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OECD Skills Outlook
Global Launch
Skills and Global Value Chains
@UniofBathIPR, @OECDEduSkills
#OECDSkills
4 May 2017
Andreas Schleicher
Andrew Wyckoff
People are at the centre
of Global Value Chains
2
What Global Value Chains (GVCs) mean
Value added
The Smiling Curve
3
R&D
Design
Logistic
purchase
Production
Assembling
Logistic
s
Market
ing
Service
s
Pre-production
Upstream activities
Post-production
Downstream activities
Production
Value
chain
activities
4
A comprehensive approach
Exports of manufactured goods include a large share of
value added from abroad
Foreign value added embodied in exports, manufactured goods and services, 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Domestic, in manufactured exports Foreign, in manufactured exports
Foreign, in business services exports
Source: OECD Trade in Value Added database (TiVA).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
%
EU28 East and Southeast Asia (excl. China) NAFTA
China Rest of the world
Many jobs depend on demand in foreign
countries
Source: OECD (2015b), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation
for growth and society.
Jobs in the business sector sustained by foreign final demand, by region of demand
As a percentage of total business sector employment, 2011
5
+100
+1.1%
+0.4%
Source: OECD calculations based on Marcolin et al. (2016) .
Technology and employment in GVCs
7
Investing in KBC and skills….
Countries differ in the number and type
of workers performing tasks shaping the
long-term functioning of firms,
i.e. in their Organisational Capital.
Health, Science
& Engineering
professionals …
12
14
12
12
12
10
9
14
19
14
15
17
17
20
15
24
20
22
21
26
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
CZE
SVK
ITA
ESP
SWE
KOR
DNK
BEL
EST
DEU
AUT
POL
IRL
FRA
JPN
NOR
USA
CAN
NLD
GBR
%
Investment: Managers Investment: Non-managers
Employed persons in
OC occupations as a
percentage of total
employed persons
Employment and investment in Organisational Capital, 2011-12 (As % of total VA)
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015, DOI : 10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en.
Managers
8
…..is key to thrive in GVCs
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015,
12
14
12
12
12
10
9
14
19
14
15
17
17
20
15
24
20
22
21
26
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
CZE
SVK
ITA
ESP
SWE
KOR
DNK
BEL
EST
DEU
AUT
POL
IRL
FRA
JPN
NOR
USA
CAN
NLD
GBR
%
Investment: Managers Investment: Non-managers
Employment and investment in Organisational Capital, 2011-12 (As % of total VA)
Source: Marcolin et al. (forthcoming)
.
OC over VA, by industry intensity in ICT, 2011
9
…..is key to thrive in GVCs
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015,
ICT investment over VA,
by degree of input offshoring
Services industries
12
14
12
12
12
10
9
14
19
14
15
17
17
20
15
24
20
22
21
26
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
CZE
SVK
ITA
ESP
SWE
KOR
DNK
BEL
EST
DEU
AUT
POL
IRL
FRA
JPN
NOR
USA
CAN
NLD
GBR
%
Investment: Managers Investment: Non-managers
Employment and investment in Organisational Capital, 2011-12 (As % of total VA)
Source: Marcolin et al. (forthcoming)
.
OC over VA, by industry intensity in ICT, 2011
Globalisation is being questioned
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN
CZE
DNK
EST
FIN
FRA
DEU
GRC
HUN
ISL
ISR
ITA
JPN
KOR
LUX
MEX
NLD
NZL
NOR
POL
PRT
SVK
SVN
ESP
SWE
TUR
GBR
USA
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Change in the Gini
coefficient
Change in backward participation in GVCs
IRL
Inequalities have increased or decreased in countries that have increased
their participation in GVCs
Source: OECD Trade in Value Added Database (TiVA); OECD Income Distribution Database.
2000-12
10
Skills Matter for
globalisation
11
• Realise productivity gains
– offered by new technologies and participation in GVCs
• Protect workers against negative impact
– Job losses, lower job quality
• Specialise in advanced industries and services
– Innovation, higher productivity, job creation
12
Why skills?
The Race between Technology and Education
Inspired by “The race between
technology and education”
Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)
Industrial revolution
Digital revolution
Social pain
Universal
public schooling
Technology
Education
Prosperity
Social pain
Prosperity
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Backward participation
(exports)
Backward participation (final
demand)
Forward participation (final
demand)
Least fragmentable industries Most fragmentable industries
Percentage points
Average annual increase in productivity growth, 1995-2009
Larger increase in:
Transport eq.,
Electrical and
optical eq.,
Food products,
Chemicals
Smaller increase in:
Computer activities,
R&D and other
business activities,
health and social
work
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD TiVA database and World Input-Output
Database (WIOD).
Participation in GVCs can lead to productivity
gains, especially if associated with skills
14
Skills channel
15
Link between exports in GVCs and skills indicators
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD TiVA database and Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC)
Countries can grow in global markets if their
workers have a range of skills
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
Regression coefficient
Assessed cognitive skills
Task-Based skills
Personality
trait
• Sources of inequality
– Skill-biased technological change and institutions:
important sources
– Competition from low-cost countries: another source
• What people do and the type of skills they
develop makes a difference
– More educated workers enjoy higher job quality
– Gap in job strain between low and highly educated
workers is larger in countries more active in GVCs
• Investing in skills particularly important in countries engaged
in lower end of GVCs
16
Impact of GVCs on inequalities within countries
17
Gap in job quality between high-skilled and low-skilled workers
and participation in global value chains
More educated workers enjoy better job quality
AUT
BEL
CZE
DNK
EST
FIN
FRA
DEU
GRC
HUN
IRL
ITA
LUX
NLD
NOR
POL
PRT
SVK
SVNESP
SWE
TUR
GBR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Gap in the quality of the
working environment
between high-skilled and
low-skilled workers
Backward participation in GVCs, %
In countries more integrated in global markets,
the gap in job quality between educated and
less educated workers is bigger
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Job Quality Database and OECD Trade in Value Added
database (TiVA).
Earnings quality
Level and distribution of earnings
Labour-market security
Risk of unemployment and available income support
Quality of the working environment
Nature and content of work performed, work-time
arrangements and workplace relationships)
18
Production
Marketing
Services
Design
R&D
Value
added
along
GVCs
From
economic
to social
outcomes
By investing in skills, countries can help make
GVCs work for all
Skills
Employment
Social outcomes
Productivity
19
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
Limited share of low-
skilled workers
To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity
growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job
quality
Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social
outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes
Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top
end of the skill distribution is important
Increasing
participation in GVCs
How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by
importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries
inputs
Specialised in
advanced industries
Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation,
innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage)
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced industries
How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown
Increasing
productivity
Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many
channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion
Increasing
employment
Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and
job creation
Improving social
outcomes
Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour-market
security and the quality of the working environment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%
Workers
In both literacy and numeracy In literacy only In numeracy only
The proportion of low performers in literacy and/or numeracy
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015).
20
More than 200m adults in OECD countries have low
literacy or numeracy skills and 60% lack both
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40
Turkey
Greece
Chile
Lithuania
Israel
United States
Poland
Russian Federation
Ireland
Slovak Republic
England (UK)
Northern Ireland (UK)
Japan
OECD average
Slovenia
Estonia
Denmark
Austria
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
Germany
Czech Republic
Norway
Flanders (Belgium)
Netherlands
Sweden
Finland
Korea
Singapore
Level 2 Level 3 Level 2 Level 3
Young adults (16-24 year-olds) Older adults (55-65 year-olds)
%
Medium to advanced digital problem-solving skills
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Literacy skills Numeracy skills Problem solving skills
in technology-rich
environments
Physical skills
Correlation between the employment share in high routine jobs and
average workers’ skills
Workers in high
routine jobs tend
to have low
cognitive skills Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012); and Marcolin, L., S.
Miroudot and M. Squicciarini (2016), ‘Routine jobs, employment and technological innovation in
global value chains’, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, No. 2016/01.
Workers in
high routine
jobs tend to
have high
physical skills
23
Those with higher cognitive skills are less
likely to be in routine jobs
24
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
Limited share of low-
skilled workers
To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity
growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job
quality
Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social
outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes
Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top
end of the skill distribution is important
Increasing
participation in GVCs
How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by
importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries
inputs
Specialised in
advanced industries
Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation,
innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage)
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced industries
How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown
Increasing
productivity
Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many
channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion
Increasing
employment
Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and
job creation
Improving social
outcomes
Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour-market
security and the quality of the working environment
Countries can shape their
specialisation within global
value chains through the
skills of their populations
25
26
Change in specialisation, 2000-11: Increase Decrease
Source: OECD calculations based on the Trade in Value Added Database.
Most OECD countries have increased their specialisation in
technologically advanced industries
Decrease
in low tech.
industries
Increase in
high tech.
industries
AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChile
Czech
Republic
Denm
ark
EstoniaFinlandGerm
any
GreeceIrelandIsraelJapanKoreaNetherlands
New
Zealand
Norw
ayPolandSlovakRepublic
SloveniaSw
edenTurkeyUnited
Kingdom
United
States
Low-tech
manufacturing
Food products
Textiles
Wood
Pulp and paper
Manufacturing n.e.c
Coke, petroleum
Rubber products
Other mineral products
Basic metals
Fabricated metal products
Wholesale and retail trade
Hotels and restaurants
Transport and storage
Post and telecom.
Machinery and eq.
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Chemicals
Computer, optical
Other transport eq.
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of eq.
Computer
R&D
Low-tech
manufacturing
Medium/low-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (less
complex)
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Specialising in most technologically advanced industries
(incl. services) requires a good alignment of countries’ skills with
industries’ skills requirements
For instance, the finance and insurance industry requires :
Workers with good numeracy
skills but also managing and
communicating skills to perform
the various activities
Pools of workers with qualifications that
reflect what they can do:
Many technologically advanced industries
involve long sequences of tasks and poor
performance at any stage greatly reduces
the value of output
27
30
Countries can increase specialisation within GVCs
through their skills characteristics
The effect of countries’ skills characteristics on specialisation within GVCs
Change in exports (in value added terms)
Source: OECD calculations based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) and Trade in Value Added
Database.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Numeracy and literacy Literacy and problem-
solving in technology-rich
environment
Numeracy and problem-
solving in technology-rich
environment
%
Skills mix
Pools of workers
with
qualifications
reflecting what
they can doDifferences in countries to equip workers with right skill mix
can lead to differences in relative exports
• 8% between two countries with average differences in skill mix
• Up to 60% between two countries with large difference in skill mix
Specialisation opportunities
in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting
from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
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changeinRCA
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changeinRCA
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changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
The revealed comparative advantage captures
countries’ specialisation in industries within global
value chains. It shows the comparative
advantage/disadvantage a country has in an industry
relative to other countries and all other industries
Revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA>1)
No revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA<1)
Specialisation opportunities
in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting
from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation
Revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA>1)
No revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA<1)
Specialisation opportunities
in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting
from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation
Skills characteristics insufficient to meet
requirements of advanced industries
Specialisation opportunities
in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting
from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation
Could explore wide spectrum of specialisation
opportunities
Specialisation opportunities
in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting
from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation
Could explore specialisation in services
Specialisation opportunities
in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting
from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increased
Revealed comparative advantage decreased
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Estonia
Finland
Germ
any
Ireland
Japan
Korea
NetherlandsNew
ZealandNorw
ay
Poland
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
Sw
eden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United
Stat
Technology
category Industry name
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
changeinRCA
2011RCA>1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus
n.e.c
Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers
Chemicals and chemical
products
Computer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery,
equipment
Computer and related activities
Research and development,others
Medium/high-
tech
manufacturing
High-tech
manufacturing
Business
services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation
Could explore specialisation in manufacturing
37
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
Limited share of low-
skilled workers
To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity
growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job
quality
Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social
outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes
Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top
end of the skill distribution are important
Increasing
participation in GVCs
How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by
importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries
inputs
Specialised in
advanced industries
Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation,
innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage)
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced industries
How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown
Increasing
productivity
Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many
channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion
Increasing
employment
Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and
job creation
Improving social
outcomes
Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour-market
security and the quality of the working environment
38
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
39
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
UK
40
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
UK
Germany
Korea
Poland
Seized the benefits of GVCs by increasing participation in GVCs,
increasing specialisation in advanced industries and delivering better
outcomes
41
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
UK
Germany
Korea
Poland
US
Denmark
Ireland
Increased participation in GVCs but have seen weak outcomes, in
part because of insufficient skills
42
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
UK
Germany
Korea
Poland
US
Denmark
Ireland
Finland
Japan
Could benefit more from participation in GVCs by deepening
specialisation in technologically advanced industries and by
increasing productivity and employment
43
Limitedshareof
low-skilledworkers
Developingskills
Advancedskills
Increasing
participationin
GVCs
Specialisedin
advancedindustries
Increasing
specialisationin
advancedindustries
Increasing
productivity
Increasing
employment
Improvingsocial
outcomes
UK
Germany
Korea
Poland
US
Denmark
Ireland
Finland
Japan
Turkey
Chile
Have increased participation in GVCs and developed skill base but
could do more to develop skills needed in advanced industries and
increase specialisation in these areas
Implications for education
and training policies
Implications for:
Education and
training policies
44
• Improve quality of education and training
• Better connect the worlds of learning and work
– Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills
characteristics and industry requirements
• Remove barriers to further skills development
– Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel
prepared to get or create a new one
45
Implications for skills policies
180 200 220 240 260 280 300
Score
Literacy skills
in younger and older generations 55-65 to 16-24 years
Average 55-65
year-olds
Average 16-24
year-olds
Chile
Singapore
Lithuania
France
Germany
New Zealand
US
UK
Participation in all education and training, by
literacy level (Adults aged 25-65 years)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Levels 4/5 Level 1 or below%
• Improve quality of education and training
• Better connect the worlds of learning and work
– Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills
characteristics and industry requirements
• Remove barriers to further skills development
– Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel
prepared to get or create a new one
• Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications
– There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications
48
Implications for skills policies
49
Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of
literacy scores, by educational attainment
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
Lower than upper secondary
Upper secondary
Tertiary
Italy
Score
25th
percentile
Mean
75th
percentile
Lower than upper secondary
Upper secondary
Tertiary
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
Japan
Score
Qualifications don’t always
equal skills
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
Less than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary
Literacy proficiency by level
of educational attainment (25-34 year olds):
Equip graduates with reliable skills-based
qualifications
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
%
Percentage of young graduates from university with a low level
(level 2 or below) of numeracy skills
Tertiary-type A only, 20-34 years-old, 2012 or 2015
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015). 51
• Improve quality of education and training
• Better connect the worlds of learning and work
– Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills
characteristics and industry requirements
• Remove barriers to further skills development
– Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel
prepared to get or create a new one
• Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications
– There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications
• Use skills more effectively
– Skills can enable countries to perform well in GVCs, but only if people are
working where they use their skills effectively
– Combine flexibility to firms with security for workers
52
Implications for skills policies
Use of skills at work
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Reading at
work
Writing at
work
Numeracy at
work
ICT at work Problem
solving at
work
United States
Japan
Most frequent use = 4
Least frequent use = 0
Indexofuse
Labour productivity and the use of
reading skills at work
AustraliaAustria
Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Flanders (Belgium)
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Lithuania
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Russian Federation
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
UK
United States
Slope = 0.666
R² = 0.321
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3
Labourproductivity(log)
Mean use of reading skills at work
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Reading Writing Numeracy ICT Problem solving
Indexofuse
1-10 employees 11-50 employees 51-250 employees
251-1000 employees 1000+ employees
Skills use at work, by proficiency
level, by firm size (OECD average)
Most frequent use = 5
Less frequent use = 1
• Improve quality of education and training
• Better connect the worlds of learning and work
– Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills
characteristics and industry requirements
• Remove barriers to further skills development
– Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel prepared
to get or create a new one
• Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications
– There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications
• Use skills more effectively
– Skills can enable countries to perform well in GVCs, but only if people are
working where they use their skills effectively
– Combine flexibility to firms with security for workers
• Enhance international collaboration on skills
– GVCs make it harder for countries to recoup their investment in skills
– Recognition of qualifications
– Financing arrangements that reflect the distribution and benefits of costs
across countries
56
Implications for skills policies
Implications for education
and training policies
Policy effort has to
go beyond education
and training policies
57
Adopt a whole-of-government approach
58
Co-ordinate these policies with other
policy domains:
 Industry
 Innovation
 Trade
 Investment
 And others…
Look at full range of reforms affecting
skills:
 Education and training
 Labour market
 Firms’ organisation and management
practices
 Migration
 And others…
59
Firms of all sizes need investing in training….
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
% Small Medium Large
Manufacturing
Services
Investment in firm-based training, by industry and firm size, 2011-12, as % of VA in the industry
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015, DOI : 10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en.
… and financial incentives aligned for skills
development
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
% of wage before
education
How much earning needs to increase after education so that people
earn back the cost of an investment in lifelong learning
Source: OECD (2017), Taxation and Skills, OECD Tax Policy Studies, No. 24.
Financial
incentives are low
60
Countries need to cooperate on education,
training, and innovation policies
Share of international or foreign students by level of tertiary education
2014
International students Foreign students
Some countries have
substantial share of
foreign students in
tertiary education
Source: OECD (2016), Education at a Glance 2016: OECD Indicators.
61
Countries can shape their potential to be part of
global education, innovation and research networks
Source: OECD, STI Micro-data Lab: Intellectual Property Database, http://oe.cd/ipstats, June
2015; OECD and SCImago Research Group (CSIC), Compendium of Bibliometric Science . 62
ARG
AUS
BRA
CAN
CHN
FRA
DEU
IND
IDN
ITA
JPN
KOR
MEX
RUS
SAU
ZAF
TUR
GBR
USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 25 50 75
International co-inventions (%)
International co-authorship (%)
G20 countries Other OECD countries
Co-inventions
countries' median
Co-authorship
countries' median
Implications for education
and training policies
Implications for:
Education and
training policies
63
Making global value chains work for all
Invest in skills
Adopt a whole-of
government approach to
skills
Co-ordinate this effort
with other policies
Develop international
cooperation
Equip the population with strong mixes of skills, well
signalled by qualifications, aligned with industries’ needs
Coordinate education, training, labour market, migration and
other policies affecting the development and use of skills
Align skills policies with trade, investment, innovation, and
industry policies to make the most of GVCs
As production, education, and innovation become
internationalised, countries need to better co-operate on
their policies
Find Out More at:
http://bit.ly/skillsout17
64
Email
Andrew.Wyckoff@OECD.org
Twitter
@OECDinnovation

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OECD Skills Outlook Global Launch - Skills and Global Value Chains

  • 1. OECD Skills Outlook Global Launch Skills and Global Value Chains @UniofBathIPR, @OECDEduSkills #OECDSkills 4 May 2017 Andreas Schleicher Andrew Wyckoff
  • 2. People are at the centre of Global Value Chains 2
  • 3. What Global Value Chains (GVCs) mean Value added The Smiling Curve 3 R&D Design Logistic purchase Production Assembling Logistic s Market ing Service s Pre-production Upstream activities Post-production Downstream activities Production Value chain activities
  • 4. 4 A comprehensive approach Exports of manufactured goods include a large share of value added from abroad Foreign value added embodied in exports, manufactured goods and services, 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Domestic, in manufactured exports Foreign, in manufactured exports Foreign, in business services exports Source: OECD Trade in Value Added database (TiVA).
  • 5. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 % EU28 East and Southeast Asia (excl. China) NAFTA China Rest of the world Many jobs depend on demand in foreign countries Source: OECD (2015b), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society. Jobs in the business sector sustained by foreign final demand, by region of demand As a percentage of total business sector employment, 2011 5
  • 6. +100 +1.1% +0.4% Source: OECD calculations based on Marcolin et al. (2016) . Technology and employment in GVCs
  • 7. 7 Investing in KBC and skills…. Countries differ in the number and type of workers performing tasks shaping the long-term functioning of firms, i.e. in their Organisational Capital. Health, Science & Engineering professionals … 12 14 12 12 12 10 9 14 19 14 15 17 17 20 15 24 20 22 21 26 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 CZE SVK ITA ESP SWE KOR DNK BEL EST DEU AUT POL IRL FRA JPN NOR USA CAN NLD GBR % Investment: Managers Investment: Non-managers Employed persons in OC occupations as a percentage of total employed persons Employment and investment in Organisational Capital, 2011-12 (As % of total VA) Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015, DOI : 10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en. Managers
  • 8. 8 …..is key to thrive in GVCs Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015, 12 14 12 12 12 10 9 14 19 14 15 17 17 20 15 24 20 22 21 26 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 CZE SVK ITA ESP SWE KOR DNK BEL EST DEU AUT POL IRL FRA JPN NOR USA CAN NLD GBR % Investment: Managers Investment: Non-managers Employment and investment in Organisational Capital, 2011-12 (As % of total VA) Source: Marcolin et al. (forthcoming) . OC over VA, by industry intensity in ICT, 2011
  • 9. 9 …..is key to thrive in GVCs Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015, ICT investment over VA, by degree of input offshoring Services industries 12 14 12 12 12 10 9 14 19 14 15 17 17 20 15 24 20 22 21 26 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 CZE SVK ITA ESP SWE KOR DNK BEL EST DEU AUT POL IRL FRA JPN NOR USA CAN NLD GBR % Investment: Managers Investment: Non-managers Employment and investment in Organisational Capital, 2011-12 (As % of total VA) Source: Marcolin et al. (forthcoming) . OC over VA, by industry intensity in ICT, 2011
  • 10. Globalisation is being questioned AUS AUT BEL CAN CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC HUN ISL ISR ITA JPN KOR LUX MEX NLD NZL NOR POL PRT SVK SVN ESP SWE TUR GBR USA -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Change in the Gini coefficient Change in backward participation in GVCs IRL Inequalities have increased or decreased in countries that have increased their participation in GVCs Source: OECD Trade in Value Added Database (TiVA); OECD Income Distribution Database. 2000-12 10
  • 12. • Realise productivity gains – offered by new technologies and participation in GVCs • Protect workers against negative impact – Job losses, lower job quality • Specialise in advanced industries and services – Innovation, higher productivity, job creation 12 Why skills?
  • 13. The Race between Technology and Education Inspired by “The race between technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard) Industrial revolution Digital revolution Social pain Universal public schooling Technology Education Prosperity Social pain Prosperity
  • 14. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Backward participation (exports) Backward participation (final demand) Forward participation (final demand) Least fragmentable industries Most fragmentable industries Percentage points Average annual increase in productivity growth, 1995-2009 Larger increase in: Transport eq., Electrical and optical eq., Food products, Chemicals Smaller increase in: Computer activities, R&D and other business activities, health and social work Source: OECD calculations based on OECD TiVA database and World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains, especially if associated with skills 14 Skills channel
  • 15. 15 Link between exports in GVCs and skills indicators Source: OECD calculations based on OECD TiVA database and Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) Countries can grow in global markets if their workers have a range of skills -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 Regression coefficient Assessed cognitive skills Task-Based skills Personality trait
  • 16. • Sources of inequality – Skill-biased technological change and institutions: important sources – Competition from low-cost countries: another source • What people do and the type of skills they develop makes a difference – More educated workers enjoy higher job quality – Gap in job strain between low and highly educated workers is larger in countries more active in GVCs • Investing in skills particularly important in countries engaged in lower end of GVCs 16 Impact of GVCs on inequalities within countries
  • 17. 17 Gap in job quality between high-skilled and low-skilled workers and participation in global value chains More educated workers enjoy better job quality AUT BEL CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC HUN IRL ITA LUX NLD NOR POL PRT SVK SVNESP SWE TUR GBR 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Gap in the quality of the working environment between high-skilled and low-skilled workers Backward participation in GVCs, % In countries more integrated in global markets, the gap in job quality between educated and less educated workers is bigger Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Job Quality Database and OECD Trade in Value Added database (TiVA). Earnings quality Level and distribution of earnings Labour-market security Risk of unemployment and available income support Quality of the working environment Nature and content of work performed, work-time arrangements and workplace relationships)
  • 18. 18 Production Marketing Services Design R&D Value added along GVCs From economic to social outcomes By investing in skills, countries can help make GVCs work for all Skills Employment Social outcomes Productivity
  • 19. 19 Limitedshareof low-skilledworkers Developingskills Advancedskills Increasing participationin GVCs Specialisedin advancedindustries Increasing specialisationin advancedindustries Increasing productivity Increasing employment Improvingsocial outcomes Limited share of low- skilled workers To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job quality Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top end of the skill distribution is important Increasing participation in GVCs How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries inputs Specialised in advanced industries Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation, innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage) Increasing specialisation in advanced industries How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown Increasing productivity Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion Increasing employment Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and job creation Improving social outcomes Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour-market security and the quality of the working environment
  • 20. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % Workers In both literacy and numeracy In literacy only In numeracy only The proportion of low performers in literacy and/or numeracy Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015). 20 More than 200m adults in OECD countries have low literacy or numeracy skills and 60% lack both
  • 21. 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 Turkey Greece Chile Lithuania Israel United States Poland Russian Federation Ireland Slovak Republic England (UK) Northern Ireland (UK) Japan OECD average Slovenia Estonia Denmark Austria Australia Canada New Zealand Germany Czech Republic Norway Flanders (Belgium) Netherlands Sweden Finland Korea Singapore Level 2 Level 3 Level 2 Level 3 Young adults (16-24 year-olds) Older adults (55-65 year-olds) % Medium to advanced digital problem-solving skills
  • 22. -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Literacy skills Numeracy skills Problem solving skills in technology-rich environments Physical skills Correlation between the employment share in high routine jobs and average workers’ skills Workers in high routine jobs tend to have low cognitive skills Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012); and Marcolin, L., S. Miroudot and M. Squicciarini (2016), ‘Routine jobs, employment and technological innovation in global value chains’, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, No. 2016/01. Workers in high routine jobs tend to have high physical skills 23 Those with higher cognitive skills are less likely to be in routine jobs
  • 23. 24 Limitedshareof low-skilledworkers Developingskills Advancedskills Increasing participationin GVCs Specialisedin advancedindustries Increasing specialisationin advancedindustries Increasing productivity Increasing employment Improvingsocial outcomes Limited share of low- skilled workers To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job quality Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top end of the skill distribution is important Increasing participation in GVCs How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries inputs Specialised in advanced industries Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation, innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage) Increasing specialisation in advanced industries How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown Increasing productivity Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion Increasing employment Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and job creation Improving social outcomes Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour-market security and the quality of the working environment
  • 24. Countries can shape their specialisation within global value chains through the skills of their populations 25
  • 25. 26 Change in specialisation, 2000-11: Increase Decrease Source: OECD calculations based on the Trade in Value Added Database. Most OECD countries have increased their specialisation in technologically advanced industries Decrease in low tech. industries Increase in high tech. industries AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChile Czech Republic Denm ark EstoniaFinlandGerm any GreeceIrelandIsraelJapanKoreaNetherlands New Zealand Norw ayPolandSlovakRepublic SloveniaSw edenTurkeyUnited Kingdom United States Low-tech manufacturing Food products Textiles Wood Pulp and paper Manufacturing n.e.c Coke, petroleum Rubber products Other mineral products Basic metals Fabricated metal products Wholesale and retail trade Hotels and restaurants Transport and storage Post and telecom. Machinery and eq. Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Chemicals Computer, optical Other transport eq. Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of eq. Computer R&D Low-tech manufacturing Medium/low-tech manufacturing Business services (less complex) Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex)
  • 26. Specialising in most technologically advanced industries (incl. services) requires a good alignment of countries’ skills with industries’ skills requirements For instance, the finance and insurance industry requires : Workers with good numeracy skills but also managing and communicating skills to perform the various activities Pools of workers with qualifications that reflect what they can do: Many technologically advanced industries involve long sequences of tasks and poor performance at any stage greatly reduces the value of output 27
  • 27. 30 Countries can increase specialisation within GVCs through their skills characteristics The effect of countries’ skills characteristics on specialisation within GVCs Change in exports (in value added terms) Source: OECD calculations based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) and Trade in Value Added Database. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Numeracy and literacy Literacy and problem- solving in technology-rich environment Numeracy and problem- solving in technology-rich environment % Skills mix Pools of workers with qualifications reflecting what they can doDifferences in countries to equip workers with right skill mix can lead to differences in relative exports • 8% between two countries with average differences in skill mix • Up to 60% between two countries with large difference in skill mix
  • 28. Specialisation opportunities in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) The revealed comparative advantage captures countries’ specialisation in industries within global value chains. It shows the comparative advantage/disadvantage a country has in an industry relative to other countries and all other industries Revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA>1) No revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA<1)
  • 29. Specialisation opportunities in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation Revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA>1) No revealed comparative advantage (2011RCA<1)
  • 30. Specialisation opportunities in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation Skills characteristics insufficient to meet requirements of advanced industries
  • 31. Specialisation opportunities in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation Could explore wide spectrum of specialisation opportunities
  • 32. Specialisation opportunities in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation Could explore specialisation in services
  • 33. Specialisation opportunities in complex business services, high-tech and medium high-tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Revealed comparative advantage increased Revealed comparative advantage decreased Australia Austria Canada Chile Estonia Finland Germ any Ireland Japan Korea NetherlandsNew ZealandNorw ay Poland SlovakRepublic Slovenia Sw eden Turkey United Kingdom United Stat Technology category Industry name changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 changeinRCA 2011RCA>1 Machinery and equipment n.e.c Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.c Motor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailers Chemicals and chemical products Computer, electronic, and optical Other transport equipment Finance and insurance Real estate activities Renting of machinery, equipment Computer and related activities Research and development,others Medium/high- tech manufacturing High-tech manufacturing Business services (more complex) Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisation Could explore specialisation in manufacturing
  • 34. 37 Limitedshareof low-skilledworkers Developingskills Advancedskills Increasing participationin GVCs Specialisedin advancedindustries Increasing specialisationin advancedindustries Increasing productivity Increasing employment Improvingsocial outcomes Limited share of low- skilled workers To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job quality Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top end of the skill distribution are important Increasing participation in GVCs How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries inputs Specialised in advanced industries Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation, innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage) Increasing specialisation in advanced industries How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown Increasing productivity Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion Increasing employment Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and job creation Improving social outcomes Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour-market security and the quality of the working environment
  • 41. Implications for education and training policies Implications for: Education and training policies 44
  • 42. • Improve quality of education and training • Better connect the worlds of learning and work – Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills characteristics and industry requirements • Remove barriers to further skills development – Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel prepared to get or create a new one 45 Implications for skills policies
  • 43. 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 Score Literacy skills in younger and older generations 55-65 to 16-24 years Average 55-65 year-olds Average 16-24 year-olds Chile Singapore Lithuania France Germany New Zealand US UK
  • 44. Participation in all education and training, by literacy level (Adults aged 25-65 years) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Levels 4/5 Level 1 or below%
  • 45. • Improve quality of education and training • Better connect the worlds of learning and work – Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills characteristics and industry requirements • Remove barriers to further skills development – Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel prepared to get or create a new one • Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications – There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications 48 Implications for skills policies
  • 46. 49 Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of literacy scores, by educational attainment 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 Lower than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary Italy Score 25th percentile Mean 75th percentile Lower than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 Japan Score Qualifications don’t always equal skills
  • 47. 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 Less than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary Literacy proficiency by level of educational attainment (25-34 year olds):
  • 48. Equip graduates with reliable skills-based qualifications 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 % Percentage of young graduates from university with a low level (level 2 or below) of numeracy skills Tertiary-type A only, 20-34 years-old, 2012 or 2015 Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015). 51
  • 49. • Improve quality of education and training • Better connect the worlds of learning and work – Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills characteristics and industry requirements • Remove barriers to further skills development – Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel prepared to get or create a new one • Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications – There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications • Use skills more effectively – Skills can enable countries to perform well in GVCs, but only if people are working where they use their skills effectively – Combine flexibility to firms with security for workers 52 Implications for skills policies
  • 50. Use of skills at work 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 Reading at work Writing at work Numeracy at work ICT at work Problem solving at work United States Japan Most frequent use = 4 Least frequent use = 0 Indexofuse
  • 51. Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work AustraliaAustria Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland Flanders (Belgium) France Germany Greece Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Russian Federation Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Turkey UK United States Slope = 0.666 R² = 0.321 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 Labourproductivity(log) Mean use of reading skills at work
  • 52. 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Reading Writing Numeracy ICT Problem solving Indexofuse 1-10 employees 11-50 employees 51-250 employees 251-1000 employees 1000+ employees Skills use at work, by proficiency level, by firm size (OECD average) Most frequent use = 5 Less frequent use = 1
  • 53. • Improve quality of education and training • Better connect the worlds of learning and work – Countries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills characteristics and industry requirements • Remove barriers to further skills development – Don’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel prepared to get or create a new one • Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications – There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications • Use skills more effectively – Skills can enable countries to perform well in GVCs, but only if people are working where they use their skills effectively – Combine flexibility to firms with security for workers • Enhance international collaboration on skills – GVCs make it harder for countries to recoup their investment in skills – Recognition of qualifications – Financing arrangements that reflect the distribution and benefits of costs across countries 56 Implications for skills policies
  • 54. Implications for education and training policies Policy effort has to go beyond education and training policies 57
  • 55. Adopt a whole-of-government approach 58 Co-ordinate these policies with other policy domains:  Industry  Innovation  Trade  Investment  And others… Look at full range of reforms affecting skills:  Education and training  Labour market  Firms’ organisation and management practices  Migration  And others…
  • 56. 59 Firms of all sizes need investing in training…. 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 % Small Medium Large Manufacturing Services Investment in firm-based training, by industry and firm size, 2011-12, as % of VA in the industry Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015, DOI : 10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en.
  • 57. … and financial incentives aligned for skills development 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 % of wage before education How much earning needs to increase after education so that people earn back the cost of an investment in lifelong learning Source: OECD (2017), Taxation and Skills, OECD Tax Policy Studies, No. 24. Financial incentives are low 60
  • 58. Countries need to cooperate on education, training, and innovation policies Share of international or foreign students by level of tertiary education 2014 International students Foreign students Some countries have substantial share of foreign students in tertiary education Source: OECD (2016), Education at a Glance 2016: OECD Indicators. 61
  • 59. Countries can shape their potential to be part of global education, innovation and research networks Source: OECD, STI Micro-data Lab: Intellectual Property Database, http://oe.cd/ipstats, June 2015; OECD and SCImago Research Group (CSIC), Compendium of Bibliometric Science . 62 ARG AUS BRA CAN CHN FRA DEU IND IDN ITA JPN KOR MEX RUS SAU ZAF TUR GBR USA 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 25 50 75 International co-inventions (%) International co-authorship (%) G20 countries Other OECD countries Co-inventions countries' median Co-authorship countries' median
  • 60. Implications for education and training policies Implications for: Education and training policies 63 Making global value chains work for all Invest in skills Adopt a whole-of government approach to skills Co-ordinate this effort with other policies Develop international cooperation Equip the population with strong mixes of skills, well signalled by qualifications, aligned with industries’ needs Coordinate education, training, labour market, migration and other policies affecting the development and use of skills Align skills policies with trade, investment, innovation, and industry policies to make the most of GVCs As production, education, and innovation become internationalised, countries need to better co-operate on their policies
  • 61. Find Out More at: http://bit.ly/skillsout17 64 Email Andrew.Wyckoff@OECD.org Twitter @OECDinnovation

Notas del editor

  1. OECD work analyses the relationship between the routine intensity of occupations and trade in value-added patterns. It sheds light on the way in which ICT, innovation and industry structure explain the distribution of jobs in GVCs and affect employment at the country and industry levels. Among other result a strong and positive association between innovative output and employment emerges: 100 extra patents in the industry are associated to approximately +1.1% non-routine (NonR + LowR) workers, and +0.4% routine (MediumR+HighR) workers. Conversely, a more intensive use of ICT leads to more employment in non-routine jobs, but hurts routine workers: a 1 percentage point increase in ICT intensity is associated to approximately +0.4% non-routine (NonR + LowR) workers, and -0.3% routine (MediumR+HighR) workers. These are controlled correlations, i.e. the associations take into account industry/country differences in institutions, skills, GVC participation, innovation, level of competition, cost of labour, size of the industry. Each bar corresponds to a different regression.
  2. Countries already differ importantly in the extent in which they invest in KBC. Of the different types of OC that exist 2 are of paramount importance for participation in GVCs. One is organisational capital, i.e. number and type of workers performing tasks shaping the long-term functioning of firms. These include but are not limited to managers, and encompass different types of professionals, including health, science and engineering professionals. The other is ICT
  3. OC and ICT investment are highly complementary (figure at the top right corner) And evidence shows that higher investment in ICT is positively related to participation in GVCs (bottom left figure)
  4. OC and ICT investment are highly complementary (figure at the top right corner) And evidence shows that higher investment in ICT is positively related to participation in GVCs (bottom left figure)
  5. Goldin and Katz call this the race between technology and educaiton.,
  6. [This is an estimate we made following the literature. It is always difficult to identify a causal link between participation in GVCs and productivity because it is the most productive firms that participate in GVCs. The methodology tries to correct for this problem as far as possible but there are data limitations. The idea that firms need to have the skills to transform participation in GVCs into productivity gains is well supported by the literature and case studies that we extensively quote in the publication.] [These productivity gains are the maximum gains – average annual increase in productivity growth – that some countries may have experienced over the last decades. They are estimated for different types of participation in GVCs –backward/forward- for the case of a maximum increase in participation.] The extent to which people can plug into global value chains greatly depends on their skills. This is the topic of this year’s edition of the Skills Outlook. Participation in GVCs offers important opportunities for productivity gains. Because it enables countries to specialise in activities they are good at. Because workers who use intermediates produced abroad in their production activities can see another technology and learn from it. This is an estimate of the productivity gains that can be achieved through participation in GVCs. These gains are at an industry level and they are higher in industries that offer a bigger potential for fragmentation than those with a lower potential. The relatively high level of skills [proxied by the level of education] of countries with a high participation in GVCs in the beginning of the period explains partly the increasing effect. Countries can achieve productivity gains by participating in GVCs but they need to have workers with the relevant skills. One reason is that workers need to have the capacity to learn from new technologies and production modes
  7. To analyse the role of skills in GVCs, we have combined the TiVA and PIAAC databases. In all industries, workers need to have strong cognitive skills, managing and communicating skills, and readiness to learn, to participate and grow in global markets. There is a clear relationship between skills and exports in GVCs, especially for cognitive skills. In industries and countries with workers with stronger cognitive skills, exports in GVCs are stronger. Other types of skills such as the readiness to learn also play an important role. Some social and emotional skills appear to be less related to exports. This is because these skills are important when combined with other skills, something that will be discussed later in the publication. [It is also because social an emotional skills are not directly assessed in PIAAC. These indicators are built by using information on the tasks performed on the job.]
  8. This publication shows that by investing in skills, countries can help make GVCs work for all. On the bottom part of the slide: the smiling curve, on the top part of slide: the economic and social outcomes. Countries need workers with strong skills to enter global markets along the smiling curve and achieve productivity gains. Countries need skills mixes to specialise in technologically advanced industries and climb the global value chain, something we’ll present into depth in the next slides. This would lead to stronger productivity growth and could lead to employment growth. If, in addition, the country has a limited share of low skilled workers, then it’s possible to move up the value chain while keeping everyone on board and thereby achieving good social outcomes.
  9. [The graph shows the correlation between the gap in job quality between high-educated and low-educated workers and integration in global markets. Job quality is measured by the OECD along 3 dimensions and here we show only one dimension, the quality of the working environment or pressure at work. The indicator of integration in global markets is backward participation, the share of foreign value added in exports.] There are concerns that GVCs could lead to lower job quality because it increases the work pressure or labour market insecurity. In all countries more educated workers have jobs of a better quality. This graph shows that the gap in job quality between high and low educated workers is bigger in countries that are more integrated into global markets. Having the relevant skills can help workers face some of the negative implications of GVCs, such as a lower job quality.
  10. For each type of skills combination…
  11. For each type of skills combination…
  12. Or look at this chart, where you see the middle half of the skill distribution of Italian graduates at different levels. You can see that Italians who did not complete school are not all low skilled. Significant overlap. It is also striking that, on average, young Japanese and Dutch high school graduates easily outperform university graduates in some other countries. In fact, in most countries at least a quarter of university graduates do not score higher than Level 2 on our literacy test, and are thus insufficiently equipped for what their jobs demand of them. Conversely, in Australia, Finland, Japan, the Netherlands and Norway, more than one in four adults without a high school degree have made it to Level 3 in literacy, which shows that people can, indeed, recover from poor initial schooling. Surely there are many reasons why skills and qualifications differ; but these data suggest that we may need to update and re-define our education qualifications. Countries like Italy or Spain also need to think whether their universities are telling their students the truth when they are certifying their skills.
  13. This slide shows the positive relationship between labour productivity (GDP per hour worked) at the country level and the average intensity of the use of reading skills at work. This relationship holds even when controls are added for literacy proficiency. This relationship will to a degree reflect the industrial and occupational structure of the countries concerned.
  14. Both supply and demand need moving in the same direction. On the one hand firms need investing more in firms, and dp so throughout the life of their workers
  15. On the other hand, workers need investing in their own skills and, to do so, incentives, also monetary ones, need being aligned