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China’s worldwide reach: Outward Investment (Heritage )
Investment Flows - total $2861 Million- in 2003 In USD million
Investment Flows - total $56,529 Million- in 2009 In USD million
Investment Flows – not  including HK Macau and Taiwan 2003 In USD million
Investment Flows – not  including HK Macau and Taiwan 2009 In USD million
Outward Direct Investment:  Flows 2003- 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ASEAN 125.7  195.6  157.7  335.8  1033.7  2484.4  2698.1  Central Asia 6.5  18.8  109.5  95.5  384.3  665.5  354.5  Northeast Asia 166.8  109.8  664.8  160.3  310.4  435.4  631.6  South Asia 11.7  4.5  17.1  (50.3)  935.9  494.7  78.8  MEAF 26.9  201.2  297.8  405.9  498.6  203.8  965.6  HK Macau Taiwan 1180.7  2655.0  3428.0  6888.4  13779.6  39283.6  36057.0  Africa 68.3  151.6  200.9  361.5  1297.4  5480.1  1070.5  EU 112.5  73.1  189.5  128.7  1044.1  466.6  2966.4  Russia & Rest of Europe 32.1  79.1  206.0  455.1  489.6  399.8  376.8  Central America & Caribbean 1022.5  1745.2  6484.7  8429.9  4448.1  3497.1  6998.3  South America 15.7  18.9  38.1  63.8  351.7  75.4  329.6  Australia & Oceania 33.9  120.2  202.8  126.4  770.1  1951.9  2480.0  US 65.1  119.9  231.8  198.3  195.7  462.0  908.7  Canada (7.3)  5.1  32.4  34.8  1032.6  7.0  613.1  Total 2861.1  5497.9  12261.2  17634.0  26571.7  55907.2  56529.0
ODI STOCK
Stock inflow 2003-2009 Top Countries
Outward Direct Investment: Stocks  in 2003  total  33,222   million USD USD Million
Outward Direct Investment: Stocks  in 2009  total  245,755   million USD USD Million
Outward Direct Investment: Stocks  2003- 2009   2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  ASEAN 587.0  955.8  1,256.3  1,763.8  3,953.6  6,487.4  9,578.9  Central Asia 44.4  78.6  350.1  489.4  934.0  2,017.4  2,343.2  Northeast Asia 339.3  799.1  1,194.6  1,533.4  2,431.7  2,374.2  3,413.8  South Asia 45.7  60.2  255.3  226.5  1,248.8  1,738.3  1,950.9  MEAF 537.4  810.8  1,438.5  2,050.7  2,231.8  2,676.7  3,743.6  HK Macau Taiwan 25,079.1  31,017.7  37,105.8  42,882.6  69,692.1  117,406.2  166,336.3  Africa 462.1  665.4  974.1  1,631.7  3,240.7  6,495.9  7,600.0  EU 421.7  537.4  767.9  1,273.3  2,940.9  3,172.7  6,229.1  Russia & Rest of Europe 65.4  130.7  478.8  952.1  1,463.4  1,884.8  2,360.4  Central America & Caribbean 4,393.8  8,168.4  11,500.9  19,440.0  23,907.3  31,167.8  29,199.4  South America 225.5  285.1  305.9  462.8  899.5  1,073.8  1,572.0  Australia & Oceania 472.3  544.0  650.3  939.5  1,830.4  3,816.0  6,419.0  US 502.3  665.2  822.7  1,237.9  1,880.5  2,389.9  3,338.4  Canada 46.2  58.8  103.3  140.7  1,254.5  1,268.4  1,670.3  Total 33,222.2  44,777.3  57,204.4  75,024.4  117,909.3  183,969.5  245,755.4
Stock of outward foreign direct investment
Global Outward FDI (2000-2009)  total 11.6 trillion USD $174.7 Billion USD Source: UNCTADstat
Country Loses Huge From Debt Holdings ,[object Object],[object Object]
CHINESE OVERSEAS LOANS AND ASSISTANCE
PRC Aid by Year and Region, 2003-2007 US$ 25,098 million
Global Net ODA in 2010 http://webnet.oecd.org/oda2010/
Geographical Distribution of China’s Foreign Aid Funds in 2009 By the end of 2009, China provided a total of US $39.47 billion in aid to foreign countries. Source: White Paper on China's foreign aid issued by China's Information Office of the State Council on April 21, 2011
CDB’s Energy- Backed Loans, 2005-2010
Estimated Oil Deliveries From CDB’s EBLs, 2010-2014
CHINA –U.S. ECONOMIC RELATIONS U.S.-CHINA
Symbiotic Relationship Between U.S. and China China is the largest foreign holder of US treasury securities, with a $1.2-trillion portfolio. China also has $3 trillion in currency reserves.
Trade
China’s trade with U.S. 283.679 101.959 2001 China joins the WTO Total trade in 2010: $385.6 billion Exports Imports
China’s share of trade in U.S. 2000 vs. 2010 17% 14% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn  China's surplus $29.8 bn China's surplus $181.7 bn
U.S. apparel prices goes where when import prices have risen lately?
Chinese Portfolio and Direct Investment in the US, 2009* USD bn, direct holdings only Source: US Treasury, BEA, RHG,  *portfolio investment data from mid-year 2009 and FDI data from end-year 2009
Value of U.S. imports of wooden bedroom furniture, by import country "To avoid a 2005 U.S. tariff on Chinese-made wooden bedroom furniture, Chinese furniture companies moved operations to other Asian countries, thwarting U.S. efforts to curb “dumping,” the export of goods at unfairly low prices
Investment- FDI
US Investment Income Payments to China, 1999-2009 USD bn, US BOP flow data Source BEA, RHG
US Inward FDI Stock by Region of Origin, 2009 % share of total stock in 2009 ($2.3 trillion), historical cost basis, UBO Source: BEA, RHG
The U.S. trade relationship with China Total trade: $365 billion
Chinese Direct Investment in the U.S., 2003-2010 USD mn and number of deals ,[object Object]
China’s Direct investments in the U.S.
The China Investment Monitor: 2003 ,[object Object],cim.rhgroup.net
The China Investment Monitor: 2003-2005 ,[object Object],cim.rhgroup.net
The China Investment Monitor: 2003-2007 ,[object Object],cim.rhgroup.net
The China Investment Monitor: 2003-2009 ,[object Object],cim.rhgroup.net
The China Investment Monitor: 2003-2010 ,[object Object],cim.rhgroup.net
Distribution by State: Top 20 USD mn and number of deals ,[object Object]
Distribution by Industry USD mn and number of deals ,[object Object]
Distribution by Ownership USD mn, number of deals, percentage of total ,[object Object]
Impacts?
FDI from China:  Enonomic  Benefits and Risks Benefits Risks Macro Effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Local Effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
U.S. Affiliates of Japanese Firms, 1977-2006* USD mn, thousand people ,[object Object]
National Security Impacts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IV. Doormen: Policy and Politics
Acquisitions Covered by CFIUS by Acquiror‘s Home Country Annual number of transactions covered ,[object Object]
Controversial Chinese U.S. Investments, 1990-2011 Summary Status 1990 ,[object Object],Blocked by the President 1995 ,[object Object],Completed  1999 ,[object Object],Blocked by Congress 2005 ,[object Object],Withdrawn ,[object Object],Withdrawn ,[object Object],Completed 2009 ,[object Object],Withdrawn ,[object Object],Withdrawn ,[object Object],Blocked by the Fed ,[object Object],Withdrawn 2010 ,[object Object],Withdrawn ,[object Object],Pending 2011 ,[object Object],Dissolved ,[object Object],Pending
Some estimate an increasing stronger economy will enable china to surpass the US in R&D
Policy, Politics and Conclusions
Formal FDI Openness in Global Comparison OECD Restrictiveness Index ,[object Object]
V. Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions 1. US booming for Chinese investors: but that’s not the story people hear 2. The driver is profit, the barrier is business acumen, but the scapegoat is CFIUS 3. US policy is functions well, the politics are frequently rash and capricious. With Chinese FDI booming and US politics neurotic, severe tensions are certain – unless misgivings can be resolved 4. More than $1 trillion Chinese OFDI by 2020: the local and macro stakes are serious
Recommendations 1. Send a clear and bipartisan message that Chinese investment is welcome 2. Systematize the promotion of FDI from China and elsewhere 3. Protect the investment review process from interference 4. Work to better understand Chinese motives 5. Communicate to China its share of the burden 6. Remain open to “what if” scenarios 7. Do not play the reciprocity game 8. Get our own house in order
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
Aids & Loans
CHINA –CANADA ECONOMIC RELATIONS CANADA-CHINA
Trade
Trade: Canada 1% 2% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn   China's deficit $0.6 bn China's surplus $7.4 bn
Investment- FDI
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
Aids & Loans
CHINA - LATIN AMERICA ECONOMIC RELATIONS Latin America-CHINA
Trade
China’s Trade with LA 91.5699 89.696 2001 China joins the WTO Total trade in 2010   : $181.2 bn Exports Imports
China’s share of trade in  Central America/Caribbean  2000 vs. 2010 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn   China's deficit $0.3 bn China's surplus $4.0  bn
China’s share of trade in  South America  2000 vs. 2010 2% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn  China's deficit $1.2 bn China's deficit $25.3 bn
Investment- FDI
China: FDI in selected Latin American and Caribbean economies
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
Aids & Loans
China is Investing Huge Amount of Money to Latin America ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China’s Natural Resources Deal With Latin America ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CHINA – EU ECONOMIC RELATIONS
TRADE
China’s Trade with EU 311.478 168.445 2001 China joins the WTO Total trade in 2010: 479.89 bn Exports Imports
China’s share of EU trade 2000 vs 2010 16% 18% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn  China's surplus $10.2 bn China's deficit $143.0 bn
Top countries for German Exports in 2010
Investment- FDI
Chinese acquisitions of European targets
Top Chinese investment in European targets on record per sector1
Top Chinese investment in European targets on record per sector2
Made in Italy Chinese firms' presence grow ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
China’s Involvement in EU Sovereign Bond ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China’s investment in European Bonds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Aid & Loans
CHINA –  RUSSIA AND REST OF EUROPE  ECONOMIC RELATIONS Russia and Rest of Europe -CHINA
Trade
China’s share of trade in Russia and rest of Europe 2000 vs 2010 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn  China's deficit $4.6 bn China's surplus $4.2 bn
Investment- FDI
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
Aids & Loans
CHINA - MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIC RELATIONS
Trade
China’s share of trade in Middle East 2000 vs. 2010 4% 6% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn  China's deficit $3.5 bn China's deficit $22.7 bn
Investment- FDI
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
Aids & Loans
CHINA - AFRICA  ECONOMIC RELATIONS  Africa-CHINA
Trade
China’s Trade with Africa 51.732 58.072 2001 China joins the WTO Total trade in 2010   : $109.8 bn Exports Imports
China’s share of trade in Africa 2000 vs. 2010 2% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn   China's deficit $11.5 bn China's deficit $125.2 bn
Sudan’s Oil Supply
Investment- FDI
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
Aids & Loans
CHINA – ASIA ECONOMIC RELATIONS
Trade
China’s share of trade in  Northeast Asia  2000 vs. 2010 19% 27% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn  China's deficit $11.5 bn China's deficit $125.2 bn
China’s share of trade in  Hong Kong, Macau  2000 vs. 2010 2000 2010 Macau US$230.0 bn $438.3  bn  $  2,723.5  bn  China’s surplus   $35.7  bn  China’s surplus $210.7  bn
China’s share of trade in ASEAN 2000 vs. 2010 11% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn   China's deficit $4.8 bn China's deficit $16.1 bn
China’s share of trade in South Asia 2000 vs. 2010 1% 3% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn  China's surplus $1.9 bn China's surplus $34.6 bn
China’s share of trade in Australia and Oceania 2000 vs. 2010 4% 2000 2010 $  2,723.5  bn  $438.3  bn   China's surplus $0.7 bn China's deficit $ 25.3 bn
Investment- FDI
Investment- Portfolio
Investment- Bonds
Aids & Loans

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CHINA GONE GLOBAL (Part 2)

Notas del editor

  1. Reported PRC Aid by Year, 2002-2007 2002 51 2003 1,482 2004 10,485 2005 10,106 2006 27,518 2007 25,098
  2. Chinese investment in the US is quite significant, but direct investment is tiny
  3. - Chinese FDI marginal share of total inward FDI stock in the US - However, problem with data from BEA for analysis: huge time lag, BOP methodology, doesnt capture flows through offshore financial centers, suppression of data, not all metrics, etc.
  4. So what we did: compiled our own dataset: bottom up approach Upsides: Results: Clear inflection in past 2 years: (...)
  5. - Other metrics that we present: distribution by state, by ownership!