Discussion about feed in tariff (FIT), other subsidies to wind and solar power, cases in Germany, UK, then Philippines.

1. Bienvenido “Nonoy” Oplas Jr.
Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc.
Renewables Cronyism,
Germany and UK Cases
Occasional lectures
in the Philippines
Presentation at Development Economics class +
Comparative Economics of SEA class
Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU), Quezon City
22 January 2015

2. Outline
I. Global energy mix
II. Generation cost, Electricity prices,
developed countries
III. Germany Case
IV. UK Case
V. No climate basis for renewables
cronyism
VI. Conclusions

3. I. Global Energy Mix, 2010
Source: Total world energy consumption by source 2010, from REN21
Renewables 2012 Global Status Report.
Reposted in WUWT, A LOL ! press release on renewable energy from wishful
thinkers at the University of Delaware
* Note that wind + solar was only 0.6 % of total despite decades of govts. support

4. • Share of coal + natural gas, 50.5% in 1973, 63.2% in 2011
Source: IEA

5. Source: IEA

6. source: WUWT, Maryland’s “Wind Powered Welfare”, March 12, 2013
II.
Generation
Cost,
Electricity
Prices
Wind and
solar are
agn, the
most costly
power
sources, for
US plants
entering
2018.:

7. source: IEA, Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2014sum.pdf
Even among fellow renewables, solar and offshore wind are
expensive.

8. So countries that have more wind and solar farms also have the most expensive
electricity rates.

9. Famous climatologist Roy Spencer showed
this chart on the right – increase in life
expectancy, people living healthier, longer,
coincided with CO2 emission and moderniztion
of human society.
Source: Dr. Spencer, Why Don’t More People
Care About Global Warming?. October 1,
2014.

10. WSJ, 16 October 2013
III. Germany Case

12. source: NTZ, Germany’s Renewable Energy Efficiency Falls To Just Over
20% – Threatening To Ruin Country’s Competitiveness, February 24, 2013
In Germany, 1990 to 2011,
capacity utilization for (a)
wind about 15%, (b) solar
about 10%. The other
renewables have higher
utilization rate.

13. EurActiv, 22 October 2014
New York Times, 24 October 2014
The Telegraph, 7 November 2014

14. Europe being a very modern continent, and Germany and UK being
highly industrialized countries, and yet there are stories and reports of
“EU risks blackout”, a “dark continent”, and “impossible green dream”.
In developed Asia like Hong Kong (electricity, 71% from coal, 29% from
natural gas, zero from renewables; Singapore 78% from natural gas and
18% from oil, very small from renewables (as of 2011, from ADB’’s Key
Indicators 2014) ); S. Korea and Japan, the words “blackout” or
brownout” or “dark continent” are never heard. They have huge, stable
and reliable energy supply, at cheap prices, their energy policies have
not been hijacked by green socialism yet.
Below,
IV. UK Case

15. Sunday Express, 15 October 2014
Mail Online, 15 October 2014
The Telegraph, 5 October 2014
Intl. Business Times, 6 November 2014
The Times, UK, 21 November 2014

16. (Above, Batanes; below, Bangui, Ilocos Norte)

17. Source: Energy Econ 25: Coal Use and GDP Expansion, Is There a Correlation?,
01 September 2014
Previous photos -- reason why if there are wind farms, there are no houses,
no fishing or farming village, no beach resorts, almost no other economic
activity. Those wind towers can fall down, wind turbines and blades can get
burned and fall down. The economic trade off of having more wind farms is
huge. Plus huge amount of mining and production of iron and steel, cement
and other mineral products.
Below, those who relied more on coal power have faster econ. growth.

18. V. No Climate Basis for Renewables Cronyism

19. Climate change (CC) is true. It happened in the past, happening now,
and will happen in the future. Global warming (GW) is true, it
happened in the past (last century, Medieval warm period, Roman
warm period,…), and will happen again in the future. Global cooling is
also true, happened in the past, happening now.
Because CC is natural (nature-made, not made), it is cyclical (warming-
cooling-warming-cooling), and has precedents (not “unprecedented”).
Skeptics (like me) do not deny CC or GW because these are true.
What we deny is that CC and GW is “man-made” or anthropogenic. CC
is caused by nature (the Sun, galactic cosmic rays, water vapor,
volcanoes, ocean oscillation, carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle,…).
Below, warming-cooling cycle coinciding with CO2 concentration. One
study says temperature leads CO2, other studies say it’s the reverse.
Common denominator, there are precedents of warm period, lasting for
decades & centuries.

20. Source: WUWT, Euan Mearns,, Vostok and the 8000 year time lag Dec. 27, 2014

21. VI. Concluding Notes
1. Pilipinas gaya-gaya (imitating). Because UK, Germany and other
European countries have renewables favoritism and cronyism laws, we
also have one. The Renewable Energy Act of 2008 (RA 9513).
2. The PH’s RE law has more cronyism provisions than RE laws of our
Asian neighbors. This slide + 2 slides below presented at the ADB few
years ago by former DOE Sec. Vince Perez, who later migrated to become
WWF-PH Chairman, while owning several wind power companies.

22. NREB
Proposed
ERC
Approved
Solar 17.95 9.68
Wind 10.37 8.53
Biomass 7.00 6.63
Hydro, run of river 6.15 5.90
Philippines Feed in Tariff (FIT),
approved July 2012

23. 3. Renewables are fine, provided there should be NO subsidies. People
can put up solar panels in the roof of their houses and buildings, fine.
People can put up wind towers in their farms and private property, fine.
They are using their own money, taking their own risks and benefits.
4. It is different when people put up wind farms or solar farms in huge
areas including public forest lands, because they want to get paid huge
money (via RPS and FIT) at the expense of consumers. FIT is the
guaranteed minimum for renewables. While coal, nat gas, big hydro
geothermal can be priced down to P1/kWh or even less during non-
peak hours, renewables are guaranteed to be paid FIT rates.
5. Cases of Germany and UK show that government intervention and
cronyism in energy policy is wrong and counter-productive.
Governments should get out of electricity pricing, stop forcing grid
operators and electricity distributors to buy first from renewables even if
their rates are expensive.
6. There is zero climate basis for renewables cronyism. There is zero
justification for governments to intervene heavily in energy production
mix and electricity pricing.