1. Applying Structured Dynamic Risk and Protective Assessment (DRAOR) with Parolees NZPS Queenstown 2011 Nick J Wilson, PhD Psychological Research Psychological Services, RRS

8. DRAOR-NZ Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, Mailloux & Wilson 2010)

9. A Balanced Approach

11. Factors considered in DRAOR Social support Interpersonal relationships Attachment with others Living situation Social control Employment Sense of entitlement Cost/Benefit Negative mood Problem-solving High expectations Opportunity/access to victims Impulse Control Prosocial identity Anger/hostility Attitude to authority Responsive to advice Substance abuse Peer associations Protective Acute Stable

16. Total STABLE Risk / 12 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Connected/concerned about others (0)- Callous/indifferent towards others (2) Attachment with Others 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Recognition of their limitations (0) -Inflated sense of self worth (2) Sense of Entitlement 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Ability to make good decisions (0) – No consideration of consequences (2) Problem-Solving 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Autonomous/self monitoring (0) – Highly impulsive (2) Self-Regulation 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Prosocial attitudes (0) – Antagonistic attitudes (2) Attitudes Towards Authority 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Has only prosocial peers (0) – Has only antisocial peers (2) Peer Associations SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR STABLE RISK INDICATORS Characteristics associated with risk and capable of changing over months or years.

17. Total ACUTE Risk / 14 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Stable and positive living situation (0) – Instability/Lack of accommodations (2) Living Situation 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem In a stable healthy relationship (0) – Conflicted relationship (2) Interpersonal Relationships 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Maintaining a job (0) – Unemployed (2) Employment 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem No evidence of depression/anxiety (0) – Marked presence of depression/anxiety (2) Negative Mood 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Avoidance of preferred victims (0) – Access to preferred victims (2) Opportunity/Access to Victims 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Absence of anger/hostility (0) – Marked presence of anger/hostility (2) Anger/Hostility 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Maintaining sobriety/social use (0) – Problematic substance abuse (2) Substance Abuse SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR ACUTE RISK INDICATORS Characteristics associated with risk and capable of changing in the short term (<1 month).

18. Total PROTECTIVE / 12 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Conformity and compliance with prosocial others; Strong internalized connection/bonds. Social Control 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Evidence that meaningful and accessible prosocial supports exist. Social Support 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Evidence that rewards of prosocial behaviour outweigh those of procriminal behaviour. Costs/Benefits 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Individual, family, and/or community have high expectations of success. High Expectations 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Legitimately views self as no longer criminally oriented with behavioural examples. Prosocial Identity 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Follows direction from prosocial peers, partners, supervisor, etc.. Responsive to Advice SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR PROTECTIVE FACTORS Characteristics that may buffer risk.

21. Example Peter- Stable 11/12 Stable Risk Factor Total 2 Definite Problem Attachment with Others 2 Definite Problem Sense of Entitlement 2 Definite Problem Problem Solving 2 Definite Problem Impulse Control 2 Definite Problem Attitudes Towards Authority 1 Slight/Possible problem Peer Associations

22. Peter- Acute 11/14 Acute Risk Factor Total 1 Slight/Possible problem Living Situation 2 Definite problem Interpersonal Relationships 2 Definite problem Employment 1 Slight/Possible problem Negative Mood 2 Definite problem Opportunity/Access to Victims 2 Definite problem Anger/Hostility 1 Slight/Possible problem Substance Abuse Acute Risk Factor

23. Peter- Protective 2/12 Protective Factor Total 0 Not an asset Social Control 1 Slight/Possible asset Social Support 0 Not an asset Costs/Benefits 0 Not an asset High Expectations 1 Slight/Possible asset Prosocial Identity 0 Not an asset Responsive to Advice Protective Factor

31. Correlations between offender age, static risk, and initial scores on DRAOR dynamic risk and protective factors ** p < .01 1.00 -0.56** -0.67** -0.24** -0.081 Protective --- 1.00 0.67** 0.24** -0.046 Acute --- --- 1.00 0.27** -0.085 Stable --- --- --- 1.00 -0.37** RoC*RoI --- --- --- --- 1.00 Age Protective Acute Stable RoC*RoI Age Variables

33. Discriminant Functional Analysis- Any Reoffending .526 Acute -.537 Protective -.558 Age .675 Stable .752 RoC*RoI Function Structure Matrix .000 278 3 21.11 .814 Age 3 .000 279 2 28.40 .831 Stable 2 .000 280 1 37.46 .882 RoC*RoI 1 Sig. df2 df1 Statistic Statistic Entered Exact F Wilks' Lambda Step Variables Entered/Removed

34. Discriminant Functional Analysis- Any Reimprisonment .028 Age .246 RoC*RoI -.560 Protective .661 Stable 1.000 Acute 1 Function Structure Matrix 0.001 176 1 11.91 176 1 1 0.937 Acute 1 Sig. df2 df1 Statistic Exact F df3 df2 df1 Statistic Wilks' Lambda Entered Step Variables Entered/Removed

35. Repeat DRAOR Stable scrs and any reoffending .887 .686 .000 .051 .787 Stable 4 .890 .676 .000 .055 .783 Stable 3 .863 .647 .000 .055 .755 Stable 2 .816 .574 .002 .062 .695 Stable 1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. b Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve

36. Repeat DRAOR Acute scrs and reimprisonment .883 .677 .003 .053 .780 Acute 3 .864 .648 .007 .055 .756 Acute 2 .911 .634 .004 .071 .772 Acute 1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. b Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve

37. Repeat DRAOR Protective scrs and any reoffending .725 .526 .019 .051 .625 Protective3 .741 .545 .007 .050 .643 Protective2 .757 .555 .003 .052 .656 Protective1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve

38. Survival Analysis- Any Reoffending by DRAOR Stable Score Group

39. Future Focus- Evidence Directed Intervention

40. Keystone Model Intervention/monitoring Target Selection Using DRAOR scenarios

43. Connections for Peter’s keystone arch and assault on Rachel ???? Poor ability manage anger Pattern of bullying women Concern over relationship ending Uncertain about future Victim likely be partner Will use knife if threatened Substance abuse- binging? Wants to be dad and have family

47. Family (other than marriage or parenting): How do you want to interact with your family or whanau members? What type of sister or brother do you want to be? What type of son or daughter do you want to be? John reported that he has a younger brother and sister but had little contact with most of his family for some years. His parents who he said were violent and abusive died some years ago, John said that prior to their death he was able to reconcile with them both. However, he does have contact with his aunt and uncle who live near his home marae and he had intended to live near them after release but the address was not approved. John has also retained links to his home marae and has a history of effective engagement with interventions delivered from Maori organisations. How important is this area to you? 0 = not at all important 1 = moderately important 2 = very important Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality and depth of your experience in this area of life? 0 = not at all satisfied 1 = moderately satisfied 2 = very satisfied How often have you done something to move you forward in this area during the last week or since last reporting? 0 = no action 1 = once or twice 2 = three or four times 3 = more than four times Intention : To keep in touch with my Aunt and Uncle by phone and to re-engage with my younger brother and sister Barriers :?????

48. Parenting: What type of parent do you want to be? How do you want to interact with your children? John has a 7 year old son with whom he has not had contact since the boy was 2. He has consistently wanted contact and grieves for not being in his son’s life but says his son would not know him now but hopes that in the future he can build a relationship. John is excited about a possible parenting role with his new partners 2 year old son, sees this as a another chance to be a dad. He is determined to not be like his father was to him and for children he parents to feel safe and supported. Importance : 0 = not at all important 1 = moderately important 2 = very important Satisfaction : 0 = not at all satisfied 1 = moderately satisfied 2 = very satisfied Actions (last week/reporting): 0 = no action 1 = once or twice 2 = three or four times 3 = more than four times Intention : To have frequent contact with his partners boy and to play with him and help with his care Barriers : ????

49. LIFE COMPASS- ‘John’ 2 Just started new relationship with ‘Mary ’ Excited about parenting partners 2 year old boy. Second chance 3 2 3 1 0 No/little contact immediate family, some contact extended whanau One close friend prohibited contact, gang loyalty impt 1 0 2 3 Aging, watching weight wants to weight train, needs training partner Past affiliation with Pentecostal Church, sees self as Christian 0 0 Volunteered for his local Marae in past Ngati Whatua 1 0 2 1 Physical, immediate reward, own business 0 0 Doesn’t like classroom learning, hands on Limited, likes league /gang connections 1 1

50. Integrity challenges