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Causes, Costs, and Alternatives
Economists consider the link between rising inequality and economic instability
Two

primary causes of
depressions
1. Concentration of Wealth
Exploitation
2. Blockages in the circulation of

money



“Rolling” of money
Spreads crisis
 Political

capture

• Wealthy lobby for
 Tax relief
 Pro-globalization, anti-labor policies
 Deregulation of financial industry
 Stagnant

or declining average wages

• Borrowing to maintain consumption
 Greater

risk preference for rich
Dependent Variable: PCTGDPFALL
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/04/13 Time: 23:55
Sample: 1 139
Included observations: 139

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
TOPSHARE
CURRENCYCRISIS
DEBTCRISIS
STOCKMKTCRASH
BANKCRISIS
INFLCRISIS
LIFEEXPECT2000
YRSSCHOOL2000

-0.155758
-0.006128
0.004792
0.018260
0.011438
-0.007440
-0.053885
0.002331
-0.002049

0.088834
0.001435
0.014668
0.031538
0.013044
0.014561
0.018865
0.001339
0.003330

-1.753358
-4.269316
0.326711
0.578981
0.876893
-0.510936
-2.856326
1.741151
-0.615096

0.0819
0.0000
0.7444
0.5636
0.3822
0.6103
0.0050
0.0840
0.5396

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.244224
0.197714
0.070052
0.637949
176.9535
1.786557

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

-0.067373
0.078209
-2.416597
-2.226595
5.251069
0.000011
 Poor

neighborhoods targeted for predatory
mortgage lending
• Fraudulent loans (Ninja loans)

• Excessive fees
• Frequent refinacing
• Fraudulent foreclosures
 Encouraged

by biggest banks and gov’t
 No criminal convictions yet
/

www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/measuring-the-financial-sector-2
From Simon Johnson, MIT
 Encourages

risk

• Perverse incentives
 Distorts

consumption towards luxury goods
 Predatory towards the poor
 Robs resources from the rest of the
economy
• Talent goes to financial sector
 920

suicides
 648 Homicides
 20,240 fatal heart attacks or strokes
 494 deaths from liver cirrhosis
 4227 admissions to mental hospitals
 3340 admissions to state prisons

*Brenner, 1976
CBO February 5, 2013
Source: Reifschneider, Wascher, and Wilcox, Figure 1.1. From Federal Reserve
 Co-op-based economy inherently stable
• Locally-based, resistant to international contagion.
• Co-op workers reduce incomes rather than lay-off

in downturns
• Co-ops limit income inequality
 Investment

is community-determined
 Automation brings leisure, not
unemployment
 Government policy of 100% employment
 Unemployment

Spain:

• 26%
 Basque

• 15%

Region:

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Desigualdades e Desastre Económico – Novas Evidências - Mark Friedman

  • 1. Causes, Costs, and Alternatives
  • 2. Economists consider the link between rising inequality and economic instability
  • 3. Two primary causes of depressions 1. Concentration of Wealth Exploitation 2. Blockages in the circulation of money   “Rolling” of money Spreads crisis
  • 4.  Political capture • Wealthy lobby for  Tax relief  Pro-globalization, anti-labor policies  Deregulation of financial industry  Stagnant or declining average wages • Borrowing to maintain consumption  Greater risk preference for rich
  • 5. Dependent Variable: PCTGDPFALL Method: Least Squares Date: 08/04/13 Time: 23:55 Sample: 1 139 Included observations: 139 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C TOPSHARE CURRENCYCRISIS DEBTCRISIS STOCKMKTCRASH BANKCRISIS INFLCRISIS LIFEEXPECT2000 YRSSCHOOL2000 -0.155758 -0.006128 0.004792 0.018260 0.011438 -0.007440 -0.053885 0.002331 -0.002049 0.088834 0.001435 0.014668 0.031538 0.013044 0.014561 0.018865 0.001339 0.003330 -1.753358 -4.269316 0.326711 0.578981 0.876893 -0.510936 -2.856326 1.741151 -0.615096 0.0819 0.0000 0.7444 0.5636 0.3822 0.6103 0.0050 0.0840 0.5396 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.244224 0.197714 0.070052 0.637949 176.9535 1.786557 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) -0.067373 0.078209 -2.416597 -2.226595 5.251069 0.000011
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.  Poor neighborhoods targeted for predatory mortgage lending • Fraudulent loans (Ninja loans) • Excessive fees • Frequent refinacing • Fraudulent foreclosures  Encouraged by biggest banks and gov’t  No criminal convictions yet
  • 9.
  • 12.  Encourages risk • Perverse incentives  Distorts consumption towards luxury goods  Predatory towards the poor  Robs resources from the rest of the economy • Talent goes to financial sector
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.  920 suicides  648 Homicides  20,240 fatal heart attacks or strokes  494 deaths from liver cirrhosis  4227 admissions to mental hospitals  3340 admissions to state prisons *Brenner, 1976
  • 17. Source: Reifschneider, Wascher, and Wilcox, Figure 1.1. From Federal Reserve
  • 18.  Co-op-based economy inherently stable • Locally-based, resistant to international contagion. • Co-op workers reduce incomes rather than lay-off in downturns • Co-ops limit income inequality  Investment is community-determined  Automation brings leisure, not unemployment  Government policy of 100% employment
  • 19.  Unemployment Spain: • 26%  Basque • 15% Region:

Notas del editor

  1. Notice how the share of the nation’s income going to the top 10% increases sharply just before the stock market crash preceding the Great Depression and in 2007, just before the financial crisis and the Great Recession.
  2. U.S. housing policy: throw poor to loan sharks. Irony of rich rigging economy in their favor.
  3. 2003-2006 increase in MIT grads going into finance 13% to 25%. Harvard MBAs at 34%, down from 40% before recession. Concern from Nobel prize winning economists, Robert Solow and Robert Schiller
  4. Explain, due to lost investment, long term unemployed lose skills, many drop out of the labor force, are no longer productive
  5. Investment: no bubbles Less spending out of insecurity, keeping up with Joneses