Assessing the Effectiveness of Adaptation-related Development Finance
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Presentation by Eric Williams, OECD at COP23.
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Assessing the Effectiveness of Adaptation-related Development Finance
- 1. Assessing the Effectiveness of Adaptation-related Development Finance Eric Williams, OECD COP23, Bonn • 8 November 2017
- 2. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USDBillions Adaptation-related development finance reported to OECD
- 3. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Small Island Developing States Least Developed and Low Income Countries Lower Middle Income Countries Upper Middle Income Countries 2015USDbillions 2015USDpercapita Cumulative climate-related development finance for SIDS and by income group (2010-2015) Adaptation per capita Mitigation per capita Total adaptation Total mitigation
- 4. Cumulative adaptation-related development finance per capita (2010-2015)
- 6. Measuring progress • Progress in adaptive capacity is complex • IPCC defines adaptive capacity as the ability to “adjust to potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to the consequences” of climate change – Physical: e.g. storm surge barriers – Behavioral: e.g. changing agricultural practices – Institutional: e.g. government’s ability to respond to extreme weather events – Etc.
- 7. Assessing effectiveness of adaptation finance • Explore relationships between critical dimensions of adaptive capacity for which we have credible data and adaptation finance, e.g. – Are changes in data representing adaptive capacity in agriculture correlated with adaptation finance targeted to agriculture? – Are these changes consistent across countries? 7
- 8. ND-GAIN: top adaptation finance per capita recipients (2013-15) in color
- 9. Conclusions • Climate change can erase hard-won development gains in vulnerable countries • Important to begin to understand how effective adaptation finance is in improving adaptive capacity • OECD houses a rich database that can be tapped to begin these explorations
- 10. Backup slides
- 11. Potential explorations: top 40 sectors receiving Rio marked adaptation finance Purpose Code Sector Agricultural development Food crop production Agricultural land resources Forestry development Agricultural policy & administrative management Forestry policy & administrative management Agricultural research Formal sector financial intermediaries Agricultural water resources Material relief assistance and services Basic drinking water supply Multisector aid Basic drinking water supply and basic sanitation Public sector policy and administrative management Bio-diversity Reconstruction relief and rehabilitation Biosphere protection River basins development Business support services & institutions Road transport Democratic participation and civil society Rural development Disaster prevention and preparedness Sanitation - large systems Electric power transmission and distribution Sectors not specified Energy generation, renewable sources - multiple technologies Trade policy and admin. management Energy policy and administrative management Urban development and management Environmental policy and admin. mgmt Water resources policy/administrative management Environmental research Water resources protection Financial policy & administrative management Water supply - large systems Flood prevention/control Water supply and sanitation - large systems Food aid/Food security programmes Water transport
Notas del editor
- SIDS receive the highest per capita adaptation-related development finance, followed by LDCs and Other LICs.
- I think seeing data expressed through maps is the easiest way to grasp the distribution of adaptation finance across countries and regions. The darker the blue, the higher the per capita adaptation finance. The 20 or so highest per capita recipients are SIDs and are not very visible on the map. I’d like to show you the evolution in adaptation finance per capita with two year rolling averages Take particular note of the evolution in SSA, Central Asia and parts of South America as they become progressively darker blue.
- The timing of donor commitments entails a certain fluctuation over time – the 2 year rolling average smooths it to some extent but it is still there Adaptation per capita clearly goes up in SSA, Central Asia, and parts of Latin America SIDS per capita adaptation finance range roughly from $40 (Fiji) to $4,700 (Niue) What is enough? Is it effective in building adaptive capacity
- Progress in mitigation is conceptually straightforward though it can get complicated the more precise we try to be. In simple terms it is counting the tons of GHGs reduced or avoided. Measuring progress in adaptive capacity is much more difficult conceptually because adaptation itself is much more complex.
- We are fortunate to have a rich database of climate-related development finance at the project level that can be sliced and diced to look at commitments from donor countries, to recipient countries, in sectors, and over time. We’ve given some thought about how one might explore this data, along with some external data, to answer some policy-relevant questions around the effectiveness of climate-related development finance.
- This figure shows all 181 countries in the ND-GAIN plotted by vulnerability to climate change and readiness to adapt. Movement from the top left to the bottom right suggests progress in adaptive capacity, and overall there is a trend in this direction over time. The dots in color represent the countries receiving the highest per capita adaptation finance over the last several years and are for the most part SIDs. I want to give some important caveats. ND-GAIN is an index that attempts to aggregate data and statistics to represent a country’s vulnerability to climate change and readiness to adapt. Criticism is that choices in data and how they are combined into aggregate indices are seemingly arbitrary; different choices would result in very different index values, especially for some countries. Nevertheless, ND-GAIN is an attempt to compile relevant data for 181 countries from 1995 to 2015 and so can be illuminating. Perhaps with different data and different choices in how to aggregate it, the trends would not be so clear.
- These are the top 40 purpose codes or sectors receiving Rio marked adaptation finance from 2010 through 2015. I’m showing these just to give a flavor of the kind of sector detail within the database that can be explored along adaptation dimensions.
- So now let’s take a look at climate finance totals by country. This map is quite busy, but it does convey a lot of information. The size of the circles represent the absolute amount of adaptation and mitigation finance combined, and the share of mitigation is blue, and the share of adaptation is yellow. You can see that the shares of adaptation and mitigation are very balanced in SSA apart from South Africa, yet the magnitude of funding is low compared to countries in other regions. Most of Asia has a much higher percentage of mitigation and a much higher total climate finance. Latin America also has a much higher share of mitigation than adaptation, but the magnitudes are lower than in Asia. But what does all this mean for mitigation and adaptation outcomes?