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Overcoming roadblocks to recovery: local strategies
Tom Feltner | Vice President, Policy and Communications
Woodstock Institute | 29 E Madison Suite 1710 | Chicago, Illinois
tfeltner@woodstockinst.org | www.woodstockinst.org
@tfeltner | @woodstockinst | #justeconomy
Regional Quarterly Trends in Foreclosure Filings, 2005 to 2011


   New Foreclosure Filings

    28,000
    24,000
    20,000
    16,000
    12,000
     8,000
     4,000
         4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11


   Completed Foreclosure Auctions
   11,000

    9,000

    7,000

    5,000

    3,000

    1,000
         4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Regional Foreclosure Filings




                               2006

                               2007

                               2008

                               2009
Regional Foreclosure Filings




                               2006

                               2007

                               2008

                               2009
Regional Foreclosure Filings




                               2006

                               2007

                               2008

                               2009
Regional Foreclosure Filings




                               2006

                               2007

                               2008

                               2009
Accumulation of Foreclosure Activity in Communities of Color, 2006 to 2010



30.0%
                                                                                      27.0%
                                                                                              26.3%
25.0%                                                                                                           24.4%
                                                                                                                                      23.2%



20.0%               19.0%

                                                                                                                        15.9%
                                            15.1%
15.0%
                                                                                                                                              12.8%
                                                                     10.9%
                                     9.7%
10.0%        8.7%
                                                              7.0%

 5.0%



 0.0%
        80% or greater African   50% or greater mixed    50% or greater Latino      20-49.9% minority         10-19.9% minority   Less than 10% minority
             American                 Minority

                                            Share of Properties       Share of Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2007
Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2008
Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2009
Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2010
Chicago region foreclosure process times increasing, at record highs since 2008
Strategy #1 – Foreclosure prevention
for homeowners staying in their homes
Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures,
 underwater homeowners




Figure. Foreclosure Filings for Single-family Units in the Six County Chicago Region, by Type
of Mortgage, 2008-2011


                      100%

                       90%

                       80%

                       70%
    Other              60%
    Balloon            50%

    ARM                40%

    FHA/VA             30%

    Conventional       20%

                       10%

                        0%
                                     2008                 2009                 2010             2011
Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures,
underwater homeowners



Figure. Single-family Mortgages Entering Foreclosure in the Six County Chicago Region,
by Period of Origination, 2008-2011

                     100%

                      90%

                      80%

                      70%

                      60%

   2010               50%

   2009               40%
   2008               30%
   2005-2007
                      20%
   Before 2005
                      10%

                       0%
                                   2008                2009                2010          2011
Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures,
  underwater homeowners


Loan-to-value ratios of properties with mortgages in Chicago six county region, fourth
quarter of 2011

                   100%

                    90%

                    80%
  LTV < 75
                    70%
  LTV 75-94
  LTV 95-99         60%
  LTV 100-109       50%
  LTV 110-124
                    40%
  LTV > 125
                    30%

                    20%
Source:
Proprietary data    10%
on negative
equity; 2010         0%
                            10 Percent or   10-19.9 Percent   20-49.9 Percent   50-79.9 Percent   80 Percent or   50 Percent or
Decennial                   less Minority      Minority          Minority          Minority       more African     more Latino
Census                                                                                              American
Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures,
 underwater homeowners



Figure. Average home equity and outstanding mortgage debt per property in the Chicago six
county region, fourth quarter 2011

              $400,000

              $350,000

              $300,000

              $250,000

              $200,000
Mortgage
Equity
              $150,000

              $100,000

               $50,000

                    $0
                         10 Percent or   10-19.9 Percent 20-49.9 Percent 50-79.9 Percent   80 Percent or   50 Percent or
                         less Minority      Minority        Minority        Minority       more African     more Latino
                                                                                             American
Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures,
underwater homeowners
Strategy #2 – Reducing the impact of
vacant properties
Concentration of Unsold Properties in Communities of Color




Disparate Impact of Lender-Owned Properties

    Unsold REO Properties
    64 percent are concentrated in highly African
         American communities


    Absorption Rate
    It will take 25 percent longer for REO properties
           in highly African American communities to
           be absorbed into the market.


    Value Declines
    Highly African American communities saw
         declines of 35 percent, while primarily white
         communities saw declines of 17 percent.
Communities of Color Hardest Hit by Vacant Properties



Vacant Properties Associated with Foreclosure

    Vacant Properties
    18,320 properties identified as vacant or potentially vacant
         by the City of Chicago
    Nearly 70 percent of all vacant properties on the Chicago
         Vacant Buildings Index are associated with a
         foreclosure

    Red Flag Properties
    1,896 properties on the Index are “red flag” properties,
          many of which may be lender walkaways
    71 percent of red flag properties are located in highly
         African American communities, compared to only 7
         percent in predominantly white communities

    Impact
    Shifts approximately $36 million in maintenance costs to
           City of Chicago
Reducing the impact of vacant properties: City of Chicago vacant property ordinance




Ordinance Requirements                                 Status
Mortgagees of vacant buildings to register             In effect since November 2011
within the later of 30 days of becoming
vacant or 60 days after a default.                     Supported by majority servicers

Mortgagees must appoint an agent located               Subject to outstanding lawsuit by FHFA
in Cook County to handle communications
concerning the ordinance.

Mortgagees must maintain and secure
vacant buildings to the standards set by the
City. If not, the mortgagee will be fined
between $500 and $1,000 for each day the
building is in violation of the ordinance.
Overcoming roadblocks to recovery: local strategies
Tom Feltner | Vice President, Policy and Communications
Woodstock Institute | 29 E Madison Suite 1710 | Chicago, Illinois
tfeltner@woodstockinst.org | www.woodstockinst.org

@tfeltner | #justeconomy

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Tom Feltner | Foreclosure Impact and Prevention

  • 1.
  • 2. Overcoming roadblocks to recovery: local strategies Tom Feltner | Vice President, Policy and Communications Woodstock Institute | 29 E Madison Suite 1710 | Chicago, Illinois tfeltner@woodstockinst.org | www.woodstockinst.org @tfeltner | @woodstockinst | #justeconomy
  • 3. Regional Quarterly Trends in Foreclosure Filings, 2005 to 2011 New Foreclosure Filings 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Completed Foreclosure Auctions 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
  • 4. Regional Foreclosure Filings 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 5. Regional Foreclosure Filings 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 6. Regional Foreclosure Filings 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 7. Regional Foreclosure Filings 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 8. Accumulation of Foreclosure Activity in Communities of Color, 2006 to 2010 30.0% 27.0% 26.3% 25.0% 24.4% 23.2% 20.0% 19.0% 15.9% 15.1% 15.0% 12.8% 10.9% 9.7% 10.0% 8.7% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 80% or greater African 50% or greater mixed 50% or greater Latino 20-49.9% minority 10-19.9% minority Less than 10% minority American Minority Share of Properties Share of Properties with Foreclosure Filings
  • 9. Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2007
  • 10. Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2008
  • 11. Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2009
  • 12. Effect of foreclosure accumulation in Englewood and West Englewood, 2010
  • 13. Chicago region foreclosure process times increasing, at record highs since 2008
  • 14. Strategy #1 – Foreclosure prevention for homeowners staying in their homes
  • 15. Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures, underwater homeowners Figure. Foreclosure Filings for Single-family Units in the Six County Chicago Region, by Type of Mortgage, 2008-2011 100% 90% 80% 70% Other 60% Balloon 50% ARM 40% FHA/VA 30% Conventional 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 16. Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures, underwater homeowners Figure. Single-family Mortgages Entering Foreclosure in the Six County Chicago Region, by Period of Origination, 2008-2011 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 2010 50% 2009 40% 2008 30% 2005-2007 20% Before 2005 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 17. Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures, underwater homeowners Loan-to-value ratios of properties with mortgages in Chicago six county region, fourth quarter of 2011 100% 90% 80% LTV < 75 70% LTV 75-94 LTV 95-99 60% LTV 100-109 50% LTV 110-124 40% LTV > 125 30% 20% Source: Proprietary data 10% on negative equity; 2010 0% 10 Percent or 10-19.9 Percent 20-49.9 Percent 50-79.9 Percent 80 Percent or 50 Percent or Decennial less Minority Minority Minority Minority more African more Latino Census American
  • 18. Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures, underwater homeowners Figure. Average home equity and outstanding mortgage debt per property in the Chicago six county region, fourth quarter 2011 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Mortgage Equity $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 10 Percent or 10-19.9 Percent 20-49.9 Percent 50-79.9 Percent 80 Percent or 50 Percent or less Minority Minority Minority Minority more African more Latino American
  • 19. Local strategies need to address unemployment-driven foreclosures, underwater homeowners
  • 20. Strategy #2 – Reducing the impact of vacant properties
  • 21. Concentration of Unsold Properties in Communities of Color Disparate Impact of Lender-Owned Properties Unsold REO Properties 64 percent are concentrated in highly African American communities Absorption Rate It will take 25 percent longer for REO properties in highly African American communities to be absorbed into the market. Value Declines Highly African American communities saw declines of 35 percent, while primarily white communities saw declines of 17 percent.
  • 22. Communities of Color Hardest Hit by Vacant Properties Vacant Properties Associated with Foreclosure Vacant Properties 18,320 properties identified as vacant or potentially vacant by the City of Chicago Nearly 70 percent of all vacant properties on the Chicago Vacant Buildings Index are associated with a foreclosure Red Flag Properties 1,896 properties on the Index are “red flag” properties, many of which may be lender walkaways 71 percent of red flag properties are located in highly African American communities, compared to only 7 percent in predominantly white communities Impact Shifts approximately $36 million in maintenance costs to City of Chicago
  • 23. Reducing the impact of vacant properties: City of Chicago vacant property ordinance Ordinance Requirements Status Mortgagees of vacant buildings to register In effect since November 2011 within the later of 30 days of becoming vacant or 60 days after a default. Supported by majority servicers Mortgagees must appoint an agent located Subject to outstanding lawsuit by FHFA in Cook County to handle communications concerning the ordinance. Mortgagees must maintain and secure vacant buildings to the standards set by the City. If not, the mortgagee will be fined between $500 and $1,000 for each day the building is in violation of the ordinance.
  • 24. Overcoming roadblocks to recovery: local strategies Tom Feltner | Vice President, Policy and Communications Woodstock Institute | 29 E Madison Suite 1710 | Chicago, Illinois tfeltner@woodstockinst.org | www.woodstockinst.org @tfeltner | #justeconomy