Forty years of productivity and resilience in European regions -Alexandra Tsvetkova

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Presentation by Alexandra Tsvetkova, Lead, Spatial Productivity Lab, OECD Trento Centre for Local Development at the 18th OECD Spatial Productivity Lab webinar held on 6 December 2022. More info https://oe.cd/spl

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@OECD_local www.linkedin.com/company/oecd-local www.oecd.org/cfe
FORTY YEARS OF PRODUCTIVITY
AND RESILIENCE
IN EUROPEAN REGIONS
Alexandra Tsvetkova, Spatial Productivity Lab Trento Centre for Local
Development

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | 2
Ability of a
regional economy
during and after
a crisis
to adjust
to recover
to withstand Robustness
Recovery
Reorganisation
What is regional economic resilience?

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
Three questions
1 2 3
Why resilience
matters?
Which economic
characteristics are
linked to resilience?
What does it
mean for
policy?

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
Why resilience matters?
4
It can safeguard places from
slipping into a permanently lower path of
employment performance
1

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
Why resilience matters?
5
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Most resilient regions Least resilient regions
Employment-to-population ratio || 1992-93 recession

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
Why resilience matters?
6
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Most resilient regions Least resilient regions
Employment-to-population ratio || 1992-93 recession
1
2
3

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
What economic characteristics
predict resilience?
7
Pre-crisis productivity is the
only consistent predictorof resilience
(smaller decrease in employment and higher likelihood of recovery)
2

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
+ EUR1000 in labour productivity
8
0.05pp smaller
difference in
employment growth
3-4pp smaller
difference in most
productive regions
3-4pp larger difference
in least productive
regions
(except for COVID-19)
Robustness

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
+ EUR1000 in labour productivity
9
1.1-1.2 higher
likelihood (odds ratio)
of recovery
Higher productivity
increases the
likelihood of recovery
in less productive
places only
Recovery

© OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local |
What does it mean for policy
o Strong case for thinking about regional productivity and resilience together
o Higher productivity signals greater resources and capabilities, including an ability of a place to
renew its technological, industrial and institutional structures
o Faster resource reallocation within regional economies and creation of novel combinations of
capabilities can soften the shocks and open new growth paths, particularly in weaker places
o Importantly, places that are “in the habit” of renewal and constant readjustments are likely to be
better prepared to quickly react to a crisis, i.e. to be more resilient
o Policies that support “flow and readjustment” can boost both productivity and economic
resilience; examples are policies promoting local skills development, diversified industrial base and
dynamic business environment
3


Twitter: @OECD_local
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/oecd-local
Website: www.oecd.org/cfe
Thank you!
Alexandra.Tsvetkova@oecd.org
OECD Trento Centre for Local Development

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