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Created by: Parshwadeep Lahane Financial crisis 2008
Disclaimer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Let’s start with Basics
Bank ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: The Economist: Making Sense of Modern Economy
Potential problems in Bank ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: The Economist: Making Sense of Modern Economy
Criticality of Banking system ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: The Economist: Making Sense of Modern Economy
Investment Banks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: The Economist: Making Sense of Modern Economy
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Institutional investors Source: The Economist: Making Sense of Modern Economy
Pension funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hedge funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Insurance companies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Central Bank-US FED ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wikipedia
Government securities/bonds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wikipedia
Credit Rating Agency (CRA) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wikipedia
Mortgage Broker ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wikipedia
Sub-prime mortgage – What’s that? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wikipedia
Secondary Mortgage markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/08/how_mortgage_backed_securities.html
Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) Source: http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/08/how_mortgage_backed_securities.html   STEP 1  - A pool of mortgages are owned by a bank or lender. They are grouped into categories by credit risk including subprime, alt-a (between subprime and prime), and prime. STEP 2  - The pool of mortgages are  packaged  into a mortgage backed security. STEP 3  - The mortgage backed security is then  sliced and diced  into different classes with varying maturities (called tranches). Each tranche offers varying degrees of risk to the investor. The first loan to default will be placed into the Junk tranche while the strongest loans receive the highest credit rating of 'AAA' and are placed at the top of the tranche division. As with any asset associated with risk, the highest risk tranche receives the highest rate of return or yield while the lowest risk (AAA rated) will receive the lowest yield. STEP 4  - The tranches are then  resold  to investors who are willing to take on the varying degrees of risk and maturities.
Collateralized  Debt Obligation (CDO) simplified MBS CDO MBS ,[object Object],[object Object]
OTC market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/over-the-countermarket.asp
Now we are ready to look into the mess !
Evolution of home mortgage  Source : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/dodd.htm  ,Subprime Mortgage Market Turmoil, Christopher L. Peterson, Asst Prof of Law, Univ of Florida  1930s Lender-Banks Borrower-Individuals Home loan funding Principal + interest payable over long term  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lender-Banks Borrower-Individuals Home loan funding Principal + interest payable over long term  Bought loan Cash Transfer of credit risk, market risk  Had Access to long term borrowing Bought only those which conformed to certain underwriting standard ( called Prime Mortgages)
Evolution continued… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/dodd.htm  ,
New Model of mortgage lending Lender-Banks Home loan funding Principal + interest payable over long term  Bought loan Cash Transfer of credit & market risk MBS Cash Transfer of market risk   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SPV Securitization fees
Further evolution.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Details : Private Sub-prime mortgage process 1.  Brokers identify borrowers 2.  Originator and broker identify a loan for borrower after looking at his credit rating 3.  Formal application for loan by borrower 4.  Originator transfers the loan to the subsidiary of an investment banking firm ( Seller) 5.  Seller(Investment bank) collects a pool of loans and call it as SPE/SIV/SPV. Off balance sheet instrument 6.  SPV can be a corporation, partnership or limited liability company. Most often a Trust. It has nothing else except mortgage loans 7.  Underwriter  purchases all the securities (derivative income streams)  8.  In designing SPV and its tranches underwriter works with credit rating agencies  9.  Underwriter  then sells the securities to the investors 10.  High rated tranches might  be guaranteed by a 3rd party insurance company 11.  Seller also arranges to sell the rights  to service  the loan pool to a company or sometimes Originator  takes these rights 12.  MERS – document custodian. Company to keep track of mountains of paper work on loans in the pool.  At National level.  Source : Subprime Mortgage Market Turmoil , testimony by Christopher L. Peterson
Possible inter linkage in the US subprime mortgage market Source:  http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____66901.aspx
Reasons for forming of Subprime mess ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Big assumptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Misaligned incentives & pitfalls ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : Subprime Mortgage Market Turmoil , testimony by Christopher L. Peterson
Good days turn bad. Crisis at the door (mid 2006 onwards): ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
what a mess…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In Short ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/dodd.htm  ,
Those good old days were gone now!!
How Subprime became Global Financial Crisis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html   In billion US $ How could problems with subprime mortgages, being such a small sector of global financial markets, provoke such dislocation?
Build up into a financial crisis… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Poor Investors….  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Desperate banks…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Lessons learned & Action plans …. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Subprime losses by Big Banks Worldwide :US$ 586.2 billion and still counting Source: Financial Times
Finance & Economy ,[object Object],[object Object]
Investments devalued across the Globe Source: BBC News,  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/7644574.stm
Subprime impact across globe Source: Financial Times
Impact of Financial crisis-felt across the globe Source: Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/creditcrisis
Thanks
Market share shifted from 2003 to mid 2006  ,[object Object],Between sub-prime and prime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global pool of money Source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/2968727.html   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rise of Global Liquidity (1998 onwards) Source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/2968727.html   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FED interest rate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
High Banks leverage ratio’s to fund MBS/CDO
Building up of the housing bubble
Housing prices and Income Source: http://varbuzz.com/meltdown/  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Starting 2006 housing bubble busted
LIBOR rate
Credit rating of complex financial instruments Source: IMF and WSJ
Speedy Foreclosures
Top 10 Bankruptcies
The American way of debt Source:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070
Average debt of American in 2004 Source:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070

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Financial Crisis in detail

  • 1. Created by: Parshwadeep Lahane Financial crisis 2008
  • 2.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) Source: http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/08/how_mortgage_backed_securities.html STEP 1  - A pool of mortgages are owned by a bank or lender. They are grouped into categories by credit risk including subprime, alt-a (between subprime and prime), and prime. STEP 2  - The pool of mortgages are  packaged  into a mortgage backed security. STEP 3  - The mortgage backed security is then  sliced and diced  into different classes with varying maturities (called tranches). Each tranche offers varying degrees of risk to the investor. The first loan to default will be placed into the Junk tranche while the strongest loans receive the highest credit rating of 'AAA' and are placed at the top of the tranche division. As with any asset associated with risk, the highest risk tranche receives the highest rate of return or yield while the lowest risk (AAA rated) will receive the lowest yield. STEP 4  - The tranches are then  resold  to investors who are willing to take on the varying degrees of risk and maturities.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Now we are ready to look into the mess !
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Details : Private Sub-prime mortgage process 1. Brokers identify borrowers 2. Originator and broker identify a loan for borrower after looking at his credit rating 3. Formal application for loan by borrower 4. Originator transfers the loan to the subsidiary of an investment banking firm ( Seller) 5. Seller(Investment bank) collects a pool of loans and call it as SPE/SIV/SPV. Off balance sheet instrument 6. SPV can be a corporation, partnership or limited liability company. Most often a Trust. It has nothing else except mortgage loans 7. Underwriter purchases all the securities (derivative income streams) 8. In designing SPV and its tranches underwriter works with credit rating agencies 9. Underwriter then sells the securities to the investors 10. High rated tranches might be guaranteed by a 3rd party insurance company 11. Seller also arranges to sell the rights to service the loan pool to a company or sometimes Originator takes these rights 12. MERS – document custodian. Company to keep track of mountains of paper work on loans in the pool. At National level. Source : Subprime Mortgage Market Turmoil , testimony by Christopher L. Peterson
  • 27. Possible inter linkage in the US subprime mortgage market Source: http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____66901.aspx
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. Those good old days were gone now!!
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. Subprime losses by Big Banks Worldwide :US$ 586.2 billion and still counting Source: Financial Times
  • 41.
  • 42. Investments devalued across the Globe Source: BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/7644574.stm
  • 43. Subprime impact across globe Source: Financial Times
  • 44. Impact of Financial crisis-felt across the globe Source: Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/creditcrisis
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50. High Banks leverage ratio’s to fund MBS/CDO
  • 51. Building up of the housing bubble
  • 52.
  • 53. Starting 2006 housing bubble busted
  • 55. Credit rating of complex financial instruments Source: IMF and WSJ
  • 58. The American way of debt Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070
  • 59. Average debt of American in 2004 Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070