Climate Change, Petrol Peak & Economic Crisis have been called the 3Es of Collapse: Environmental, Energetic & Economic.
*
It is important to be well informed about the basic facts & science of these, how they interconnect, their causes & predictable effects.
*
But also explore what cultural & inner meanings are being proposed & how we can turn these crises into opportunities.
*
In this class we look at these issues in some detail.
*
What does all this mean for us as integral designers for sustainability?
The Role of Taxonomy and Ontology in Semantic Layers - Heather Hedden.pdf
PDC+++ Module 4 Class 1 Peak
1. +
M d l 4o t eP
o ue
PDC
f h DC+ + +
+ + Energy & EcoTechnology
We dedicate this Module to the Mother &
Father of Integral Permaculture: Dana
Class Meadows & Howard Odum, two original
pioneers who helped humanity make
M4.1 great strides in understanding systemic
thinking, in all four quadrants.
Peak
Climate Change, Petrol Peak & Economic Crisis have been called the 3Es
of Collapse: Environmental, Energetic & Economic.
*
It is important to be well informed about the basic facts & science of these,
how they interconnect, their causes & predictable effects.
*
But also explore what cultural & inner meanings are being proposed &
how we can turn these crises into opportunities.
*
In this class we look at these issues in some detail.
*
What does all this mean for us as integral designers for sustainability?
2. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
3. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
4. “In times of
extraordinary POPULATION
change, GROWTH
&
BIODIVERSITY
the problem is
EXTINCTION
NOT that we
can't achieve
all that we can
dream, PEAK OIL
2000 CLIMATE
2020 CHANGE
but that we
DON'T dream all
that we could MONETARY
CRISIS
achieve.” &
RAISE OF THE
(Dee Hock) INFORMATION
AGE
5. Peak of Petrol Extraction
“Initially there was only a fixed and finite amount of oil in the
ground, and that, as exploitation proceeds, the amount of oil
remaining diminishes monotonically.”
M.King Hubbert
6. Oil formed some 90-150 million years ago,
& there is a FINITE quantity
The extraction of all finite resources
(eg. oil wells)
follow the Hubbert Curve
Peak oil is reached when HALF of
the resource has been used:
> then the cost of extraction get
increasingly higher as profits
diminish
(Peak = end of CHEAP oil)
7. Remember from Resources Class
M2.5 About Stocks
Stock - a place where energy is stored: eg. resources like forest
biomass, soil, organic matter, coal, oxides, etc.
Non-Renewables Renewables
eg. chemicals, minerals eg. biological
(petrol, coal, copper, etc.)
(forests, fish, water, etc.)
4) REDUCE with use
5) CAUSE POLLUTION when used
1) INCREASE when used moderately
Use 4 & 5 only 2) are NOT affected by use
to create
3) DISAPPEAR / DEGRADE if not used
infrastructure
14. Ca b nCy l
ro ce
Atmosphere
retains almost 750 GtC = Giga tons of Carbon
Energy and GtC 1 Gt = 1 Billion tons
Global
Warming
Dead
Organisms Vegetation almost 600 GtC
Soils 1600 GtC
Oceans 40.000 GtC
Fossil CO2
15. Carbon Concentration in the Atmosphere
XX & XXI
392 ppm centuries
2011
End of Industrial
last Ice Era
Age
Start of
Agriculture
Transition Training 2007
PPM = Parts Per Million ..... 350 is a top max limit
see >>
16. POPULATION
GROWTH
&
BIODIVERSITY
EXTINCTION Why do we think &
PEAK 2000
CLIMAT act as if these
E
OIL 2020
CHANGE major trends are
ECONOMIC
somehow separate?
CRISIS
17. Two examples of dis-connected things
(in our current way of thinking)
Matter/Energy ~ Money
Humanity ~ Nature
Source: http://emergysystems.org
19. Physical Laws of the Universe……
Only apply here…
Don’t apply here…
Source: http://emergysystems.org
20. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
21. Systems Design - a Review
Dana Meadows 1) they have these components
in class 2.1
Elements
InterConnexions
Purpose
heart
2) & complex systems in turn
are made up of sub-systems veins
S s e s&
ytm
S b ytm
u S se s
arteries
capillaries
your circulatory etc.
system
22. Systems Design - a Review
Hierarchy ecosystem
Holarchy
2) complex systems Holons
in turn
are made up of sub-
systems
organism
3) & sub-systems organize
themselves into nested hierarchies
(holarchies)
organ
23. Systems Design - a Review
1) have these components 2) complex systems made up of
Elements sub-systems
interConnections
Purpose 3) sub-systems organized in
nested hierarchies (holarchies)
4) & we have a great
symbols language to make
maps (models) of complex
life systems
24. AS s e inHa m n
ytm ro y
Elements &
Eg. a healthy body: the InterConnexions Work
whole self-regulates to
keep you alive Toward a Common Purpose
heart
veins
your
digestive
system
arteries
capillaries
your respiratory your circulatory etc.
system system
25. AS s e inDis r o y
ytm -
Ha m n
Purpose
Eg. a university: as intended & discover knowledge & pass it to
how can mis-align (bad design) future generations
Professors
ignore students in
order to write
their papers
to get tenure
balance the sack
budget profesors
to get good
grades
Students
cheat in exams
Sub-systems can
enter into conflict
with the intended Administrators
purpose
26. AS s e inDis r o y
ytm -
Ha m n
a Rational System Vision (for our Purpose
'system') > a sustainable one > a For all creatures to thrive
PermaCulture
Energy thriving
creativity &
use the least commerce to
amount possible & supply all
slowly (REDUCE healthy human
CONSUMPTION) needs
(PEOPLE
CARE)
toward maximum
fertility & diversity
(EARTH CARE)
Environment
Economy
27. AS s e inDis r o y
ytm -
Ha m n
The current 'system' & how it might Purpose
be currently mis-aligned or 'off For all creatures to thrive or for
purpose' (discuss in Aulas!) humans to dominate all species?
make it as cheap,
abundant & Energy thriving
creativity &
universally use the least commerce to
available as amount possible & supply all
possible, with fast slowly (REDUCE maximum healthy human
turn-over CONSUMPTION) consumption needs
at highest (PEOPLE
possible profit CARE)
toward maximum
fertility & diversity
(EARTH CARE)
Environment
try to adjust &
survive under Sub-systems in
brutal attack serious conflict
with Permaculture Economy
Ethics
28. FORS u y o p :
td- Gr u s
HOW DO EVEN JUST THE HUMAN-MADE & how they could this
DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY CLASH? clash 'resolve' in a
more oppressive
world government?
ENERGY DRIVER ECONOMY DRIVER
make it as cheap, maximum "An 'ecological' orientation
abundant & consumption at alone,
universally available highest possible outside of a
as possible, with fast critical social framework,
profit
turn-over is dangerously unstable.
The record of fascist ecology
Rather than: shows that
SUSTAINABLE A SUSTAINABLE under the right conditions
ECONOMY such an orientation
ENERGY USE
can quickly lead to
thriving creativity & barbarism."
use the least
commerce to
amount possible & >> see Fascist Ecology article
supply all healthy
slowly (REDUCE human needs
in e-Book
CONSUMPTION) (PEOPLE CARE)
29. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
30.
31. If we put creativity in the X axis ...
Creative Descent
(Permaculture)
Earth stewardship
Creativity
Techno-fantasy
32. working to preserve the
The two most typical status quo
“strategies” to face the
combined
global crisis correspond
with these future with the belief the new
scenarios technologies will solve
our problems
FEAR can be
a Motivator
or a Paralyzing
influence
When
How
For Which People?
longing for an
earlier social and
moral order
+
anger at having lost
control over our
future
33. But both strategies are not so different, both are based in
a belief that we can do little to change things
and both are anchored in the past:
advocates of the status quo basically extrapolate what
they regard as positive trends from the past;
opponents fight these trends.
“Either we are saved by
science & technology
or
we will have to go back to
the caves”
34. The 4th scenario has to be based on
different assumptions, Eg.:
The future will be Very Different
from the past
& Lower consumption = Higher Standard of Life
So we will need
to
“learn from the
future as it
emerges”
35. For study groups: All of these
are now
converging
extinction of
biodiversity
&
the gray wave in a small
window of time
PEAK 2000 CLIMATE
OIL 2020 CHANGE
>> or a small
monetary
instability window of
&
info revolution opportunity?
What OTHER meanings can we Why have we created
DESIGN for these times? & such a big crisis,
where will they lead us? collectively?
36. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
37. T c n l g ist e
eh oo y h
A p ic t no
p l a io f
BUT ...
s ie c
c ne
• WHICH science do we need to apply to solve THESE problems?
• WHICH QUADRANT/S REALLY NEED THE MOST WORK HERE?
+ PDC
+ +
38. T c n l g ist e
eh oo y h
A p ic t no
p l a io f
Given that ... s ie c
c ne
• we have known of the problems since the late 1960s
• the solutions are relatively simple & most are also quick to
implement
• There have been innumerable international conferences about
these
• huge amounts of resources (especially international travel) are
going into trying to resolve them
• & our lives + the world as we know it depend on reaching an
agreement
39. But we haven't reached
an Agreement
in some 50+ years
Why?
41. Look anything like the
whole
or some other part
Although each part might not
42. When did you last have
an argument
Which started as apparently
insoluble
& you successfully
arrived at a WIN-WIN
agreement?
or at least a
MUTUAL
understanding?
43. M1.6 Hypothesis
THINK
Observe
Perception Is Not Reality Reflexiona
r
USE this process
non-selectively!
(not just when
'convenient')
ACT Design
Experiment Prediction
dogma
what is/ "conflict"? Conflict M3.3
gossipist
therapist
Resolution
my your
story story
cycle
44. The general Larger
Pattern seems to be
an Inability to Resolve
Conflict
Get
we Avoid Impatient
Fear
Demonize arguing
& Don't have
Belittle
adequate
Not Listen Technologies !!
& Knowledge
45. So maybe..
learning to LET things
"come to a Head"
is an important Micro-way
to Ultimately solve
the general Macro-Problem
Discuss & aim to
in disagree
Aulas!! :)
Learning to Accept & Work with
+
Harvest the Rich Yields of
Our "Dark Side"
46. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
Notas del editor
Module 4. Despite the fact that many 'Technological Improvements' haven't managed to improve the quality of life for the majority of people, but have brought more problems & pollution, we still keep expecting the arrival of a more modern technology, perhaps more ecological, that will restore & reverse the damage made. In fact, it is possible, but not without having more citizens with a better understanding & a wider vision of what technology is, & who also understand some basic science necessary in order to be able to think for ourselves on these subjects.
“ The problem is never how to get new, innovative thoughts into your mind, but how to get old ones out. Every mind is a building filled with archaic furniture. Clean out a corner of your mind and creativity will instantly fill it.” Dee Hock
cuantas especies al día?? instabilidad monetaria ...
two realities that seem to come from different sources, two things that seem different when really they form part of the same crisis ....
propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo> vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
A holarchy , in the terminology of Arthur Koestler , is a hierarchy of ho lons – wh ere a holon i s both a part and a whole. The term was coined in Koestler's 1967 book The Ghost in the Machine . The term, spelled holoarchy , is also used extensively by American philosopher and writer Ken Wilber . [1] Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo> vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo> vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo> vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo> vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
cuantas especies al día?? instabilidad monetaria ...
We think we are so much more rational than 'primitive people' .. (or someone 'else') but in fact in some of the situations where it would be very important to use the scientific method (in our everyday relationships), we actually prefer to stick to our dogmas (lots of the pain in conflict is saying "don't touch my dogma"! (dogma= un-questioned beliefs ... & they can be anything, from "all x people are evil" to "am fundamentally un-lovable", etc.) ... so we don't evolve