Non linear prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters

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5. Different approaches are used for prediction of the Earth rotation parameters. The IERS product center uses the following techniques : x Polar Motion: The formalism uses at first a floating period fit (Bevington, 1969 [2]) for both the Chandler and annual components estimation over a past time interval of several years. An autoregressive filter is then applied on the short-term residuals series and used for the prediction. The predictions of the nutation offsets d and dH H are based on an empirical model (Conventions 1996). x Universal Time: The present formalism used is based on the assumption that the long- term fluctuations (annual and semi-annual) of the preceding year are valid over the next few months. For short-term variations prediction, an autoregressive process is used. , , , ,Q Q Q QW W W WU U U UR R R RG G G GX X X XF F F FW W W WL L L LR R R RQ Q Q Q

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Non linear prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters

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