Interim Meeting of the Network on Fiscal Relations Across Levels of Government November 2021

1. Will health spending and revenues be
sustainable in the long-term?
Matt Crooke
Assistant Secretary
Commonwealth-State Relations Branch
Australian Treasury

2. Chart 1: Central Government – Fiscal Position
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31 2040-41 2050-51 2060-61
% of GDP
% of GDP
Underlying cash balance
Primary balance
Net interest

3. Chart 2: Central Government - spending across
intergenerational reports
15
20
25
30
35
15
20
25
30
35
2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31 2040-41 2050-51 2060-61
% of GDP
% of GDP
2002 IGR
2007 IGR
2010 IGR
2015 IGR
2021 IGR

4. Chart 3: Central Government – composition of
spending over time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Health Payments to
individuals
(excl. Age
Pension)
Age and
Service
pensions
Defence Education Aged care NDIS Infrastructure Interest
payments
Other
payments
(excl NDIS
state and
GST)
% of GDP
% of GDP
2021-22
2060-61

5. Chart 4: Central Government - Health spending
projections across intergenerational reports
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31 2040-41 2050-51 2060-61
% of GDP
% of GDP
2002 IGR
2007 IGR
2010 IGR
2015 IGR
2021 IGR

6. Chart 5: Central Government – composition of tax
receipts
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900-01 1920-21 1940-41 1960-61 1980-81 2000-01 2020-21 2040-41 2060-61
% of GDP
% of GDP
Income tax
Personal
income tax
Company and
other income
taxes
Sales taxes
excl. GST
GST
Other indirect taxes
Tax-to-GDP averages 23.9 per cent

7. Chart 6: Central Government - Average PIT rates
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31 2035-36
%
%
Average personal
income tax rate
Tax receipts
(per cent of GDP)
Tax-to-GDP cap
Tax cuts
Tax cuts
Tax cuts

8. Will health spending and revenues be
sustainable in the long-term?
Matt Crooke
Assistant Secretary
Commonwealth-State Relations Branch
Australian Treasury