Presentation given by Bernard Munos at the Open Source Pharma Conference at Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center, July 2014. Bernard Munos Bio: http://www.opensourcepharma.net/participants/bernard-munos Conference Agenda (see Day 1, Session 1): http://www.opensourcepharma.net/agenda.html

1. What’s the Problem with Drug R&D?
Bellagio, Italy, July 15-18, 2014
#opensourcepharma

2. What is the problem?
• Too little innovation
• Too much mediocre innovation
• Unaffordable innovation
• Rests on non-predictive science
 Erratic
 Driven by black swans
 High-risk
 High prices
 No Moore’s Law… only Eroom’s Law!
InnoThink

3. Driven by unattractive “attractors”
High risk
High return
High R&D
investment
Industry concentration Industry fragmentation
Low risk
Low return
Low R&D
investment
InnoThink

4. What else?
• Inadequate leadership for much of past decade
 Changing in companies with leaders willing and able to deal with
the challenge (e.g., jnj, gsk, sny, nvs, roche, bmy, bay, azn)
• Underperforming research model
• ½ Big Pharma = High-priced generic industry
• Ambivalent about change
• Change difficult… outcomes uncertain… but those
that do not reform, will be outperformed
InnoThink

5. Alternatives:
How can we outperform the status quo?
InnoThink
• Open-source drug R&D (e.g., OSDD, OSM)
• Crowdsourcing (e.g., Innocentive)
• Drug repurposing (e.g., NIH, disease foundations, “biotechs”)
• Public-private partnerships (e.g., DNDi, MMV)
• Networked innovation (e.g, ANDI/WHO; J&J)
• Virtual companies (many “biotechs”; GSK)
• Forced disruption (DARPA)
• Precompetitive collaboration (Consortia-Pedia)
• Biological modeling (Sage, Dassault)

6. More thoughts…
InnoThink
• Let’s increase the supply of drugs… not manage the scarcity
• We are on the cusp of a hyper-innovation age… but it will involve
mostly different players
• Some industries cannot be reformed… they can only be disrupted…
and disruption always comes from the outside
• Innovation should be plentiful… much of the information is free…
tools are widely available… craft is non longer proprietary
• Crowdfunding and microfinancing will meet a growing share of drug
discovery financing needs
• IP is only a problem because there is too little of it that’s any good…
scarcity drives up value

7. Last thoughts…
• We are witnessing 3 transformations at once
 The transformation of biology
 The transformation of research tools and methods
 The transformation of medicine
• All three are driven by data… that spells change
• The expertise in data analysis does not reside in pharma
• Smart phones changed the world in < 7 years… We can
change pharma yet in this decade
InnoThink

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