delayed before impacting
the project „s completion
date
Schedule Margin:
pre-planned
amount of funded
schedule reserve
to protect against
risks/problems
Critical Path:
path through
network with
least amount of
total slack
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 23
25. NASA Schedule Management Handbook
Chapters
1. Introduction
2. Schedule Management Overview
3. Schedule Management Tool
Considerations
4. Pre-schedule Development
5. Integrated Master Schedule
Development
6. Status Updates & Schedule
Maintenance
7. Schedule Assessments and Analysis
8. Schedule Control
9. Schedule Reporting
10. Schedule Data Archival & Lessons
Learned
Download the NASA Schedule Management Handbook at: http://evm.nasa.gov/handbooks.html
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 25
26. NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 26
27. NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice
• Instructions for joining the P&S CoP are at:
– http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/PSCoP_Instructions.pdf
• For P&S CoP technical assistance contact:
– Jennifer Poston
– Jennifer.L.Poston@nasa.gov
– (301) 286-7492
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 27
28. Schedule Training from the NASA Academy of
Program, Project and Engineering Leadership
• Understanding Project Scheduling (1 day)
• Beyond Scheduling Basics: Analysis, Control & Margin Planning (1
day)
• Advanced Earned Value Management Topics: Recognizing EVM and
Scheduling Gaming, Abuse and Data Manipulation (1 day)
• Assessing Project Performance (2 days)
• Training schedule
http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/scheduletrain.htm
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 28
29. Thank you !
Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP
Management Consultant
ASRC Aerospace Corporation
walt.majerowicz@nasa.gov
walt.majerowicz@gmail.com
301-286-5622
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 29