From "Introduction to the Scientific Study of Psychic Phenomena" on http://www.wiziq.com. Three more live classes this month, four more in January, eight recordings available from April and July. Join us!

1. Precognition Research
in Scientific Parapsychology
Nancy L. Zingrone, PhD
www.theazire.org
The AZIRE Learning Center in Second Life
SLURL: http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Madhupak/153/89/60

2. Today’s Class Topics
• Precognition Cases and Case Collections
• Precognition Experiments

3. Extrasensory Perception (ESP)
Telepathy
Clairvoyance
Precognition

4. Precognition
A form of ESP in which the target is some
future event that cannot be deduced from
normally known data in the present.
M. A. Thalbourne, A Glossary of Terms Used in
Parapsychology (2003)

5. Precognition
O An undefined sense that something
terrible is going to happen (or something
wonderful)
O A uncharacteristic change in behavior that
seems to avoid some danger
O A realistic vision or dream that brings
details of something on the horizon
O A sudden sense of knowing that moves
you to do something altogether different
— to save yourself, or others

6. Larry Dossey,
The Science of Premonitions (2010)
“The non-sensory, non-inferred
foreknowledge of a future event is
precognition or premonition.”
Larry Dossey

7. Cases
“Precognitive experiences are probably
nearly as common as acorns under oak trees.”
Louisa E. Rhine
ESP in Life and Lab, 1967

8. Form of Experience
Dreams (literal, symbolic)
Intuition / Impressions
Bad Feelings / Anxiety
Hallucinations
(visual, auditory, other)
Motor Automatisms

9. Herodotus on King Croesus
(reigned c. 560–546)
Croesus sent delegates
to the oracle of Delphi
asking if he should
attack the Persians.
According to Herodotus
they were told “that if he
should march against the Persians he
should destroy a great empire” (I: 53).

10. Abraham Lincoln’s Dream
W. H. Lamon, Recollections of Abraham Lincoln (1895)
“I heard subdued sobs, as if a number of people
were weeping. I thought I left my bed and
wandered downstairs . . . What could be the
meaning of all this? . . . I kept on until I arrived
at the East Room, which I entered . . . Before
me was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse
wrapped in funeral vestments . . . 'Who is dead
in the White House?' I demanded of one of the
soldiers. 'The President,' was his answer; 'he
was
killed by an assassin!„ ”

11. Butler-Dwyer Dream Case: 1959
Rita Dwyer: Research chemist.
Edward M. Butler: Rita‟s co-worker.
Rocket fuel exploded in Dwyer's lab,
she was badly burned.
Butler rescued her from the fire.
Rita Dwyer
Butler had a recurring dream about saving Dwyer from a
fire. He saved Dwyer‟s life doing exactly what he had
"rehearsed" in the dream.

17. Some Pre-Rhine Research
O Publication of individual cases in the SPR
proceedings (first one by Dr. William Barrett, in
1884)
O Publication of case collections (first one by
Eleanor Sidgwick, 250 cases considered, in
1888; then Myers, 85 cases considered, in
1895 and Saltmarsh, 50 years worth of
published cases considered, in 1934)
O Dream experiment conducted with volunteers
(first one by Theodore Besterman, 3 series, 43
subjects, 430 dreams, 45 of which were
precognitive, in 1932)

18. Eleanor M. Sidgwick’s 1889 Study of Cases
Sidgwick, E. (1889). On
the evidence for premonitions.
Proceedings of the Society for
Psychical Research.
Evidence from dreams suggestive,
but not conclusive for
premonitions
Eleanor M. Sidgwick
(1845-1936)
Dreams about:
Death, Accidents, Winners of races,
Trivial Incidents, Symbolic Dreams

19. Pre-Rhine research approaches:
O Emphasized analytical treatment of cases
for the purpose of uncovering features,
patterns, types, possible conventional
explanations
O Experimental work focused on single
individuals, or groups of individuals
engaged in a free response task such as
dream telepathy, drawing experiments
O Advantages: Closer to “life”
O Disadvantages: Difficult to establish as
evidence

20. Saltmarsh’s “Perfect Precognitive Case”:
O Case must have been told or recorded prior to
O
O
O
O
O
the event precognized
Include details so that chance foreknowledge
is precluded
Narrow limits of time for fulfillment, and
narrow description of place or event
Not inferable from knowledge gathered by
conventional senses
No one else has knowledge of the event, so
that telepathy could be ruled out
Excluded hyperesthesia

21. Enter the Rhines …

22. The remit:
O To take the spontaneous phenomena of
experience and mediumship and operationalize
it for laboratory testing:
O Variations on a card-guessing regime:
O Telepathy: One sender concentrating on a card,
one receiver guessing the card, a statistically
analyzable matching of “call” to “card
O Clairvoyance: One perceiver guessing at hidden
cards
O Precognition: Calls recorded before cards were
prepared for guessing

23. Research problems
peculiar to precognition:
O If precognition exists, how do we
know a clairvoyance test
measures clairvoyance and not
precognition?
O What if an experimental
participant is seeing the next
target or something else?
O Do experimental results really
tell us something about
spontaneous experiences?

24. Still, the results were very good …
O Strong evidence in
the Rhine team‟s data
for positive scoring in
experiments with a
precognitive set-up
over life of the
lab, with unselected
subjects
O Meta-analysis from
1935-1987, still
strong evidence:
O 309 studies
O 42 investigators
O 2 millions trials
O 50,000 subjects
O Overall z = 11.41,
wildly significant

26. Stanley Krippner & Montague Ullman
(1960s)

27. “The Descent
From the Cross”
Max Beckmann,
1917, Oil on Canvas
Target for a
Successful
Dream Telepathy
Session

29. From recent Parapsychological Association conventions …
O Prof Chris Roe, Andrew Hodrien & Laurrie Kirkwood
(England) at the 2012 Convention (Durham, NC)
O Tested 40 participants on Precognitive Remote
O
O
O
O
Viewing and Precognition Ganzfeld
Target pool = 40 target sites using Google‟s interactive
maps (10 sets of 4) chosen for
distinctiveness, aesthetics and interest
30% hit rate for the RV trials
35% hit rate for the Ganzfeld trials
No correlations with personality, experience, but
participants who were more absorbed in the task, less
physiologically aroused and had less internal dialogue
did better

30. Results of free-response precognition
tests overall …
O Dream studies since
Maimonides
significant but less
strong than
Maimonides
O At-home dream
studies show strong
effects, less costs,
less logistical
complications
O Meta-analysis from
1935-1997 showed a
stronger significance
for precognitive
experiments than
clairvoyance, but
similar effect sizes

31. From recent Parapsychological Association conventions …
O Jon Taylor (Spain): The Nature of Precognition
(presented at the 2013 conference in
Viterbo, Italy)
O Precognition is the fundamental form of psychic
functioning.
O Precognition is more likely to occur when the future
event produces a strong emotional impact.
O Precognition is more likely to occur when the time
interval between “now” and “then” is shorter.
O Belief in precognition has an impact on results in
laboratory tests.

32. Main presentiment researchers …
Dean Radin, IONs
Julia Mossbridge, Northwestern
Dick Bierman, Amsterdam/Utrecht
Patrizio Tressoldi, Padova

33. More basic elements …
O Standardized Target Pool of 600-700 photos
O Emotional (sometimes violent or erotic) targets
O Calm targets
O Task presentation:
O Target selected and shown for 3 seconds
O 10 second inter-trial period
O Repeat 30-40 trials in one sitting, about 15 minutes
O Continuous recording of physiology detection
variable

34. Common hypotheses and analysis …
O That prior to the appearance of the target
picture, the participant‟s physiological activity
changes
O Changes to higher arousal in advance of seeing an
emotional photo
O No changes in arousal in advance of seeing a calm
photo
O Analysis focuses on:
O Continuous recording of the physiology shows a
statistically significant increase in arousal levels 3-4
seconds prior to the target picture appearance

35. Meta-analysis results from Mossbridge,
Tressoldi & Utts …
O 26 studies from 1978 through 2010
O Results provide strong evidence for a presentiment
effect
O Studies show consistency across
experimenters, laboratories, language
groups, detection methods
O Effect Size is small
O More work needs to be done on alternative
explanations
O More work needs to be done on the presentiment
process

36. But What Else Could It Be?
Coincidence
Failures to Predict
ignored
Subconscious use of
currently available
information
(sensory / via ESP)
Psychokinesis

37. Implications
Expansion of Perception
Can the Future Be
Changed?
The Nature of Time
Implications for Free Will

38. Thanks for your Attention!
email: nancy@theazire.org
www.theazire.org
The AZIRE Learning Center in Second Life
SLURL: http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Madhupak/153/89/60