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2012-2020 outlook for solar – a new dawn
by Noelle Lim, Asia Journalism Fellowship 2012, Nanyang Technological University
Why solar?
State of play
Outlook 2012-2020 – seven points
Fossil fuel, an environment hazard




BP oil spill, Gulf of Mexico in 2010, damage cost $8 billion, image: The Daily Green
Geopolitical tension, unstable
         regimes affect oil supply




Egypt protests in 2011, still a long road to democracy, image: Daily Mail Reporter, EPA
Sanctions on Iran for nuclear




Oil imports from Iran curbed, all major economies will be affected, image: IBN
Oil prices are volatile




Oil price peaks no. 4) Iran-Iraq war 11) Global financial crisis 12) Opec cuts production
The alternative, nuclear is unpopular




 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, image: Sydney Morning Herald
Solar is free, clean and renewable




Image: allaboutsolarenergy.net
Solar democratises energy
     production, empowers villagers




Solar engineers at work in India, image: Action Mag
Why solar?
State of play
Outlook 2012-2020 – seven points
Tackling Eurozone debt a bigger
  priority than funding clean energy




Protests in Greece over pension and salary cuts, image: Wall Street Journal
Politicians oppose more funding for
         clean energy in US
Major solar firms went bankrupt




Solyndra was a beneficiary of US government funding, image: Associated Press
Despite lower costs, Chinese solar
            firms also suffered




Suntech, world's largest solar firm's shares fell over the past five years, chart: Yahoo Finance
In 2012, US raises import duties on
      solar panels from China




US firms unable to compete with Chinese firms, lobbies for restrictions
Solar is attracting investors
      typically ahead of the curve




Warren Buffet bought MidAmerican, owner of a $2 billion solar farm in California
Solar PV prices are dropping,
 cheaper to use solar energy
Payback can be two years for solar,
     depending on location




   Source: New Renewable Energy Laboratory
Grid parity achieved soon
   as prices of PV falls
Why solar?
State of play
Outlook 2012-2020 – seven points
1. Growth in solar will outpace wind,
     a major renewable, to 2020




Annual value of renewable energy capacity installed, 2005-30 ($billion)
Chart: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2. China will lead the growth in
      demand for renewables to 2020




Annual value of renewable energy capacity installed, 2005-30 ($billion), chart: Bloomberg NEF
RoW = rest of the world, MENA = Middle East North Africa
3. Off-grid market, another driver




Solar installation by Grameen Shakti in remote village of Bangladesh, image: Action Mag
3. Remote areas are energy hungry




  Solar home system installations by Grameen Shakti, image: Grameen Shakti
4. Solar REITs and solar panels as
     advertisement billboards




More investment and financing products will unleash market development and innovation
Image: Poco Solar Energy
5. More applications commercialised
    due to thin film development




Train (Desisolar France); road (Solar Roadways US); car (Panasonic); window (KVArch/MIT)
6. Retail and energy products
             bundled together




Consumer gadgets could produce energy or control energy supply, image: Apple iPad
7. A norm to buy green electricity
          and install solar panels




Intel solar processor; charging station for electric cars; Wal-Mart; United Church in Canada
Go clean, the next generation will
        thank you for it




Jonathan Sophat Lilienfein and his mother, Botumroath Keo Lebun from Cambodia
By Noelle Lim
noelle@ajf.sg

Asia Journalism Fellow 2012
Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information

Nanyang Technological University

Singapore

Adviser: Nilesh Jadhav, Energy Research Institute @ NTU

Sponsor: Temasek Foundation

March 2012

Image on front cover in Nadi, Fiji

Copyright by Noelle Lim

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Solar outlook 2012-2020

  • 1. 2012-2020 outlook for solar – a new dawn by Noelle Lim, Asia Journalism Fellowship 2012, Nanyang Technological University
  • 2. Why solar? State of play Outlook 2012-2020 – seven points
  • 3. Fossil fuel, an environment hazard BP oil spill, Gulf of Mexico in 2010, damage cost $8 billion, image: The Daily Green
  • 4. Geopolitical tension, unstable regimes affect oil supply Egypt protests in 2011, still a long road to democracy, image: Daily Mail Reporter, EPA
  • 5. Sanctions on Iran for nuclear Oil imports from Iran curbed, all major economies will be affected, image: IBN
  • 6. Oil prices are volatile Oil price peaks no. 4) Iran-Iraq war 11) Global financial crisis 12) Opec cuts production
  • 7. The alternative, nuclear is unpopular Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, image: Sydney Morning Herald
  • 8. Solar is free, clean and renewable Image: allaboutsolarenergy.net
  • 9. Solar democratises energy production, empowers villagers Solar engineers at work in India, image: Action Mag
  • 10. Why solar? State of play Outlook 2012-2020 – seven points
  • 11. Tackling Eurozone debt a bigger priority than funding clean energy Protests in Greece over pension and salary cuts, image: Wall Street Journal
  • 12. Politicians oppose more funding for clean energy in US
  • 13. Major solar firms went bankrupt Solyndra was a beneficiary of US government funding, image: Associated Press
  • 14. Despite lower costs, Chinese solar firms also suffered Suntech, world's largest solar firm's shares fell over the past five years, chart: Yahoo Finance
  • 15. In 2012, US raises import duties on solar panels from China US firms unable to compete with Chinese firms, lobbies for restrictions
  • 16. Solar is attracting investors typically ahead of the curve Warren Buffet bought MidAmerican, owner of a $2 billion solar farm in California
  • 17. Solar PV prices are dropping, cheaper to use solar energy
  • 18. Payback can be two years for solar, depending on location Source: New Renewable Energy Laboratory
  • 19. Grid parity achieved soon as prices of PV falls
  • 20. Why solar? State of play Outlook 2012-2020 – seven points
  • 21. 1. Growth in solar will outpace wind, a major renewable, to 2020 Annual value of renewable energy capacity installed, 2005-30 ($billion) Chart: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  • 22. 2. China will lead the growth in demand for renewables to 2020 Annual value of renewable energy capacity installed, 2005-30 ($billion), chart: Bloomberg NEF RoW = rest of the world, MENA = Middle East North Africa
  • 23. 3. Off-grid market, another driver Solar installation by Grameen Shakti in remote village of Bangladesh, image: Action Mag
  • 24. 3. Remote areas are energy hungry Solar home system installations by Grameen Shakti, image: Grameen Shakti
  • 25. 4. Solar REITs and solar panels as advertisement billboards More investment and financing products will unleash market development and innovation Image: Poco Solar Energy
  • 26. 5. More applications commercialised due to thin film development Train (Desisolar France); road (Solar Roadways US); car (Panasonic); window (KVArch/MIT)
  • 27. 6. Retail and energy products bundled together Consumer gadgets could produce energy or control energy supply, image: Apple iPad
  • 28. 7. A norm to buy green electricity and install solar panels Intel solar processor; charging station for electric cars; Wal-Mart; United Church in Canada
  • 29. Go clean, the next generation will thank you for it Jonathan Sophat Lilienfein and his mother, Botumroath Keo Lebun from Cambodia
  • 30. By Noelle Lim noelle@ajf.sg Asia Journalism Fellow 2012 Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information Nanyang Technological University Singapore Adviser: Nilesh Jadhav, Energy Research Institute @ NTU Sponsor: Temasek Foundation March 2012 Image on front cover in Nadi, Fiji Copyright by Noelle Lim