Assessing the implications of long term climate trends and interconnected risks.

1. Climate Change Increases the Tension
Between Droughts and Floods
James C. Dalton, PE, SES
Chief, Engineering & Construction
5th OECD High Level Risk Forum Panel on
Assessing the implications of long term climate
trends and interconnected risks
Washington, DC | 8 December2015

2. Outline
 Strong evidence supports increased drought
and heavy precipitation in a changing climate
 Droughts and floods are intimately related
 Both droughts and floods impact global and
national security
 Climate preparedness and resilience
measures are needed to reduce adverse
impacts to the economy, society and the
environment
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3. 3
SEVERE
DROUGHTS
EXTREME
PRECIPITATION
EVENTS
COASTAL
FLOODING
HEAT
WAVES
Climate Change Is Inextricably Tied To Water
 Known climate impacts in increasing order
of strong evidence as identified by the
IPCC

4. 4
SEVERE
DROUGHTS
EXTREME
PRECIPITATION
COASTAL
FLOODING
HEAT
WAVES
WILDFIRE
POST-FIRE
FLOOD/DEBRIS
Interconnections and Interactions

5. US Climate Change
 National Climate Assessment
(2014):
– Droughts in the Southwest and
heat waves everywhere are
projected to become more
intense
– Increases in the frequency and
intensity of extreme
precipitation events are
projected for all U.S. regions

6. US Drought
6
Folsom Dam, CA, July 2011
Folsom Dam, CA, January 2014
 Estimated annual cost of large
drought disasters in the US
over 1980-2013 is $9.4B USD
 Estimated 2012 drought costs
to agriculture > $30B USD
 Numerous other sectors (e.g.,
mining, utilities, industrial,
tourist) impacted by impaired
operations or direct losses
 Infrastructure impacts include
subsidence and foundation
settlement

7. Precipitation May-June 2015 Ended Multiyear Drought
Across the Texas Region
• Record rainfall in May/June:
-14.4 inches in OK,
- 8.8 inches in TX.
• Biggest flood in 70 years
• 51 flood control lakes in flood pool
• 20 flood control lakes > flood pool
• More than $13 billion in damages
prevented by these projects
Utilizing > 50% Flood Control Storage: 37 projects
Utilizing > 100% Flood Control Storage: 11 projects
Cumulative rainfall 20-27 May

8. US National Security Perspective
 “Among the future trends that will impact
our national security is climate change…In
our defense strategy, we refer to climate
change as a “threat multiplier” because
it has the potential to exacerbate many
of the challenges we are dealing with
today—from infectious disease to terrorism.
We are already beginning to see some of
these impacts.” Chuck Hagel, Defense
Secretary, Oct 2014
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9. Governance: Administration Policies and Programs
 Climate Action Plan, June 2013
 Executive Order 13653, Preparing the United
States for the Impacts of Climate Change,
November 2013
 Executive Order 13677, Climate-Resilient
International Development, September 2014
 Priority Agenda: Enhancing the Climate
Resilience of America’s Natural Resources,
October 2014
 State, Local, and Tribal Leaders Task Force
Report to the President, November 2014
 Executive Order 13689—Enhancing
Coordination of National Efforts in the Arctic,
January 2015
 Executive Order 13690, Federal Flood Risk
Management Standard, January 2015

10. USACE 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Plan
 Focus on specific areas
– Infrastructure Resilience
– Vulnerability Assessments
– Risk-Informed Decision-Making for Climate
Change
– Nonstationarity
– Portfolio of Approaches
– Metrics and Endpoints
 Engage in meaningful external
collaboration
 Improve USACE knowledge for water
resources management and
infrastructure resilience
 Develop policy and guidance for
Infrastructure resilience
1010
http://www.corpsclimate.us/adaptationpolicy.cfm

11. Issues for Consideration
 Climate is changing and increasing weather
extremes, including droughts and floods
– USACE planning and design account for future climate
impacted water levels out 100 years
– USACE policy and guidance require climate preparedness
and resilience to reduce future risks
– USACE accounts for additional risk due to the evolving
science of climate hydrology by embracing uncertainty
rather than trying to reduce it
– Key policy gaps include the need for improved economic
analyses that address uncertain future conditions and lack
of knowledge about best practices for contentious climate
risk management implementation measures such as
relocation
– International exchanges could help to develop new
economic analysis techniques and best practices
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