Implications of low-carbon hydrogen production on renewable energy systems webinar, 30 March 2023, Paris, CEFIM, OECD

1. Hanoi, 25 March 2023
Dr. Pham Duy Hoang – Research Analyst
Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition (VIETSE)

2. 1. Context
2. Overview of hydrogen production in Vietnam
3. Potential and opportunity for green hydrogen production in Vietnam
4. Conclusions and recommendations
2

3. 3
Resolution 55/NQ/TW/2020
Industry
strategy
(No.1266/Q
D-TTg/2020)
Power
Development
Plan VIII
(Draft, 2022)
National Energy
Master Plan
(Draft, 2022)
Energy
transition in
transportation
(876/QD-TTg/2022)
Green
growth
strategy
(882/QD-
TTg/2022)
Strategy for
climate
change
896/QD-
TTg/2022
Target hydrogen production
through electrolysis and CCS
process
• 2030: 0.4-0.5 Mt
• 2050: 40-50 Mt
Encourage the adoption of green hydrogen

4. 1. Context
2. Overview of hydrogen production in Vietnam
3. Potential and opportunity for green hydrogen production in Vietnam
4. Conclusions and recommendations
4

5. 5
Total hydrogen consumption in 2020
• Production and consumption are at the same site in refinery and fertilizer plants.
Source: VPI, 2022
Source: VPI, 2022
2.07
17.43
12.31
11.33
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dung Quat
refinery
Nghi Son refinery Phu My fertilizer Ca Mau fertilizer
Gasification Steam Reforming
Ton
H2/
hour
Source: VPI, 2022
Hydrogen production at plants
39
138.4
97.5
89.7
68.3
60.9
2.27
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dung Quat
Refinery
Nghi Son
Refinery
Phu My
Fertilizer
Plant
Ca Mau
Fertilizer
Plant
Ninh Binh
Fertilizer
Plant
Ha Bac
Fertilizer
Plant
Other
Kt
H2/year

6. 6
Three green hydrogen production plants
currently proposed by private investors
Thang Long Wind2 (Off-shore)
• ~ 250 Kt H2/year
Tra Vinh green hydrogen plant
• 24 Kt H2/year
• 150–180 Kt Ammonia/year
Ben Tre green hydrogen plant
• 24-60 Kt H2/year
• 150–375 Kt Ammonia/year
Paracel Islands
Spratly Islands

7. 7
The potential of wind power
Source: Global Wind Atlas, 2023
§ Rooftop solar: 48.24 GW
§ Ground solar: 837.48 GW
§ Floating solar: 77.35 GW.
Technical potential of Solar power (963.1 GW)
Technical potential of Wind power (386.3 GW)
§ Off-shore wind power: 165.20 GW
§ On-shore wind power: 221.13 GW
The potential of solar power
Source: Global Solar Atlas, 2023

8. 1. Background
2. Overview of hydrogen production in Vietnam
3. Potential and opportunity for green hydrogen production in Vietnam
4. Conclusions and recommendations
8

9. 9
Source: VIETSE, 2023
The technical potential
of wind power
11.7-17.9 GW
80.9-130.6 GW
Electricity generation
386.3 GW
Electricity generation
374.6-
368.4 GW
255.8-
305.5 GW
The technical potential
of solar power
16.5- GW
109.6-146.5 GW
Electricity generation
963.1 GW
Electricity generation
Used for Green Hydrogen
production
946.6 GW
816.5-
853.4 GW
Used for Green Hydrogen
production
Amount of
redundant
wind power
in 2030
Amount of
redundant
wind power
in 2050
Amount of
redundant
solar power
in 2030
Amount of
redundant
solar power
in 2050

10. 10
• Theoretical production potential: 52-62 Mt per year
• It requires large employment and investment in RE sources.
Source: VIETSE, 2023
The theoretical hydrogen production potential from RE sources
22.5
40
62.5
18.4
34.5
52.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Wind power Solar power Total
Mt
H2/year
Low promotion of RE electricity (PDP8 draft) High promotion of renewable electricity (DPP8 draft)

11. 11
The expected LCOH in several countries in 2030
The expected LCOH in several countries in 2050
• China, Australia, and Russia are high competitors
• The US, EU, and Japan are potential markets for
Vietnam’s green hydrogen export
Source: VIETSE collected from multiple hydrogen development strategies, 2023
In 2023, the ceiling prices of the power generation
(VAT excluded) for solar and wind power plants during
the transitional phase (Decision 21/QD-BCT, 2023)
• Onshore wind farms: 6.7 cents/kWh
• Offshore wind farms: 7.7 cents/kWh
• Floating solar farms: 6.4 cents/kWh
• Ground solar farms: 5.0 cents/kWh
à Green hydrogen price: $2.61 – $4/Kg H2
Source: VIETSE collected from multiple hydrogen development strategies, 2023

12. 12
1. Background
2. Overview of hydrogen production in Vietnam
3. Potential and opportunity for green hydrogen production in Vietnam
4. Conclusions and recommendations

13. 13
• Current hydrogen production and production is at the same site
• Large GH production potential, 52-62 Mt of GH per year
• Both opportunity and challenge are existing for green hydrogen development
• Enhance RE development to explore GH production potentials
• Implement pilot projects in the short term and scale up in the long term.
• Smart Port, Green Shipping & Shipbuilding
• Implement supportive policies: R&D funding on technology development and financial policies
for infrastructure development, and incentives for the GH export/import market.
• Regulatory framework: standards for safety, quality, and performance, as well as regulations
that encourage the adoption of green hydrogen in different sectors.

14. Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition (VIETSE)
Email: info@vietse.vn or hoangpham@vietse.vn
Website: www.vietse.vn
Telephone: +84 (0) 243 204 5554
Facebook: VIET SE (@vietsehanoi)
LinkedIn: Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition
Address: 7th Floor, 18 Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi, Vietnam