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Patterson.dan
1.
Using the Risk
Register in Integrated Cost/Schedule Risk Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation David T. Hulett, Ph.D. Hulett & Associates, LLC Dr. Dan Patterson, PMP Acumen NASA PM Challenge Daytona Beach, FL February 24-25, 2009 © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
2.
Agenda • Explain “Risk
Factors” approach • Apply Risk Factors to schedule and cost risk • Apply Risk Factors to simple space vehicle development schedule as an example © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
3.
Limitations with the
Traditional 3-point Estimate of Activity Duration • Typical schedule risk analysis starts with the activity that is impacted by risks – Estimates the 3-point estimate for optimistic, most likely and pessimistic duration – Implies the risk is 100% likely with uncertain impact • Which risks cause the most overall schedule risk? Cannot say directly, but indirectly: – Sensitivity to activity durations – Criticality of activity durations © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
4.
Some Problems with
Traditional Approach • Can tell which activities are crucial, but not directly which risks are driving • Makes poor use of the Risk Register that is usually available • Cannot decompose the overall schedule risk into its components BY RISK – Ability to assign the risk to its specific risk drivers helps with communication of risk causes and risk mitigation © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
5.
We Propose a
Different Approach: Start with the Risks Themselves • Drive the schedule risk by the risks already prioritized in the Risk Register • For each risk, specify: – Probability it will occur (NEW) – Impact on time if it does (multiplicative factors, allows it to affect different duration activities) – Assign to the activities it will affect • Starting with the risks themselves gives us benefits – Links qualitative analysis to the quantitative analysis – Estimates the impact of specific risks for prioritized mitigation purposes – Correlations between activities modeled automatically © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
6.
Simple Example of
Risk Register Risks • Use the Risk Factors module in Pertmaster 8 • Collect probability and impact data on risks • Map the risks to activities © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
7.
Risk Factors Mechanics
(1) • The risk factor is assigned to one or several activities, affecting their durations by a multiplicative factor – E.g., the factor may be .90 for optimistic, 1.0 for most likely and 1.25 for pessimistic – These factors multiply the schedule durations of the activities to which they are assigned • Risks can be assigned to one or more activities • Activity durations can be influenced by one or more risks © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
8.
Risk Factors Mechanics
(2) • Risk Factors are assigned a probability of occurring on any iteration – When the risk occurs, the factor used is chosen at random from the 3-point estimate and operates on all activities to which it is assigned – When not occurring on an iteration the risk factor takes the value 1.0, a neutral value • When an activity is influenced by more than one risk, their factors are multiplied together, if they happen, on any iteration © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
9.
Risk Factor Probability is
100%, Factor can be + or - 0 0 1 0 - C o n s tr u c tio n : D u r a tio n 1 0 0% 11 5 2 50 9 5 % 1 11 Here the 9 0 % 1 09 8 5 % 1 08 For the Ranges are 2 00 8 0 % 1 06 7 5 % 1 05 examples we based on 7 0 % 1 04 use an activity 6 5 % 1 04 deviations + with 100 days Cumulative Frequency 6 0 % 1 03 1 50 and – from 5 5 % 1 02 in the Hits 5 0 % 1 01 the Plan. 4 5 % 1 01 4 0 % 1 00 schedule 1 00 Probability 35% 99 30% 99 is 100% 25% 98 50 20% 97 15% 96 10% 95 5 % 94 0 0 % 90 90 95 10 0 1 05 1 10 11 5 D istrib u tio n (sta rt o f in te rva l) © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
10.
Assigning a Probability
Less than 100% 0010 - Construction : Duration 0040 - Technology Design : Duration 100% 115 100% 130 Spike 95% 107 95% 123 contains 90% 103 1200 90% 120 Spike 85% 101 85% 118 70% of 2000 80% 100 80% 116 contains the 75% 100 70% 100 1000 75% 114 70% 113 40% of probability 65% 100 65% 111 the Cumulative Frequency Cumulative Frequency 1500 60% 100 800 60% 110 55% 100 55% 109 probability Hits Hits 50% 100 50% 107 45% 100 600 45% 105 1000 40% 100 40% 100 35% 100 35% 100 30% 100 400 30% 100 25% 100 25% 100 500 20% 100 20% 100 15% 100 200 15% 100 10% 99 10% 100 5% 97 5% 100 0 0% 100 0 0% 91 100 110 120 130 95 100 105 110 115 Distribution (start of interval) Distribution (start of interval) © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
11.
Assigning
More than One Risk to an Activity • If more than one risk is acting on an activity, the resulting ranges are the multiplication of the factors • The activity duration range is derived from the risk factors that affect the risk – Model how the activity duration range is generated – Focus on the causes of activity duration ranges © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
12.
Two Risks affect
One Activity using Factors that Occur 100% 0040 - T echnology Design : Duration 100% 144 95% 130 90% 127 140 85% 124 80% 123 120 75% 121 70% 119 Range 100 65% 118 Cumulative Frequency 60% 117 from 90 to 55% 116 Hits 150 days, 80 50% 115 45% 114 Peak about 60 40% 113 35% 111 113 days 30% 110 40 25% 109 20% 108 15% 106 20 10% 104 5% 102 0 0% 93 100 110 120 130 140 Distribution (sta rt of inte rva l) © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
13.
Two Risks with
Less than 100% Probability Affecting one Activity 0040 - T echnology Design : Duration 1100 100% 144 95% 123 The spike at 1000 90% 119 85% 116 100 days 900 80% 113 75% 111 represents (1) 800 70% 110 the likelihood 700 65% 108 Cumulative Frequency 60% 106 that neither risk 600 55% 104 Hits 50% 102 occurs and (2) 500 45% 101 the chance that 400 40% 100 35% 100 100 days is 300 30% 100 25% 100 picked when 200 20% 100 one or both 100 15% 100 10% 99 occur 5% 97 0 0% 91 100 110 120 130 140 Distribution (sta rt of inte rva l) © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
14.
Risk Factors Model
How Correlation Occurs Coefficients are Calculated (1) Risk #1 P = 50%, Factors .95, 1.05, 1.15 Activity A Activity B Activities A and B Correlation is Calculated to be 100% © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
15.
Risk Factors Model
How Correlation Occurs Coefficients are Calculated (2) Risk #2 Risk #1 Risk #3 P = 25%, Factors P = 50%, Factors P = 45%, Factors .8, .95, 1.05 .95, 1.05, 1.15 1.0, 1.1, 1.2 Activity A Activity B Activities A and B Correlation is Calculated to be 48% Correlation is modeled as it is caused in the project Correlation coefficients are generated, not guessed © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
16.
Sensitivity to the
Risk Factors The tornado diagram focuses on risks, not activities © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
17.
Simple 2-Stage Space
Vehicle Schedule Software used: Pertmaster v. 8 © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
18.
Case Study: Simple
Space Vehicle Development Schedule • 87 month schedule • 11 work activities linked, 3 major milestones • Beginning 3 March 2008 • PDR on 11 September 2009 • CDR on 3 June 2011 • Delivery to launch site 12 June 2015 © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
19.
Two Types of
Risk • Background risk based on typical general risk, estimating error – Used Quick Risk of -5% and +10% • Discrete risks derived from Risk Register – Summarized from detailed Risk Register – These have a probability of occurring and an impact on specific activities if they do – Parallel to their Risk Register information – Risk Register is used in data collection © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
20.
Standard 3-point Range
Representing Schedule Estimating Error Background risk: Optimistic -5% Pessimistic +10% © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
21.
Results with Schedule Estimating
Error Only Spacecraft Program Entire Plan : Finish Date 100% 30/Dec/15 95% 27/Oct/15 400 90% 15/Oct/15 85% 07/Oct/15 80% 30/Sep/15 Deterministic: 75% 24/Sep/15 12JUN15 is <1% 300 70% 18/Sep/15 Cumulative Frequency 65% 14/Sep/15 60% 09/Sep/15 P-80 is 30SEP15, 55% 04/Sep/15 about 3.5 months Hits 200 50% 01/Sep/15 45% 26/Aug/15 later than planned 40% 21/Aug/15 35% 18/Aug/15 Spread from P-5 to 30% 12/Aug/15 P-95 is 5JUL15 to 25% 07/Aug/15 100 20% 31/Jul/15 27OCT15 for 3.7 15% 24/Jul/15 10% 17/Jul/15 months 5% 06/Jul/15 0 0% 14/May/15 31/May/15 08/Sep/15 17/Dec/15 Distribution (start of interval) © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
22.
Risk Analysis on
Space Vehicle Project Risk Factors are from Risk Register Time Impact Range Cost Impact Range Probability Minimum Most Likely Maximum Minimum Most Likely Maximum Requirements have not been 30% 95% 105% 120% decided Several alternative designs 60% 95% 100% 115% considered New designs not yet proven 40% 96% 103% 112% Fabricaton requires new 50% 96% 105% 115% materials Lost know‐how since last full 30% 95% 100% 105% spacecraft Funding from Congress is 70% 90% 105% 115% problematic Schedule for testing is 100% 100% 120% 130% aggressive Cost Risk is based on immature 100% 95% 105% 110% data © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
23.
Mapping Risks to
Activities (1) FS Requirements FS Test FS Risk Preliminary FS Final Design Definition Fabrication Engine Design Requirements Not X Complete Alternative Designs X Possible Designs Not Proven X New Materials in X Fabrication Lost Know-How X Funding Problematic X X X X Testing Schedule X Aggressive Cost Estimate is based on Immature X X X X X Data © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
24.
Mapping Risks to
Activities (2) US US Final Integratio Risk Preliminary US Fabrication US Test Integration Design n Testing Design Requirements Not Complete Alternative Designs X Possible Designs Not X Proven New Materials in X Fabrication Lost Know-How X X Funding X X X X X X Problematic Testing Schedule X X Aggressive Cost Estimate is based on Immature X X X X X X Data © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
25.
Results Adding
Risk Factors to the Background Risk Spacecraft for PMChallenge 2009 Entire Plan : Finish Date 100% 03/May/17 350 95% 05/Oct/16 90% 11/Aug/16 Baseline 12JUN 15 300 85% 01/Jul/16 80% 26/May/16 is only 3% likely 75% 02/May/16 250 The 80th percentile 70% 06/Apr/16 65% 15/Mar/16 (P-80) is 26MAY16, 60% 24/Feb/16 Cumulative Frequency 200 11.5 months later 55% 04/Feb/16 Hits 50% 15/Jan/16 Spread P-5 to P-95 150 45% 30/Dec/15 40% 16/Dec/15 is 13JUL15 to 35% 01/Dec/15 5OCT16, for 15.5 100 30% 16/Nov/15 months 25% 02/Nov/15 20% 15/Oct/15 15% 25/Sep/15 50 10% 27/Aug/15 5% 13/Jul/15 0 0% 21/Jan/15 20/Feb/15 08/Sep/15 26/Mar/16 12/Oct/16 30/Apr/17 Distribution (start of interval) © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
26.
Activity Tornado Chart
from All-In Simulation Spacecraft for PMChallenge 2009 Duration Sensitivity 00025 - US Fabrication 81% Risky Activities: 80% Fabrication, 00011 - FS Fabrication Integration, Final 00028 - Integration 78% Design, Preliminary 00009 - FS Final Design 76% Design, Testing 76% This is the typical 00023 - US Final Design sensitivity analysis of 00021 - US Preliminary Design 69% 3-point estimating 00007 - FS Preliminary Design 69% 00012 - Test FS Engine 63% 00029 - Integration Testing 62% 00026 - US Test 61% © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
27.
Risk Factor Tornado
from All-In Simulation Driving Schedule Risk Factors 6 - Funding from Congress is problematic 4 - Fabricaton requires new materials 3 - New designs not yet proven The main RISK, 7 - Schedule for testing is aggressive however, is funding from Congress, which 5 - Lost know-how since last full spacecraft affects all activities. This is the main risk to 2 - Several alternative designs considered mitigate, if possible 1 - Requirements have not been decided 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 Correlation © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
28.
Contribution of
Each Risk to the Time Contingency (1) Explain the Contingency to the P-80 P-80 Date Contribution of Risk All Risks In 26-May-16 Days Saved % of Contingency Specific Risks Taken Out in Order Funding Risk 22-Jan-16 125 36% Testing Schedule is Aggressive 1-Dec-15 52 15% Design Requires New Materials 28-Oct-15 34 10% New Design Risk 15-Oct-15 13 4% Alternative Design Risk 6-Oct-15 9 3% Requirements Risk 1-Oct-15 5 1% Lost Know How Risk 30-Sep-15 1 0% Background Schedule Estimating Risks Background Risk 12-Jun-15 110 32% Total Contingency 349 100% © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
29.
Contribution of Each Risk
to the Time Contingency (2) g g 100% 90% 26/May /16 01/Dec /15 12/J un/15 01/O c t/15 30/Sep/15 06/O c t/15 16/O c t/15 28/O c t/15 20/J an/16 80% 70% Cum ulative P robability 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 06/ Apr/ 15 15/ Jul/ 15 23/ Oct/ 15 31/ Jan/ 16 10/ May/ 16 18/ Aug/ 16 26/ Nov/ 16 06/ Mar/ 17 © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
30.
Resources and Cost Estimate
is $6.86 billion © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
31.
Cost Risk Results
Spacecraft for PMChallenge 2009 Entire Plan : Cost 100% $9,283,008,684 95% $8,429,356,166 650 90% $8,234,937,806 Baseline $6.86 billion 600 85% $8,088,750,149 is only 5% likely 550 80% $7,976,966,619 75% $7,890,603,866 500 The 80th percentile 70% $7,813,239,105 450 65% $7,749,200,097 (P-80) is $7.98 B for 60% $7,687,432,085 Cumulative Frequency a $1.1 B contingency Hits 400 55% $7,630,117,222 350 50% $7,568,332,545 Spread P-5 to P-95 300 45% $7,514,273,968 is $6.86 to $8.43, for 250 40% $7,452,396,460 35% $7,391,997,593 $1.57 B 200 30% $7,331,963,666 25% $7,258,107,546 150 20% $7,188,049,098 100 15% $7,101,752,271 10% $7,007,130,725 50 5% $6,861,086,752 0 0% $6,189,493,454 $7,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $9,000,000,000 Distribution (start of interval) © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
32.
Contribution of Each Risk
to the Cost Contingency Contributions of Individual Risks to Cost Risk All Risks $ millions Cost Risk is based on immature data 287 Funding from Congress is problematic 277 Fabricaton requires new materials 168 Schedule Estimate inaccurate 110 Schedule for testing is aggressive 63 New designs not yet proven 31 Lost know‐how since last full spacecraft 2 Several alternative designs considered 1 Requirements have not been decided 0 © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
33.
Scatter Diagram of
Time and Cost Spacecraft for PMChallenge 2009 Deterministic Point Inside both limits Outside both limits 3% There is a 94% $9,200,000,000 1% 94% chance of $9,000,000,000 overrunning both $8,800,000,000 cost and $8,600,000,000 schedule $8,400,000,000 Notice the slope $8,200,000,000 of the scatter – $8,000,000,000 Entire Plan: Cost time drives cost $7,800,000,000 in this model $7,600,000,000 $7,400,000,000 $7,200,000,000 $7,000,000,000 5% $6,800,000,000 $6,861,500,000 $6,600,000,000 $6,400,000,000 2% 12/ Jun/ 15 3% $6,200,000,000 20/Feb/15 31/May/15 08/Sep/15 17/Dec/15 26/Mar/16 04/Jul/16 12/Oct/16 20/Jan/17 30/Apr/17 Entire Plan: Finish © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
34.
Probabilistic Cash Flow
Resource Flow for Cost Filter: Entire Plan Mean P20 P80 This monthly 9,000,000,000 probabilistic cash 8,000,000,000 flow can be compared to the Deterministic Cost: $6,861,500,000 7,000,000,000 budget to adjust the 6,000,000,000 spending patterns Cu m u lative 5,000,000,000 when considering D eterm inis tic F inis h: 12/J un/15 risk 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 0 26/ Jul/ 08 11/ Feb/ 09 30/ Aug/ 09 18/ Mar/ 10 04/ Oct/ 10 22/ Apr/ 11 08/ Nov/ 11 26/ May/ 12 12/ Dec/ 12 30/ Jun/ 13 16/ Jan/ 14 04/ Aug/ 14 20/ Feb/ 15 08/ Sep/ 15 26/ Mar/ 16 12/ Oct/ 16 30/ Apr/ 17 Time © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
35.
Probabilistic Cash Flow Compared
to Planned © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
36.
Summary (1) • The
focus is on the risks, not their impact • Risks “explain” the need for a contingency • Management appreciates this focus on risks • Risk interviews are conducted at 10,000 foot level, where people typically think of risk • Interviews go faster, stick to the substance © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
37.
Summary (2) • Use
Risk Register for quantitative analysis • Specific risks can be quantified and assigned to schedule activities – Quantification is probability and impact – A risk can affect several activities – An activity can be affected by several risks • Risk Factors can be combined with other more traditional approaches such as 3-point estimates for background risk or probabilistic branching © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
38.
Summary (3) • Schedule
uncertainty creates cost uncertainty • Analysis of cost simultaneously with time requires inserting the budget/resources into the schedule and simulating both together • More accurate cost risk analysis and full appreciation of the role of schedule risk in creating cost risk © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
39.
Using the Risk
Register in Integrated Cost/Schedule Risk Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation David T. Hulett, Ph.D. Hulett & Associates, LLC Dr. Dan Patterson, PMP Acumenpm NASA PM Challenge Daytona Beach, FL February 24-25, 2009 © 2009 Hulett & Associates, AcumenPM
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