Q1 2019: Big Picture Outlook

Confidential. © Copyright Retail Ready Foods Inc. All Rights Reserved, 2018.
Not for distribution. 1
Q1 BIG PICTURE
OUTLOOK
SPECIAL REPORT:
THE GLOBALSTATE OFAFRICAN SWINE FEVER
SPECIAL GUEST SPEAKER:
Confidential. © Copyright J.S. Ferraro & Co. and Retail Ready Foods Inc. All Rights Reserved, 2019. Not for distribution.
HOSTED BY:
Retail Ready Foods Inc. & J.S. Ferraro & Company
DATE: January 23, 2019
Dr. Rob Murphy, BS, MS, PhD Agri
Economics
Executive Vice President, Research &
Analysis
J.S. Ferraro & Company
Kevin Grier
Market Analyst
Kevin Grier Market Analysis &
Consulting
Brett Stuart
President
Global AgriTrends
HOSTS:

2 |
Linked by a common thread, integral within a protein based supply chain.
A provider of innovative risk
management solutions, specializing
in meat & livestock.
Retail Ready is your “Go-To” protein
merchandising & industry expert.
Protein expertise at your fingertips.
An integrated sustainable food brand
committed to creating the best-tasting
fresh protein experience.

3 |
Dr. Rob Murphy
Dr. Rob Murphy, BS, MS, PhD Agri Economics
Executive Vice President, Research and Analysis
www.jsferraro.com
An agricultural economist and business leader with over 27 years in the industry, Dr. Rob
Murphy has a wealth of experience in the North American meat and livestock industries
studying, analyzing and predicting market movements. His expertise spans commodity
analysis, econometric modelling, forecasting, futures markets, hedging, and risk
management.
Rob holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural and Applied Economics from Virginia Tech and has
developed his market expertise over the past three decades by serving as an economist
with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Sparks Companies and Informa Economics.
At Informa, Rob held two senior leadership roles (Senior VP of Livestock, Meat, Dairy and
Poultry group and Vice President) over 13 years. He focused on the development of risk
management programs and directed the division’s work in commodity analysis in the
protein sector. He has spoken internationally on many topics, including agri supply chain-
development and international protein demand.
Currently, Rob is the Executive Vice President, Research and Analysis at J.S. Ferraro &
Co. leading the team in commodity analysis, financial modelling, and the development of
trading and risk management strategies.

Kevin Grier
Kevin Grier
Market Analyst
Kevin Grier Market Analysis & Consulting
www.kevingrier.com
Kevin Grier is a noted Canadian Agriculture & Food Market Analyst providing economic and
market outlook for livestock, meat and grocery industries over the last 20+ years. His critical
market insight and analysis helps his clients - from government and producer groups to
small to large businesses - drive profitable bottom line decisions.
Kevin is a regular contributor and respected expert across media platforms throughout North
America - Global News, CTV, National Post, Globe & Mail, National Hog Farmer and
Grocery Business. Kevin speaks with clarity on a range of topics including market analysis,
economic impacts, consumer trends and commodity analysis. He provides regular
commentaries on the market and is a national and international keynote speaker known for
his approachable yet pragmatic style.
His breadth of knowledge was developed over 18 years at the George Morris Centre, a
leader in economic research in the agriculture and food industry. Prior to that Kevin was a
manager with the Ontario Farm Products Marketing Commission, the supervisory body of
the provincially regulated marketing boards. Currently, Kevin is managing director of Kevin
Grier Market Analysis and Consulting, a company specializing in livestock, meat, poultry
and grocery industry market insight and analysis working across a breadth of organizations
internationally.
4 |Confidential. © Copyright J.S. Ferraro & Co. and Retail Ready Foods Inc. All Rights Reserved, 2019. Not for distribution.

Brett Stuart
Brett Stuart
President
Global AgriTrends
www.globalagritrends.com
Brett Stuart is one of the founding partners of Global AgriTrends. He was formerly employed
by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) as their lead economist. In this capacity he
conducted numerous research and analysis projects in the global meat trade area as well
as advising U.S. trade officials on international meat access issues. As part of these
responsibilities Brett conducted on-the-ground meat industry research around the globe.
Prior to his work with the federation, Brett was the Assistant Manager of Marketing for
AgReserves, Inc, and was heavily involved with a variety of livestock marketing strategies.
Brett’s specific international market research includes:
• Co-authored, “The vital role of science in global policy decision-making: an analysis of
past, current, and forecasted trends and issues in global red meat trade and policy”.
International Congress of Meat Science and Technology Journal, 2005.
• Market analysis and recommended strategies for U.S. meats in the Japan, S. Korea,
Taiwan, China, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Australia, South Africa, Tunisia, and
Morocco.
• Business planning and research for exporting U.S. products to Europe.
• Research and recommendations for revisions to the Japan gate price system for pork.
• Joint planning and cooperation with Mexican meat producers to build meat consumption
in Mexico.

1. SPECIAL REPORT
• Global State Of African Swine Fever (ASF)
2. NORTH AMERICAN MARKET OUTLOOK & AVAILABILITY
• Hogs & Pork
• Cattle & Beef
• Chickens & Poultry
4. Q&A
6 |
DISCUSSION OUTLINE:

7 |
ASF UPDATE
Global State Of African Swine Fever (ASF)
SPECIAL REPORT:

ASF in China: 2019

Why ASF is a BIG DEAL
• Half of the world’s pigs
• 20% of global protein
(Chinese pork)
• Shortages will drive
global pork (and
poultry and beef)
markets higher
• The virus is out of
control

Facts on ASF
• The most feared hog disease globally; no vaccine,
high mortality
• Carried by wild boars, warthogs, and bush hogs;
also ticks, and food (pork) waste
• The virus is highly-transmissible
• BUT not highly contagious
• No human health risk

Liaoning 15
Anhui 10
Jiangxi 1
Jiangsu 2
Henan 2
Bordering provinces = 16% of herd
Heilongjiang 6Inner Mongolia 5
ASF provinces = 82% of herd
Jilin 4
Tianjin 2
Yunnan 4
Hunan 7
Guizhou 3
Shanxi 4
Hubei 4
Zhejiang 2
Fujian 1
Sichuan 4
Shaanxi 3 Beijing 4
Guangdong 1
China ASF

ASF: Current Situation
Massive under-reporting
• >90% not reported?
• Inadequate compensation (1,200 rmb/hd)
• Government vets not admitting outbreaks
• Not enough $ to reimburse, embarrassment
• Resource constraints: Entire herd must be secured, quarantined, culled, facility
disinfected
• Disposal issues: Culled and diseased hogs must be disposed

China ASF – What Now?
1. Watch prices
• China live hog
• China wholesale pork, beef, poultry
• China food inflation
• EU hogs
2. Watch customs data
• Chine imports
• Everyone else’s exports (more timely)

Source: JCI, MARA, AgriTrends

Source: JCI

17 |
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture

Bottom Line: What We Know
• Government efforts have been ineffective
• The virus has been found in compound feed
• The government has not reported all outbreaks
• Not all farms with disease loss and culling are receiving
government compensation
• Prices remain weak
• Feed demand has fallen sharply

China ASF – What we do not know
• Under-reporting? Is it 90% or 10%?
• How aggressive is liquidation occurring
• How many hogs have been lost/culled?
• Will the 50% retaliation tariffs on U.S. pork be dropped
(March 1 is a key negotiation deadline)?
• How long will liquidation continue?
• Consumer demand declining?

China ASF - What the Chinese Government has said:
• That government will buy pork for strategic reserves
• Farmers should begin expanding production
• Chinese hog prices expected to begin rising in the second half of 2019.
• The war on ASF would be “long-term and protracted” and that supplies were
currently sufficient (as manifest by China’s live hog prices). He expected no
major price volatility ahead of Chinese New Year (Feb. 5).
• China’s hog inventories were down -5% from a year ago in December with
sow inventories down -8%.
• Live hog prices have dropped for four consecutive weeks and “consumer
demand is weakening”
• Mr Tang Ke, the Director of Market and Information, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

China ASF – What we think:
• Further spreading is inevitable: inadequate compensation; financial incentive remains to sell all
hogs if the disease is found, perpetuating the spread
• Massive underreporting
• Liquidation is likely strong and has been for some time.
• Weak prices, falling feed prices (and demand), and cash flow issues all point the same direction. The
government reported sow liquidation of 8% during 2018. ASF fears are overpowering optimism around
higher prices in the future.
• Demand is lower.
• A slowing economy, or consumer fears of ASF
• weaker demand will prolong the impending “pork gap”.
• Prices will surge higher in the future.
• When? Without inventory, slaughter, or pork production data this is anyone’s guess. We have stated for
some time that mid-2019 may be a good target. A Chinese analyst suggested possibly by May. China’s
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) suggested 2H 2019 in a statement made this week.

Bottom Line: China ASF
• Extreme caution is warranted in global protein sectors with exposure to Asian
pork
• Prices higher/lower? Take your pick (LT – higher)
• Beef and poultry markets will be affected as well
• This virus will kill millions of pigs in China
• Vaccine is years away
• But 7 million pigs = 1% of supply (and consumption)
• Does China “buy U.S.”?
• NO end in sight…
• Recent statements by Chinese government confirm their fears: future supply
issues

ASF: Beyond China
• Cases in S. Korea, Vietnam, within 6 months?
• Entirely possible
• ASF will shift global pork/protein markets for years
• A global scramble for “clean” pork
• Potential for a two-tiered global pork market
• ASF in the EU, U.S., Canada, Brazil?

ASF in Europe
• Belgium: 132 outbreaks, 237 dead wild boars
• Cases have now spread beyond “core zone” into the “buffer zone”

26 |
FORECASTS
& WATCHLIST
Global State Of African Swine Fever (ASF)
SPECIAL REPORT:

27 |
Source: USDA/ERS, AgriTrends forecasts

Source: USDA/ERS, AgriTrends forecasts

Summary
• China ASF
• Our fears are being confirmed
• A pork supply gap will build? When?
• Does China buy US pork? Are pork tariffs negotiated away?
• EU ASF
• Cases spreading in Belgium, France likely the next nation to fall
• Watch for Germany, Spain; it may take time but is statistically
inevitable
• ASF in North, South America?
• No nation is safe

Confidential. © Copyright J.S. Ferraro & Co. and Retail Ready Foods Inc. All Rights Reserved, 2019. Not for distribution.30 |
HOGS &
PORK
NORTH AMERICAN MARKET OUTLOOK:

• The US breeding herd has stabilized over
the past three quarters, but is up about 3%
year-over-year recently.
• There has been a solid uptrend in the BH
since the PEDv epidemic in 2013-14
• Note the contraction during the deep
recession of 2008-09
• There is a long-term trend toward better
productivity in the US herd.
• This allows pork production to increase even
when the breeding herd does not expand.
• The US lags behind other countries in PPL,
so there is plenty of room for growth.

1220
2220
3220
4220
5220
6220
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TotalPorkExports(millbs)
Total Pork Exports
History
Forecast
+5.6%
-3.0%
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
MillionPounds US CommercialPork Production by Quarter
2017 2018 2019 Forecast
+1.2%
+2.7%
+6.6%
+7.0%
• JSF looks for modest growth in pork production
during the first half of 2018.
• Q3 & Q4 hold the potential for a 5-7% increase in
production (Yikes!).
• A new packing plant will be operational in March,
which will help boost production.
fggg
• The global economy is slowing and that
creates the potential for pork exports to
be lower in 2019.
• ASF in China is the wildcard. If China
is forced to import large quantities of
pork, US exports could be up double
digits.

0.905
0.955
1.005
1.055
1.105
1.155
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
DICutout(pct)
JSF Demand Index, Pork Cutout
History
Forecast
-3.2%
+2.0%
fggg
• Despite a strong US economy in 2018, Pork
demand was down from 2017.
• A weaker US economy in 2019 could
actually benefit pork demand as consumers
trade down from more expensive beef.
• The “April Dip” is not expected to develop this
year like it did in the previous two years.
• Big production in the second half of 2019 is
expected to weigh on pork prices, resulting in
cutout values well below 2017 & 2018

fggg
• The front end of the futures curve is expecting
spring softness that we think will not
materialize this year.
• However, the summer and fall contracts
appear way over-priced based on JSF
expectations for much larger pork production in
the second half of 2019.
• In 2017 cash hog prices topped in July. In
2018 cash hog prices topped in June. This
year’s top could very well come in May.
• Look for hog prices to trend lower from July
onward, and could dip into the upper $40s late
in the year.

CDN Pork Production And Slaughter
• 1% decline in 2018
• 2% increase in 2019
• Domestic availability will decrease due to exports

• Overall pork cutout finishes 2018 similar to 2017 and 2018
• Supported by Cdn$ and exports

CATTLE &
BEEF

• We are nearing a top in the cattle cycle that
began in 2014. For the next several years herd
liquidation will take place.
• Even though cattle numbers will be going down
from this point forward, beef production will
continue to increase for at least 2 more years.
fggg
• Beef production has been steadily rising
since 2015. That trend is expected to
continue this year and probably through
2021.
• Winter weather combined with smaller
feedyard inventories in early 2019 could
portend relatively tight beef availability. 22,510
23,510
24,510
25,510
26,510
27,510
28,510
29,510
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
CommercialBeefProduction(millbs)
Commercial Beef Production
Forecast
History
+2.4%
+1.3%
+5.0%

fggg
• Beef exports were very strong in 2018 but we
look for a modest reduction this year due to a
softer global economy.
• Beef imports into the US are almost as large
as beef exports, that should continue to be
the case in 2019.
• The US exported 11.8% of production in 2018.
• Carcass weights were below trend in 2017 and
2018. Look for a return to trend in 2019 & 2020.
• In the near-term cattle weights have been
hindered by poor feedyard conditions. It may
take until April before that situation returns to
normal.
660
1,160
1,660
2,160
2,660
3,160
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TotalBeefExports(millbs)
Total Beef Exports
Forecast
History
+11%
-4.5%

0.927
0.977
1.027
1.077
1.127
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
DIChoiceCutout(Index)
JSF Demand Index, Choice Cutout
Forecast
History
-0.3%+1.0%
fggg
• Look for the Choice cutout to trade slightly
above last year in the first half of 2019 and
then trade well below a year ago in the second
half of the year.
• Middle meats should continue to outperform
the end cuts although not to the degree that we
saw in 2018.
• Domestic beef demand was stronger in 2018,
largely due to a strong US economy.
• Growing supplies of competing proteins will make
it difficult for beef demand to increase further in
2019.
• As the economy cools this year, we look for
domestic beef demand to decline modestly.

fggg
• The front end of the futures curve is fairly-
priced relative to our take on the
fundamentals.
• However, the futures are expecting a much
stronger market in the fall and winter of
2019 than we think is justified.
• We are looking for a March top in the cash cattle
market with a modest rebound in June.
• Beyond June however, the cattle market could
get ugly and that will be positive for packer
margins and cause financial pain for cattle
feeders.

CDN Beef Production And Slaughter
• Big increase in 2018 followed by 2% decline in 2019
• JBS cutting kills in Jan-Feb

• Strong demand
• Weaker Cdn$ provides
support
CDN Beef Cutout

• Beef has become more expensive vs. competing meats
• Less competitive

• Beef margins at retail are
underperforming

CHICKENS &
POULTRY

300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
Ja Fe Mr Ap Ma Ju Jl Au Se Oc Nv De
$/ckg
Canadian Chicken Wholesale Composite Cutout Value
2011-2016 Average 2017 2018
• Very weak wholesale chicken values

• Wholesale chicken is very competitive

52 |
The group of companies are linked by a common thread integral within a
protein based supply chain.
A provider of innovative risk
management solutions, specializing
in meat & livestock.
“
At J.S. Ferraro & Company we combine our experience in the
derivatives markets, expertise in econometrics and over 30 years
in the cattle and hog industry to help our clients lead the herd,
manage their risk, and maximize their margins.
Progressive thinking and precise quantitative modelling are the
cornerstones of our margin management solutions.
Retail Ready is your “Go-To” protein
merchandising & industry expert.
Protein expertise at your fingertips.
Retail Ready Foods Inc. is a major niche distributor of fresh
beef and pork protein, providing peace of mind to mid-to-
large retailers and processors across the Americas. We
provide clients with superior market insight to help them
make informed decisions about their meat purchases,
supported by our expertise and well stocked inventory that
we deliver just-on-time, every time.
“

THANK YOU
Retail Ready Foods Inc.
130 Adelaide Street, Suite 810
Toronto, Ontario M5H 3P5
CANADA
(416) 306-8788
info@retailready.com | www.retailready.com
53 |
130 Adelaide Street, Suite 3302
Toronto, Ontario M5H 3P5
CANADA
(416) 306-8787
hello@jsferraro.com | www.jsferraro.com
Confidential. © Copyright J.S. Ferraro & Co. and Retail Ready Foods Inc. All Rights Reserved, 2019. Not for distribution. Retail Ready Foods Inc. and J.S. Ferraro & Company are part of the JSF Group of companies.

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