Presentation delivered at the OECD RTTA workshop on "The green transition: What role for regional public employment services?" held on 12 May 2023 in Trento, Italy More info: https://oe.cd/4YW

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BRIDGING THE GREAT GREEN DIVIDE
JOB CREATION AND LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2023
Dr. Lukas Kleine-Rüschkamp
Coordinator – Local Labour Market Analysis
OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities

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Bridging the Great Green Divide
The green transition
and jobs, what do we
know?
Implications for
local jobs, skills
and economic
development
Lessons from past
transitions
The way forward:
local actions for a
green future

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The push for green growth
Across the OECD,
green policies
abound
• Clear ramifications for
jobs and economic
development
But labour market
impacts are less clear
• Who will benefit or face
risks?
• Where will be the impact
largest?
• What is a green job?

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How can we measure green jobs in regions?
Green jobs can be
classified in two ways
Our approach is bottom-up.
We measure jobs with green tasks.
Top-down
Industry/Sector
Industries/GHG
Bottom-up
Occupations
Tasks or skills
Main advantages:
• Captures regional information
• Captures the entire economy
• Directly linked to policy

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What are green jobs?
Green jobs have
at least 10%of tasks
directly supporting
sustainable development

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Divides across places: geography of green
jobs Share of green-task jobs
Green regional
employment
shares
Less than 10%
in South
Dakota (US)
Western
Greece
Newfoundland
and Labrador
(Canada)
30% or more
Stockholm,
(Sweden) Oslo
& Viken,
(Norway) Île-
de-France
Within-country
disparity
5 pp or less
Austria,
Australia,
Switzerland,
Italy
More than 10 pp
United States,
France, Finland,
Hungary

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Divides across places: geography of
“polluting” jobs
Share of polluting jobs
Australian Capital
Territory, Wellington (NZL),
Greater London: <5%
La Rioja (Spain)
Central Moravia (Czech Republic)
> 25%
Regions relying on “polluting” jobs face greater risks of job losses

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Local labour markets are greening… slowly
Little change in share of green jobs… … but the demand is increasingly green
Around 18% of workers in the
OECD have jobs with a
significant share of green tasks,
up from 16% a decade ago

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What explains regional differences?
Over- and underrepresentation of green-task and
polluting jobs in capital regions
Regions’ ability to benefit from the green
transition depends on:
• Industrial composition
• Educational attainment of the workforce
• Innovation activity
• R&D investments
In capital regions green-task jobs are over-
represented and polluting jobs underrepresented

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Divides by gender In a subset of OECD countries, over 20
million women would need to change to
green jobs to reach gender parity

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Divides across workers in skills and
pay
Employees in green-task jobs
have:
• Higher levels of formal education
• Higher average skills levels
• 20-30% higher wage premium
relative to non-green jobs
Workers in polluting jobs are
least likely to participate in
trainings
Highly educated workers are over-represented
in green-task jobs

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Divides across firms by size, more in large firms
Large firms account for
31% of green jobs,
Higher share than
other jobs

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Italian regional labour markets are slightly
less green than the OECD average
• 16.3% of workers in
green-task jobs; 1.4
percentage points
above the OECD
average of 17.7%.
• Only 5 out of 21
regions recorded an
increase in the
share of green-task
jobs between 2011
and 2020
16.7%
15.1%
17.5%
17.6%
17.1%
14.1%
14.3%
13.1%
14.2%
15.3%
13.9%
15%
12.9%
15.3%
16.2%
14.5%
18.2%
17.4%
17.7%
16.8%
16.3%
16.3%
17.6%
Emilia-Romagna
Umbria
Lombardy
OECD
Liguria
Tuscany
Abruzzo
Marche
Piedmont
Lazio
Italy
Veneto
Province of Trento
Calabria
Aosta Valley
Sardinia
Friuli-Venezia Giulia
Campania
Basilicata
Molise
Sicily
Apulia
Province of Bolzano-Bozen
0% 5% 10% 15%
Share of Green-task Jobs
2021 2011

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But more polluting jobs at risk in Italy
• On average around
16.7% of Italian
workers are
employed in
polluting jobs.
• OECD average is 5
p.p lower, 11.7%
• 15 out of 21 regions
recorded a
decrease in the
share of polluting
jobs (on average
around -1 p.p.)
between 2011 and
2020

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Even fewer women in green jobs in Italy
• Only a fifth of workers in green
jobs in Italy (20.3%) are women.
• Thus, the share of women in
green jobs is lower than in the
OECD (28%).

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Similarities in transitions:
Large adjustment costs
Uneven effects: geographically and
demographically.
Mitigation requires decisive and proactive
measures.
Inaction risks resentment.
Globalisation:
Driven by deregulation and competitiveness
Exit from coal
Highly market-driven (natural gas, oil,
automation),
The phase-out of coal affects a significantly
smaller fraction of the labour market.
Exit from coal
•Market-driven
•Affects a significantly
small fraction of the
labour market.
Digitalisation
•Affects vast majority
of jobs in OECD
countries
Globalisation
•Driven by
deregulation and
competitiveness
Green transition
•Policy-driven
•Positive externalities
of the exceed
employment and
economic gains.
Similarities in transitions
Large adjustment costs | Uneven effects | Inaction risks resentment
Lessons from past transitions

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Local and national success drivers
from past transitions
Share a clear
and long-term
vision and
strategy
Anticipate and
pursue
proactive
measures
Build strong
coalitions
focussing on
social inclusion
Invest in local
re-skilling
programmes
Invest in
attractiveness
of the region
and innovation
Similarities in transitions from coal, digitalisation, globalisation, however the
green transition is more policy than market driven

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The way forward:
local actions for a
green future
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Local actions for a green future
Local adult
learning
systems that help
workers adapt to
the changing labour
market
C
D
A
Green skills
coalitions
for environmental
policies to be met
with labour market
interventions
Labour Market
Intelligence
that informs
effective green
policies
B
Public
Employment
Services that
ensure a just
transition
E
Local development
efforts that help firms
create green jobs and
boost local economic
growth

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Success relies on effective
collaboration of various stakeholders
Better alignment of environmental and labour
market policy
through collaboration across ministries
Engagement of regional and local governments
to reflect the place-specific impact of the green
transition
Local green skills coalition
for better-informed policy response and to secure
buy-in

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► For students, workers and employers to
avoid green skills shortages and mismatches
► For policy makers, training institutions
and PES
▪ To put in place policies and services
that enable the green transition
▪ To effectively support displaced
workers
► Reflect the impact of environmental
policies in models used to produce LMI
► Collect regional and sectoral data
given the differences in the impact of the
green transition
► Include users of LMI in their
governance structure to ensure good
alignment with policy use
► Carry out complementary, targeted
studies e.g., on individuals at high-risk
of unemployment
Effective policies: based on timely
and reliable labour market intelligence
Why needed? What can be done?

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How can local adult learning systems
become enablers of a green future?
Challenges
• Adult learning systems are already
struggling to keep up with labour market
changes
• Green transition will increase the need to
re-skill and up-skill workers
Strategies
• Comprehensive strategy and systematic
review of curricula needed
• Sectoral approach: prioritisation of sectors
heavily affected by the green transition
• Additional strategies for regions (i)
dependent on polluting jobs, and (ii) at the
forefront of the transition
• Support and incentives for employers to
train workforce (focus on SMEs)

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What is the role of Public Employment
Services in the green transition?
Role 1:
Support
the transition
of workers in
polluting jobs
Role 2:
Offer services
that reflect
the effects of the
green transition
Proactively
identify workers
at risk of
displacement
Offer career
guidance and
training tailored
to individual
needs
Collaborate with
employers when
designing and
delivering training
Use up-to-date
LMI to reflect the
impact of the
green transition
in services
Provide green
skills training,
especially in
sectors with
shortages
Consider the
double-dividend
of placing
workers in green
jobs

28. Thank you very much
Lukas.Kleine-rueschkamp@oecd.org