Enviar búsqueda
Cargar
LLKD13 thriving under uncertainty
•
6 recomendaciones
•
6,030 vistas
Okaloa
Seguir
Denunciar
Compartir
Denunciar
Compartir
1 de 41
Descargar ahora
Descargar para leer sin conexión
Recomendados
Resilient change, Lean Kanban Netherlands Oct2012
Resilient change, Lean Kanban Netherlands Oct2012
Okaloa
Launching sustainability programs
Launching sustainability programs
Bruce Starcher
Rubin agile 2012_strategies_for_porfolio_management.pdf
Rubin agile 2012_strategies_for_porfolio_management.pdf
drewz lin
NESHEP Planet Positive Presentation
NESHEP Planet Positive Presentation
Bianca Kemp
2degrees Viewpoint Beyond Lean
2degrees Viewpoint Beyond Lean
Simon2degrees
Estimating the principal of Technical Debt - Dr. Bill Curtis - WTD '12
Estimating the principal of Technical Debt - Dr. Bill Curtis - WTD '12
OnTechnicalDebt
Three Confluence Deployments That Will Blow You Away
Three Confluence Deployments That Will Blow You Away
Atlassian
Win Friends and Influence People... with DSLs
Win Friends and Influence People... with DSLs
Vladimir Bacvanski, PhD
Recomendados
Resilient change, Lean Kanban Netherlands Oct2012
Resilient change, Lean Kanban Netherlands Oct2012
Okaloa
Launching sustainability programs
Launching sustainability programs
Bruce Starcher
Rubin agile 2012_strategies_for_porfolio_management.pdf
Rubin agile 2012_strategies_for_porfolio_management.pdf
drewz lin
NESHEP Planet Positive Presentation
NESHEP Planet Positive Presentation
Bianca Kemp
2degrees Viewpoint Beyond Lean
2degrees Viewpoint Beyond Lean
Simon2degrees
Estimating the principal of Technical Debt - Dr. Bill Curtis - WTD '12
Estimating the principal of Technical Debt - Dr. Bill Curtis - WTD '12
OnTechnicalDebt
Three Confluence Deployments That Will Blow You Away
Three Confluence Deployments That Will Blow You Away
Atlassian
Win Friends and Influence People... with DSLs
Win Friends and Influence People... with DSLs
Vladimir Bacvanski, PhD
Oka dicsovery kanban_llkd14
Oka dicsovery kanban_llkd14
Okaloa
LKCE16 -Upstream & Customer Kanban by Patrick Steyaert
LKCE16 -Upstream & Customer Kanban by Patrick Steyaert
Lean Kanban Central Europe
Discovery Kanban @ LKSE15
Discovery Kanban @ LKSE15
Okaloa
Key Note - Devlin 2013 - No crystal ball gazing - The Pragmatism of The Kanba...
Key Note - Devlin 2013 - No crystal ball gazing - The Pragmatism of The Kanba...
David Anderson
Key Note - Stop Starting, Start Finishing 2013 - Aligning Creative Work with ...
Key Note - Stop Starting, Start Finishing 2013 - Aligning Creative Work with ...
David Anderson
Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban
Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban
David Anderson
"Fitness for Purpose" - Resilience & Agility in Modern Business
"Fitness for Purpose" - Resilience & Agility in Modern Business
David Anderson
Patrick Steyart, Discovery Kanban - канбан открытий
Patrick Steyart, Discovery Kanban - канбан открытий
ScrumTrek
Visual Workflow Overview
Visual Workflow Overview
Salesforce Developers
40 Agile Methods in 40 Minutes
40 Agile Methods in 40 Minutes
Craig Smith
Discovery Kanban - Lean Kanban UK 2014
Discovery Kanban - Lean Kanban UK 2014
Okaloa
Enterprise Services Planning: Defining Key Performance Indicators
Enterprise Services Planning: Defining Key Performance Indicators
David Anderson
LAScot16 - Kanban Systems for Change
LAScot16 - Kanban Systems for Change
Okaloa
Make the invisible visible - Visual management in agile product development
Make the invisible visible - Visual management in agile product development
Håkan Forss
Visual Management: Leading With What You Can See
Visual Management: Leading With What You Can See
Craig Smith
Estimation – a waste of time master 2013 sdc gothenburg w hp rules
Estimation – a waste of time master 2013 sdc gothenburg w hp rules
tom gilb
How using visibility supports effective decision making
How using visibility supports effective decision making
Thoughtworks
Why Projects Fail: Obstacles and Solutions
Why Projects Fail: Obstacles and Solutions
Michael Krigsman
Upselling and upgrading webinar presentation
Upselling and upgrading webinar presentation
Stuart Selbst Consulting
BCI Summit Sydney 2010
BCI Summit Sydney 2010
Ken Simpson
Assessing Product Feasibility - Case Study
Assessing Product Feasibility - Case Study
Product Realization Group
APM Benefits Summit 2017 - Pessimists, realists, and liars: why benefits fore...
APM Benefits Summit 2017 - Pessimists, realists, and liars: why benefits fore...
Association for Project Management
Más contenido relacionado
Destacado
Oka dicsovery kanban_llkd14
Oka dicsovery kanban_llkd14
Okaloa
LKCE16 -Upstream & Customer Kanban by Patrick Steyaert
LKCE16 -Upstream & Customer Kanban by Patrick Steyaert
Lean Kanban Central Europe
Discovery Kanban @ LKSE15
Discovery Kanban @ LKSE15
Okaloa
Key Note - Devlin 2013 - No crystal ball gazing - The Pragmatism of The Kanba...
Key Note - Devlin 2013 - No crystal ball gazing - The Pragmatism of The Kanba...
David Anderson
Key Note - Stop Starting, Start Finishing 2013 - Aligning Creative Work with ...
Key Note - Stop Starting, Start Finishing 2013 - Aligning Creative Work with ...
David Anderson
Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban
Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban
David Anderson
"Fitness for Purpose" - Resilience & Agility in Modern Business
"Fitness for Purpose" - Resilience & Agility in Modern Business
David Anderson
Patrick Steyart, Discovery Kanban - канбан открытий
Patrick Steyart, Discovery Kanban - канбан открытий
ScrumTrek
Visual Workflow Overview
Visual Workflow Overview
Salesforce Developers
40 Agile Methods in 40 Minutes
40 Agile Methods in 40 Minutes
Craig Smith
Discovery Kanban - Lean Kanban UK 2014
Discovery Kanban - Lean Kanban UK 2014
Okaloa
Enterprise Services Planning: Defining Key Performance Indicators
Enterprise Services Planning: Defining Key Performance Indicators
David Anderson
LAScot16 - Kanban Systems for Change
LAScot16 - Kanban Systems for Change
Okaloa
Make the invisible visible - Visual management in agile product development
Make the invisible visible - Visual management in agile product development
Håkan Forss
Visual Management: Leading With What You Can See
Visual Management: Leading With What You Can See
Craig Smith
Destacado
(15)
Oka dicsovery kanban_llkd14
Oka dicsovery kanban_llkd14
LKCE16 -Upstream & Customer Kanban by Patrick Steyaert
LKCE16 -Upstream & Customer Kanban by Patrick Steyaert
Discovery Kanban @ LKSE15
Discovery Kanban @ LKSE15
Key Note - Devlin 2013 - No crystal ball gazing - The Pragmatism of The Kanba...
Key Note - Devlin 2013 - No crystal ball gazing - The Pragmatism of The Kanba...
Key Note - Stop Starting, Start Finishing 2013 - Aligning Creative Work with ...
Key Note - Stop Starting, Start Finishing 2013 - Aligning Creative Work with ...
Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban
Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban
"Fitness for Purpose" - Resilience & Agility in Modern Business
"Fitness for Purpose" - Resilience & Agility in Modern Business
Patrick Steyart, Discovery Kanban - канбан открытий
Patrick Steyart, Discovery Kanban - канбан открытий
Visual Workflow Overview
Visual Workflow Overview
40 Agile Methods in 40 Minutes
40 Agile Methods in 40 Minutes
Discovery Kanban - Lean Kanban UK 2014
Discovery Kanban - Lean Kanban UK 2014
Enterprise Services Planning: Defining Key Performance Indicators
Enterprise Services Planning: Defining Key Performance Indicators
LAScot16 - Kanban Systems for Change
LAScot16 - Kanban Systems for Change
Make the invisible visible - Visual management in agile product development
Make the invisible visible - Visual management in agile product development
Visual Management: Leading With What You Can See
Visual Management: Leading With What You Can See
Similar a LLKD13 thriving under uncertainty
Estimation – a waste of time master 2013 sdc gothenburg w hp rules
Estimation – a waste of time master 2013 sdc gothenburg w hp rules
tom gilb
How using visibility supports effective decision making
How using visibility supports effective decision making
Thoughtworks
Why Projects Fail: Obstacles and Solutions
Why Projects Fail: Obstacles and Solutions
Michael Krigsman
Upselling and upgrading webinar presentation
Upselling and upgrading webinar presentation
Stuart Selbst Consulting
BCI Summit Sydney 2010
BCI Summit Sydney 2010
Ken Simpson
Assessing Product Feasibility - Case Study
Assessing Product Feasibility - Case Study
Product Realization Group
APM Benefits Summit 2017 - Pessimists, realists, and liars: why benefits fore...
APM Benefits Summit 2017 - Pessimists, realists, and liars: why benefits fore...
Association for Project Management
Steve Barsh Of Dream It Ventures On De Risking For Wharton Entrepreneurship C...
Steve Barsh Of Dream It Ventures On De Risking For Wharton Entrepreneurship C...
Steve Barsh
F:\The Zest Machine
F:\The Zest Machine
sun0712
Designing Change - Triggering Cultural Metamorphisis
Designing Change - Triggering Cultural Metamorphisis
Michelle Caldwell, PSM, SSGB
Similar a LLKD13 thriving under uncertainty
(10)
Estimation – a waste of time master 2013 sdc gothenburg w hp rules
Estimation – a waste of time master 2013 sdc gothenburg w hp rules
How using visibility supports effective decision making
How using visibility supports effective decision making
Why Projects Fail: Obstacles and Solutions
Why Projects Fail: Obstacles and Solutions
Upselling and upgrading webinar presentation
Upselling and upgrading webinar presentation
BCI Summit Sydney 2010
BCI Summit Sydney 2010
Assessing Product Feasibility - Case Study
Assessing Product Feasibility - Case Study
APM Benefits Summit 2017 - Pessimists, realists, and liars: why benefits fore...
APM Benefits Summit 2017 - Pessimists, realists, and liars: why benefits fore...
Steve Barsh Of Dream It Ventures On De Risking For Wharton Entrepreneurship C...
Steve Barsh Of Dream It Ventures On De Risking For Wharton Entrepreneurship C...
F:\The Zest Machine
F:\The Zest Machine
Designing Change - Triggering Cultural Metamorphisis
Designing Change - Triggering Cultural Metamorphisis
LLKD13 thriving under uncertainty
1.
Thriving under
uncertainty with Discovery Kanban London Lean Kanban Day March 2013 patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @PatrickSteyaert © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
2.
Options and variation
2 Option 1 Effort = 300MD Most likely delivery = May 31 Variation = ±10 days Deadline = May 15 Option 2 Effort = 300MD Most likely delivery = May 31 Variation = ±20 days © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
3.
Thriving under uncertainty
3 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) § variation and § absorb variation and § thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
4.
4 Pains and gains
in the history of projects Absorbing variation - Classes of Service Thriving on variation - Options Kanban variations © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
5.
A calamitous history
of 5 projects* Project Cost overrun Project Actual traffic Channel tunnel 80% as percentage UK-FR of forecast Øresund 70% Channel tunnel 18% access link, DE UK-FR Great belt link, 54% Miami metro, 15% DE USA Øresund coast- 26% Denver 55% to-coast International Airport, USA Conclusion: don’t trust Conclusion: don’t trust cost estimates usage forecasts *Source: Megaprojects and risk, an anatomy of ambition, Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, 2003 © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
6.
IT projects
6 ps of issues that cause most project failures. IT projects >$15 million1 2 45% ssues Benefits shortfall –56% Delivering large-scale IT projects on time, on budget, and on value, Michael Bloch, Sven Blumberg, and Jürgen Laartz 3 Skill issuesof 17 percent IT projects go so bad that they can 4 Execution issues threaten the very existence of the company (cost overruns of +200% and schedule slippage of nearly 70%) Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent, Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Aug 2011. 6 © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
7.
Delusions and deception
§ Imperfect forecasting techniques and inadequate data 7 § Planning fallacy & optimism bias § Strategic misrepresentation and asymmetric information © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
8.
How projects are
“sold” 8 Gains/Losses f(X) Gain Convexity Unknown X Pain Gain more than pain © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
9.
9 © Patrick Steyaert,
2013 Thriving under uncertainty
10.
How projects turn
out in practice 10 Gains/Losses f(X) Gain Unknown X Pain Concavity Pain more than gain © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
11.
11 Variation and disruption §
Order of magnitude (size) § Political intervention § Customer § Interrupt work § Team § Technical problems § Policies § Changing requirements § Technology § Resources not available § Environment § Environmental problem(s) § … § … © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
12.
Amplification – pain
12 Changes Prioritization Requirements Product Work Failure load / Rework © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
13.
13 Irreversibility & Lock-in
© Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
14.
Complex projects
14 How they are planned How they turn out Convexity Concavity © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
15.
Absorbing variation
15 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) § variation and § absorb variation and § thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
16.
Kanban systems –
Less pain 16 Variable capability Variable demand Capability Bottlenecks Uncertainty Demand Loopbacks Kanban © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Accredited Kanban Training
17.
Cost of delay
17 EXPEDITE Cost/Value FIXED DATE STANDARD INTANGIBLE x time © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
18.
Classes of service
- Minimize Cost 18 of delay while retaining flexibility Cost of delay Urgent Respond Policy § critical and immediate EXPEDITE § will be pulled immediately cost of delay by a qualified resource § cost of delay goes up FIXED DATE § will be pulled based on risk assessment Cost of delay significantly after Flexibility deadline (delivering on time) § cost of delay is shallow STANDARD § will use first in, first out but accelerates before (FIFO) queuing approach to leveling out prioritize pull § cost of delay may be INTANGIBLE § will be pulled through the significant but is not system in an ad hoc incurred until much fashion later Important Anticipate © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
19.
Capacity allocation across
classes of 19 service EXPEDITE Expedite +1 = +5% Cost/Value Fixed date 4 = 20% FIXED DATE Standard 8 = 50% Intangib le 6 = 30% STANDARD INTANGIBLE x time © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
20.
Thriving under uncertainty
20 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) § variation and § absorb variation and § thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
21.
Amplification of gains
21 Opportunities Resources Requirements Product Work User feedback/ Revenue © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
22.
Opportunity for learning
22 Risk/Options Cost/Value Probes Enablers Table stakes Exceptionals Is there a Can we build What is Protect & exploit need? it? essential? existing value time © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
23.
Never commit early
(unless you 23 know why) Potential option Validate PROBE Potential option Validate ENABLERS Potential Validate option TABLE STAKES Potential option EXCEPTIONAL © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
24.
Exercising options
24 Potential Exercised Option Option Option © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
25.
25 Options expire
§ Expedite – critical and immediate cost of delay è will be pulled immediately by a qualified resource § Fixed date – cost of delay goes up significantly after deadline è will be pulled based on risk assessment (delivering on time) § Standard – cost of delay is shallow but accelerates before leveling out è will use first in, first out (FIFO) queuing approach to prioritize pull § Intangible – cost of delay may be significant but is not incurred until much later; important but not urgent è will be pulled through the system in an ad hoc fashion © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
26.
Options have value
26 Gains/Losses f(X) Gain Convexity Unknown X Pain Gain more than pain © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
27.
Options - Maximize
learning, 27 minimize cost of failure Option Exploration § Fragmented functionality, PROBE § Explore customers Lo-Fi implementation and needs Learning opportunity § Minimally coherent end- ENABLERS § Explore feasibility to-end functionality and critical quality Cost of failure showing critical quality § End-to-end functionality TABLE STAKES § Explore what is with standard quality essential for exploitation § Broad and detailed EXCEPTIONAL § Protect & exploit functionality, Hi-Fi existing value implementation Commitment Exploitation © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
28.
Exploration versus exploitation
28 Potential option Validate PROBE Exploitation Potential option Validate ENABLERS Potential Exploration option Validate TABLE STAKES Potential option EXCEPTIONAL © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
29.
29
Real options* An option is the right to do something but not the obligation § Options have value § Options expire § Never commit early (unless you know why) *Ref: Chris Matts & Olav Maassen © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
30.
The knowledge discovery
process 30 Narrative, fragmented, Working product Decision to possibly (i.e. probe, dampen or conflicting enabler,…) amplify Potential Exercise Validate Abandoned Option option option option / Continue Coherent, Feedback shared (e.g. user concept feedback) Discovery front-end Development Discovery back-end Forming hypotheses Validating hypotheses © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
31.
Discovery Kanban Board
31 WIP limits express exploration – exploitation balance Exploration Exploitation Legend Expedite Potential Option Exercise Validate Abandon / option option option Continue Fixed date 3/3/9/4 1/1/5/2 1/1/4/2 Probe Standard probe probe 28/3 Intangib Enabler le enabler Intangible Fixed date probe probe F Table Demo for tradeshow table R&D L stakes on 28/3 stakes O W Exceptional Expedite table stakes Overdue regulatory Standard enabler development Framework development FLOW © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
32.
Kanban variations
32 Delivery Kanban Discovery Kanban 1. Visualize – work 1. Visualize – options 2. Limit work in progress 2. Minimal options / maximum un- validated assumptions 3. Manage Flow – flow of work 3. Manage Flow – flow of customer/ 4. Make Process Policies Explicit – user acquisition work policies (e.g. in terms of cost of delay) 4. Make Process Policies Explicit – option policies (e.g. in terms of 5. Implement Feedback Loops – at cost of failure) workflow, inter-workflow and organizational levels 5. Implement Feedback Loops – customer feedback loops 6. Improve Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally (using models/ 6. Improve Collaboratively, Evolve scientific method) Experimentally (using models/ scientific method) © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
33.
Not just for
start-ups § Product development (mature product) 33 § Business-IT programmes § Business transformation § Lean agile coaching © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
34.
Thriving under uncertainty
34 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile) § variation and § absorb variation and § thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
35.
Inspiration
35 Knowledge discovery process: http://alistair.cockburn.us/ The+Design+as+Knowledge +Acquisition+Movement © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
36.
Thank You
patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @PatrickSteyaert © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
37.
Classifying features
37 Epic Epic Epic Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
38.
Classifying features -
probes 38 Epic Epic Epic Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
39.
Classifying features -
enablers 39 Epic Epic Epic Enablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
40.
Classifying features –
table stakes 40 Epic Epic Epic Enablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Table stakes Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
41.
Classifying features –
exceptionals 41 Epic Epic Epic Enablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Table stakes Story Story Story Story Story Story Exceptionals Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
Descargar ahora