Presentation by Dr. Georgios Giannopoulos, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, at the 6th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management in Geneva on 12-13 June 2017. The event was organised by the OECD and the Swiss Federal Chancellery, bringing together government crisis managers and practitioners from international organisations, industry and leading think-tanks to share strategic insights and cutting-edge policy responses. For further information please see http://www.oecd.org/governance/6th-workshop-strategic-crisis-management.htm

1. The European Commission’s
science and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
Modelling complexity and
interdependencies for
improving CI resilience
Georgios Giannopoulos
Directorate E: Space, Security and Migration
Unit E2: Technology Innovation in Security

2. 2
DG JRC Role: facts & figures
• 6 locations in 5 Member States
• 1 500 core research staff, out of
around 3 000 total staff
• Research fellows and visiting
scientists
• 42 lаrge scale research facilities,
more than 110 online databases
• More than 100 economic, bio-
physical and nuclear models

3. 3
Infrastructures are vital for economic growth!
...but have always been threatened by
natural or man-made hazards

4. 4
Legislation
Governance
Cultural gap
Different levels of
maturity
Connecting with existing
infrastructures
Intrinsic
complexity
Awareness Raising
Training
Resilience by design for interconnected CIs

5. 5
Modelling complexity & interdependencies: A
prerequisite to resilience
Modeling, simulation and
analysis tools
Dependencies across countries
Cascading effects across sectors
Complexity
Computational
Cost

6. 6
Modelling interdependencies for optimised
recovery at asset level
Recovered asset
Inoperable asset

7. 7
Interdependency mapping at country/systems
level
• “How much” does my infrastructure (MyI) depends on
others and vice versa, both as a sector and in time?
20%
MyI
on/off
60%

8. 8
The failure and recovery dynamics at systems
level
• Q.1 To what extent, for a given
scenario, is my infrastructure able
to keep functioning? This depends
on the sectors MyI relies upon and
its own resilience measures
• Q.2 How quickly will the recovery
process start and how long will it
take?
• Q.3 Will it start independently of
other infrastructures?

9. 9
Economic impact modelling of CI disruption at
country level
No Critical Infrastructure Economic losses
without inventory
(million €)
Economic losses
with inventory
(million €)
1 Air transport 188.9 188.8
2 Electricity, gas, steam and hot water
supply
614.4 481.3
3 Post & Telecommunications 405.4 395.2
4 Water transport 0.7 0.5
5 Land transport; transport via pipelines 285.1 283.2
6 Financial intermediation, except
insurance and pension funding
187.0 131.1
7 Health and social work 27.0 19.0
8 Household sector/ workforce 544.2 379.7
Total (8 CI’s) 2,252.6 1,878.7
Total (all 36 sectors) 3,357.5 2,319.3
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Time after disruption (in days)
Inoperability
Critical Infrastructure Initial production
inoperability
Recovery time
Air transport 75% 4 weeks/ 28 days
Rail transport 50% 2 months/ 61 days
Road transport 10% 2 months/61 days
Electricity 75% 2 weeks/ 14 days
Telecommunications 75% 2 weeks/ 14 days

10. 10
Cost
Cost
Disruptive
Event
Recovery
Action
Stable
Recovered
State
Disrupted
State
Stable
Original
State
Disrupted
State
Recovery
Action
Stable
Recovered
State
It is all about resisting, adapting, recovering!
…hence reducing the cost of disruptive events.
Functionality
Time

11. 11
Lessons learned
Modelling Interdependencies can help:
• Increase the awareness about the serviceability of
interdependent sectors under critical circumstances
• Identify the criticality of different types of scenarios when
the overall economy is considered
• Foster information sharing relevant to crisis management
among operators
• Sharing of Data and Information - a positive side effect
of modelling

12. 12
The 2nd International workshop on Modelling of
Physical, Economic and Social Systems for Resilience
Assessment
Brussels 14-16 of December 2017
Co-organised by JRC, NIST and Colorado State University
Contact: JRC-Resilience-2017@ec.europa.eu

13. 13
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