Presentation by Dr. Johanna Cludius at the "First Moroccan-German Energy Day", 28 September 2017, Rabat

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Long-term macroeconomic effects of
the German Energy Transition
Dr. Johanna Cludius
Rabat, 28 September 2017 First Moroccan-German Energy Day

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Why a long-term energy vision?
An economic perspective
● Germany has pledged to move away from fossil fuels and reduce
emssions in the long term
‒ Electricity sector important, but also building and transport sectors
‒ Key roles for renewables and energy efficiency
‒ Long-lived capital stocks in key sectors  measures need to be
implemented within one modernization cycle only
 First mover advantages: Innovation, business opportunities, avoiding lock-
in effects
 Import independency, reduce exposure to fuel price uncertainties, health
and environmental benefits
 Costs of a fossil-based electricity system in the long-term likely similar or
higher than in a renewables-based system (Agora Energiewende / Oeko-
Institut, 2017)
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017

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Why a long-term energy vision?
Costs of a renewable vs. fossil electricity system
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017
Source: Agora Energiewende / Oeko-Institut (2017)

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Estimating macro-economic effects
What to consider?
● Which sectors and actors are important?
‒ Key sectors: Electricity, building and transport (as well as agriculture and forestry)
‒ Key actors: Industry, services, private households
● Important effects
‒ GDP and value added
‒ Employment
‒ Structural changes
‒ Welfare
‒ International trade
● Key input parameters: Investments, energy prices and expenditures, changes in
imports and government funding / financing
● Costs and benefits may occur at different points in time and have to be considered in
a holistic view
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017

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Climate Protection Scenario analysis for Germany
● Modelling the German reduction targets
‒ At least 80% decrease in GHG emissions by 2050 (up to 95%)
‒ Interim and sectoral targets on renewable penetration and energy
efficiency
● Main results on GDP, employment and structural shifts
‒ GDP in 2050 4.4% higher than in reference case
‒ Creation of 500,000 domestic jobs by 2050 compared to reference
‒ Most sectors benefit, especially building, real estate and consulting,
energy and transport sectors
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017

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Climate Protection Scenario analysis for Germany
GDP and employment
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2020 2030 2040 2050
Veränderungenin%
BIP
Beschäftigung
Source: Oeko-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI (2015)
GDP
Employment
%change

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Climate Protection Scenario analysis for Germany
Sectoral employment impacts
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
2020 2030 2040 2050
VeränderungBeschäftigungin%
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Handel
Bau Immobilien und Beratung
Staatliche DL Verkehr
Energie Sonstige
Gesamtbeschäftigung
Source: Oeko-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI (2015)
Manufacturing
Building
Governmental services
Energy
Overall effect
Trade
Real estate and consulting
Transport
Others
%change

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Factors contributing to a successful Energy Transition
in Germany
● Implementation of the Energy Transition
‒ Renewable electricity: Investor certainty through long-term strategy, feed-
in tariff and priority feed-in (at least at beginning)
‒ Multitude of policies to support energy efficiency, e.g. National Strategy on
Energy Efficiency bringing about further investment
● Market conditions
‒ Liberalised electricity market allowing for efficient market outcomes and
broad business participation; market access and integration of renewables
into market
● Outcomes
‒ Many new actors and/or business opportunities for established actors
‒ Broad participation, e.g. owners of renewable electricity installations in
2012: 35% private households, 11% farmers and 14% small business
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017

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Further action needed to close the gap to 2050
reduction target
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017
Source: Oeko-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI (2016)

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Outlook for the German Energy Transition
● Further action needed to reach 2050 targets
‒ Climate Action Plan (2016) sets out milestones and strategies for all sectors
addressing individual challenges; Further programmes of measures to follow
● Not only need to get into renewables, but out of fossils
‒ Support policies to facilitate transition in regions / for actors affected
● Broad-based support in society important for the structural changes necessary
‒ Safeguard diversity of actors participating in Energy Transition
‒ Additional policies and measures targeted at vulnerable groups
‒ Ensure fair distribution of costs and benefits
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017
Key role for energy efficiency in increasing benefits, reducing
costs of transition and supporting vulnerable groups

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Thank you for your attention!
Do you have any questions? ?

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Research reports and publications cited
Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017
Agora Energiewende / Oeko-Institut (2017) Erneuerbare vs. fossile
Stromsysteme: ein Kostenvergleich. Stromwelten 2050 – Analyse von
Erneuerbaren, kohle- und gasbasierten Elektrizitätssystemen.
Oeko-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI (2016) Climate Protection Scenario 2050 -
Summary of second final report. Study conducted on behalf of the German
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and
Nuclear Safety.
Oeko-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI (2015) Klimaschutzszenario 2050 - 2.
Endbericht. Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Umwelt,
Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit.

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Les effets macro-économiques à long-terme de la transition | Dr. Johanna Cludius |
Première Journée Maroco-Allemande de l’Énergie | Rabat | 28/09/2017
Contact details
Dr. Johanna Cludius
Researcher, Energy & Climate Division
Oeko-Institut
Schicklerstr. 5-7
10179 Berlin
Germany
Telefon: +49 30 40 50 85 375
E-Mail: j.cludius@oeko.de