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Morpol ASA




    Salmon Demand in Europe
    John-Paul McGinley – Chief Operating Officer

    Havbrukskonferansen, Oslo - 17 November 2011



1
AGENDA

• Introduction to Morpol
• Market update
• Outlook




2
THE LEADING SALMON PROCESSOR IN THE WORLD
                                     Revenue CAGR of 33%, strong EBITDA margin
• Market leader in smoked salmon     (Million EUR)
                                     450             Revenue                                     20

• Consistent quality
                                     400
                                     350             EBITDA %                                    16
                                     300
                                     250                                                         12




                                                                                                      %
• Innovation leader salmon VAP       200
                                     150                             295
                                                                            354
                                                                                   430
                                                                                          344    8
                                                               239
                                     100                                                         4
                                                      152
• 72,000 MTs of raw material
                                      50    105
                                       0                                                         0
                                           2005      2006   2007     2008   2009   2010   YTD
    processed in 2010                                                                      Q3
                                                                                          2011

• Over 3,200 employees

• 22,000MT of salmon farming in UK

• 7,000MT of salmon farming in
    Norway


3
FULLY INTEGRATED BUSINESS PRESENT IN ALL MAIN
   MARKETS FOR SALMON
                                                                       Jøkelfjord Laks
                              Waynor Trading                          Salmon Production                   Morpol USA
       Morpol UK                                                                                          Sales Office
                              Purchasing office
       Sales Office
                                                           Morpol ASA
                                                            Corporate

MeridianSalmon
                                                                        Laurin Seafood
    Salmon
                                                                        Production Site
  Production




                                                                    Morpol
                                                              Main Production Site
Brookside Products
  Production Site
                                                             Laschinger Seafood
                                                                 Sales office



                                                                                          Morpol Japan
         Morpol France                                                                     Sales Office
        Sales logistics and
        distribution centre
                                                            Morpol Italia
                                                            Sales office
                               Laschinger Seafood
                              Logistics and distribution
                                        centre


   4
MORPOL MISSION & CORE VALUES

• Mission
    • .....to be the most efficient producer of value
        added salmon products, exceeding customer
        expectations with excellent products that are
        attractive and convenient for consumers and
        food service. Morpol will continuously innovate in
        product concept, equipment design and food
        safety to set the performance standards for the
        industry.
• Core values
    •   Quality
    •   Reliability
    •   Innovation
    •   Convenience
    •   Value for money
    •   Food safety

5
OUR PRODUCTS




6
MARKET UPDATE




7
SALMON PRICES SPIKED IN 2009/2010

                                              NOS Price - Average all sizes
               50
                           NOS Salmon Price
               45
                           Linear (NOS Salmon
               40          Price)


               35
    NOK / KG




               30

               25

               20

               15

               10
                    2002



                           2003



                                      2004



                                                 2005



                                                        2006



                                                               2007



                                                                      2008



                                                                              2009



                                                                                     2010



                                                                                            2011
8
SALMON PRICES CONTINUED DECLINE Q3
           Prices averaged NOK 26/kg in quarter

                              NOS Salmon Price (Ex Oslo) - Average all sizes
           50
                                                                               2011
           45                                                                  2010
                                                                               2009

           40
NOK / KG




           35


           30


           25


           20


           15
                 22




                 43
                 10
                 11
                 12
                 13
                 14
                 15
                 16
                 17
                 18
                 19
                 20
                 21
                 23
                 24
                 25
                 26
                 27
                 28
                 29
                 30
                 31
                 32
                 33
                 34
                 35
                 36
                 37
                 38
                 39
                 40
                 41
                 42
                 44
                 45
                 46
                 47
                 48
                 49
                 50
                 51
                 52
                  1
                  2
                  3
                  4
                  5
                  6
                  7
                  8
                  9




           9    Source: NOS
SALMON IS NOW CHEAP RELATIVE TO OTHER
PROTEINS




10   Source: DNB / IndexMundi
BUT RETAIL PRICES REMAIN HIGH
Monthly Average prices, Jan 2000 – Oct 2011




11   Source: Kontali
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Harvest volumes – Atlantic Salmon (tonnes WFE)


                                     2009       2010       Change 2011E Change 2012E Change
            Norway                     856        945        10%     987      4%    1074    9%
            Chile                      239        130       (46%)    227     75%     342   51%
            UK                         145        142        (2%)    157     11%     149   (5%)
            Canada                     115        118         2%     109     (8%)    112    3%
            USA                         16         18        10%      19      3%      19    4%
            Faroe
            Islands                     48         42       (12%)     57     35%      64   12%
            Australia                   32         33         2%      36      9%      38    6%
            Ireland                     15         18        20%      16    (10%)     16    0%
            Others                          2          1    (18%)      2     50%       2    0%
            Total                    1 468      1 446        (1%)   1 608    11%    1815   13%


12   Source: Kontali Nov 18th 2011
INCREASED SUPPLY OF ATLANTIC SALMON IN 2011
AND 2012
                                                           Atlantic salmon supply
• 2011 Worldwide supply +11%
                                                          2009 – 2012E (000’s MT)
  • Increase of 1 percentage point since
          previous estimate




                                                                               +13%
•    EU supply +7%                          2000




                                                                       +11%
•    USA supply +9%                         1800




                                                                -4%
                                                                               53
                                                                              135
•    Increased supply in all main markets   1600                       41
•    2012 Worldwide supply +13%                    40
                                                   78           34
                                                                      115
                                                                              324     JAPAN:
                                            1400
                                                               100
                                                                      283             RUSSIA:
                                                   281
                                            1200               257
                                                                              432     USA:
                                            1000                      373
                                                   340                                ALL OTHERS:
                                                               318
                                            800
                                                                                      EU:
                                            600

                                            400                               872
                                                   766         737    795

                                            200

                                              0
                                                   2009       2010    2011E   2012E




13   Source: Kontali Nov 18th 2011
ESTIMATED QUARTERLY GROWTH 2012E
CAGR: 2009 – 2012E PER QUARTER
Y-o-Y growth is only part of the story due to low volumes in 2010




14   Source: Kontali Nov 18th 2011
RETAIL SALES OF SALMON – YTD Q3
Consumers have reacted negatively to higher prices in salmon

                        YTD Q3 2011 versus YTD Q3 2010

                                             Fresh                     Smoked

                                       Volume         Price        Volume         Price
                                     development   development   development   development


                        France       -14.5%          +5%          -2.6%         6.2%

                        Germany        -3%          +8.4%         -2.2%         6.9%

                        UK             -7%          +5.5%         -6.4%        +6.2 %




15   Source: Europanel / NSEC
RETAIL SALES OF SALMON – Q3
Consumers have not yet got the full benefit of raw material price decreases

                        Q3 2011 versus Q3 2010

                                             Fresh                     Smoked

                                       Volume         Price        Volume         Price
                                     development   development   development   development


                        France        +5.7%         -7.2%         -8.8%         10.6%

                        Germany       +34%          -4.6%         4.2%          5.6%

                        UK             -1%           +1%          -3.4%          -3 %


         • Clear evidence in the quarter that recent price decreases have had a positive impact
              on demand
         • In Germany we have seen a price drop from Q2 2011 to Q3 2011

16   Source: Europanel / NSEC
GERMANY
Retail sales of smoked salmon
                                                                                 Retail price moved
                                                                                from €2.99 to €2.69*
           4 500
                                                          Retail price moved
           4 000                                         from €3.19 to €2.99*
                         Retail price moved
           3 500        from €2.79 to €2.99*

           3 000                                Retail price moved
                                               from €2.99 to €3.19*                                    2008
 MT p.w.




           2 500
                                                                                                       2009
           2 000                                                                                       2010
           1 500                                                                                       2011

           1 000
            500
              -
                        Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
     Source: Europanel / NSEC
17
     *200g pack smoked salmon
FRANCE
Retail sales of smoked salmon

               5 000
               4 500
               4 000
               3 500
               3 000                                                           2008
     MT p.w.




               2 500                                                           2009
               2 000                                                           2010
                                                                               2011
               1 500
               1 000
                500
                  -
                         P01 P02 P03 P04 P05 P06 P07 P08 P09 P10 P11 P12 P13

18   Source: Europanel / NSEC
OUTLOOK




19
THE WAY FORWARD
Salmon fits with the global mega trends




20
LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES
INNOVATION
Sashimi slices     Salmon Trout




21
LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES
INNOVATION
Pasta Salmon       “Look, no brown meat!”




22
LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES
INNOVATION
Infusions          Additions




23
LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES
INNOVATION
Paper packed Scottish organic   Smoked Scottish salmon loin
salmon




24
SALMON DEMAND WILL PICK UP IN EUROPE

Demand will pick up as lower prices
reach the consumer

• Supply increases will keep raw
     material prices under pressure
• End product prices will have to
     come down
• Lower prices to end consumer
• Demand for (smoked) salmon
     expected to increase
• As an industry we must focus on
     the customer
• Stable quality
• Stable pricing

25
THANK YOU




26
APPENDIX




27
WHAT IS DEMAND?

                  Elements of the Law of Demand
                  • The quantity of a well-defined good
                    or service that:
                  • People are willing and able to buy.
                  • During a particular period of time.
                  • Decreases/increases as the price of
                    that good or service rises/falls
                  • All other factors remain constant.




28

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John Paul Mc-Ginley - CEO Morpol ASA - Salmon Demand in Europe

  • 1. Morpol ASA Salmon Demand in Europe John-Paul McGinley – Chief Operating Officer Havbrukskonferansen, Oslo - 17 November 2011 1
  • 2. AGENDA • Introduction to Morpol • Market update • Outlook 2
  • 3. THE LEADING SALMON PROCESSOR IN THE WORLD Revenue CAGR of 33%, strong EBITDA margin • Market leader in smoked salmon (Million EUR) 450 Revenue 20 • Consistent quality 400 350 EBITDA % 16 300 250 12 % • Innovation leader salmon VAP 200 150 295 354 430 344 8 239 100 4 152 • 72,000 MTs of raw material 50 105 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD processed in 2010 Q3 2011 • Over 3,200 employees • 22,000MT of salmon farming in UK • 7,000MT of salmon farming in Norway 3
  • 4. FULLY INTEGRATED BUSINESS PRESENT IN ALL MAIN MARKETS FOR SALMON Jøkelfjord Laks Waynor Trading Salmon Production Morpol USA Morpol UK Sales Office Purchasing office Sales Office Morpol ASA Corporate MeridianSalmon Laurin Seafood Salmon Production Site Production Morpol Main Production Site Brookside Products Production Site Laschinger Seafood Sales office Morpol Japan Morpol France Sales Office Sales logistics and distribution centre Morpol Italia Sales office Laschinger Seafood Logistics and distribution centre 4
  • 5. MORPOL MISSION & CORE VALUES • Mission • .....to be the most efficient producer of value added salmon products, exceeding customer expectations with excellent products that are attractive and convenient for consumers and food service. Morpol will continuously innovate in product concept, equipment design and food safety to set the performance standards for the industry. • Core values • Quality • Reliability • Innovation • Convenience • Value for money • Food safety 5
  • 8. SALMON PRICES SPIKED IN 2009/2010 NOS Price - Average all sizes 50 NOS Salmon Price 45 Linear (NOS Salmon 40 Price) 35 NOK / KG 30 25 20 15 10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8
  • 9. SALMON PRICES CONTINUED DECLINE Q3 Prices averaged NOK 26/kg in quarter NOS Salmon Price (Ex Oslo) - Average all sizes 50 2011 45 2010 2009 40 NOK / KG 35 30 25 20 15 22 43 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 Source: NOS
  • 10. SALMON IS NOW CHEAP RELATIVE TO OTHER PROTEINS 10 Source: DNB / IndexMundi
  • 11. BUT RETAIL PRICES REMAIN HIGH Monthly Average prices, Jan 2000 – Oct 2011 11 Source: Kontali
  • 12. GLOBAL PRODUCTION OUTLOOK Harvest volumes – Atlantic Salmon (tonnes WFE) 2009 2010 Change 2011E Change 2012E Change Norway 856 945 10% 987 4% 1074 9% Chile 239 130 (46%) 227 75% 342 51% UK 145 142 (2%) 157 11% 149 (5%) Canada 115 118 2% 109 (8%) 112 3% USA 16 18 10% 19 3% 19 4% Faroe Islands 48 42 (12%) 57 35% 64 12% Australia 32 33 2% 36 9% 38 6% Ireland 15 18 20% 16 (10%) 16 0% Others 2 1 (18%) 2 50% 2 0% Total 1 468 1 446 (1%) 1 608 11% 1815 13% 12 Source: Kontali Nov 18th 2011
  • 13. INCREASED SUPPLY OF ATLANTIC SALMON IN 2011 AND 2012 Atlantic salmon supply • 2011 Worldwide supply +11% 2009 – 2012E (000’s MT) • Increase of 1 percentage point since previous estimate +13% • EU supply +7% 2000 +11% • USA supply +9% 1800 -4% 53 135 • Increased supply in all main markets 1600 41 • 2012 Worldwide supply +13% 40 78 34 115 324 JAPAN: 1400 100 283 RUSSIA: 281 1200 257 432 USA: 1000 373 340 ALL OTHERS: 318 800 EU: 600 400 872 766 737 795 200 0 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 13 Source: Kontali Nov 18th 2011
  • 14. ESTIMATED QUARTERLY GROWTH 2012E CAGR: 2009 – 2012E PER QUARTER Y-o-Y growth is only part of the story due to low volumes in 2010 14 Source: Kontali Nov 18th 2011
  • 15. RETAIL SALES OF SALMON – YTD Q3 Consumers have reacted negatively to higher prices in salmon YTD Q3 2011 versus YTD Q3 2010 Fresh Smoked Volume Price Volume Price development development development development France -14.5% +5% -2.6% 6.2% Germany -3% +8.4% -2.2% 6.9% UK -7% +5.5% -6.4% +6.2 % 15 Source: Europanel / NSEC
  • 16. RETAIL SALES OF SALMON – Q3 Consumers have not yet got the full benefit of raw material price decreases Q3 2011 versus Q3 2010 Fresh Smoked Volume Price Volume Price development development development development France +5.7% -7.2% -8.8% 10.6% Germany +34% -4.6% 4.2% 5.6% UK -1% +1% -3.4% -3 % • Clear evidence in the quarter that recent price decreases have had a positive impact on demand • In Germany we have seen a price drop from Q2 2011 to Q3 2011 16 Source: Europanel / NSEC
  • 17. GERMANY Retail sales of smoked salmon Retail price moved from €2.99 to €2.69* 4 500 Retail price moved 4 000 from €3.19 to €2.99* Retail price moved 3 500 from €2.79 to €2.99* 3 000 Retail price moved from €2.99 to €3.19* 2008 MT p.w. 2 500 2009 2 000 2010 1 500 2011 1 000 500 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Europanel / NSEC 17 *200g pack smoked salmon
  • 18. FRANCE Retail sales of smoked salmon 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2008 MT p.w. 2 500 2009 2 000 2010 2011 1 500 1 000 500 - P01 P02 P03 P04 P05 P06 P07 P08 P09 P10 P11 P12 P13 18 Source: Europanel / NSEC
  • 20. THE WAY FORWARD Salmon fits with the global mega trends 20
  • 21. LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES INNOVATION Sashimi slices Salmon Trout 21
  • 22. LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES INNOVATION Pasta Salmon “Look, no brown meat!” 22
  • 23. LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES INNOVATION Infusions Additions 23
  • 24. LONG TERM CONSUMPTION GROWTH REQUIRES INNOVATION Paper packed Scottish organic Smoked Scottish salmon loin salmon 24
  • 25. SALMON DEMAND WILL PICK UP IN EUROPE Demand will pick up as lower prices reach the consumer • Supply increases will keep raw material prices under pressure • End product prices will have to come down • Lower prices to end consumer • Demand for (smoked) salmon expected to increase • As an industry we must focus on the customer • Stable quality • Stable pricing 25
  • 28. WHAT IS DEMAND? Elements of the Law of Demand • The quantity of a well-defined good or service that: • People are willing and able to buy. • During a particular period of time. • Decreases/increases as the price of that good or service rises/falls • All other factors remain constant. 28