Yle is doing systematic future prediction in a continuous manner. We think that a prediction is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, based on experience or knowledge. In this work we bring together all available past and current information, as a basis to develop reasonable expectations about the future. Based on our prediction we also will make recommendations what predicted future means to Yle and what actions Yle should take.

1. Media technology
– future prediction 2018
18.12.2013

2. Agenda
1. General
2. Megatrends
3. Technology trends
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Media environment
Delivery
Reception
Technology and production tools
Production methods
4. Quiet signals
Workgroup:
Pasi Ekman, chair
Antti Plathan
Arto Markku
Jari Ruotsalainen
Johan Sundström
Jouko Pesonen
Juha Vesaoja
Olli Sipilä
Timo Salonen
Tuomo Stoor
Mirette Kangas
Janne Holopainen
Tuija Aalto

3. 1. General
“The whole thing goes: The future's not set.
There's no fate but what we make for ourselves.“
- John Connor, Terminator 2

4. Predication of the future state of
media
• “Anyone who tells you they can predict the future state
of media and its consumption patterns or business
models isn’t being honest. No one knows where things
are going and how they’ll play out. To succeed, we must
accept this state of confusion and embrace the chaos.
When there’s no obvious right answer, we’re forced to
experiment, and examine new, sometimes
uncomfortable, ideas. In media in 2013, invention,
creativity and ingenuity are the currencies of success.” Justin Smith, the new CEO of Bloomberg Media Group
• NYTimes: Bloomberg Media Recruits a New Chief From The
Atlantic 28.7.2013

5. Focus on disruptive technologies
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>> relevance >>
TV
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Radio
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?
R.I.P.
?
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?
>> development potential >>
?

6. Future prediction in time
perspective
Focus on solutions, that tie us up for a shorter time  faster reaction
Time
Near future, possible
to predict
Alternative
futures
Decision making time frame
Unexpected, irregular
future
Out of focus
Based on: Timo Santalainen: Strateginen ajattelu

7. Small impact
Large impact
Small propability
Meaningless noice
Weak signals
Large propablility
Trends
Megatrends
2. Megatrends

8. Megatrends
Media business will change in
combination of automation,
digitalization, ubiquitous society
and internationality
Ubiquitous
society
Internationality
Digitalization: Digitalization has already changed a lot of
media business production, delivery and receiving. It
creates a foundation of interconnected society, when any
processes can be linked. We are moving from isolated
systems to world where information is moving through
standardized or mutually agreed interfaces from system to
system.
Ubiquitous society: Interconnected information
technology is everywhere. Fingerprints of individuals or
organizations acts, like buying, moving, using media and
telecommunication are saved to service providers
databases. Information analytics can help provides to
create efficient and better services. Wearable technology
enhance trend of creating and using media everywhere.
Automation
Digitalization
Automation: Automation has expanded from industrial
processes to every business, this will also revolutionize
information and media business. Software will replace
human work faster and faster.
Internationality: Humans social, political, economical and
cultural acts are exceeding borders of countries. Domestic
media faces international competition in commercial and
pay-TV business. Their personnel have Finnish language
skills and on the other hand automation in translation is
developing fast. Small language area is not protecting
domestic business as it used to be.

9. Small impact
Large impact
Small propability
Meaningless noice
Weak signals
Large propablility
Trends
Megatrends
3. Technology trends

10. Developing technology environment
Delivery and
reception
UHDTV
4K, 8K
HD-receiver
45%
Tablets to almost
everyone
Smartphone to
everyone
Media
environment
Ubiquitous
Media society
overload
Persons
recognition
HEVC
Mobile internet
coverage expanding
LTE &
multicasting
TV
Everywhere
Internet with wire
coverage reducing
Adaptive
Streaming
Technology and
production tools
Speech
recognition
Virtual
networks
Content is
Mobile first
decentralized
and centralized
Light satellite
technologies
Prosumer
tools
Automated
processes
Cloud services
in production
Production
methods
Decentralized Automated
production
IP-delivery Fiber to home Public internet
metadata
Mobile
systems
in production
Location
production tools
Connected
Wearable
Digitalization
Sharing economy
independet
Car
internet
OTT & VOD Open Source your own Automation
Bring
production
device /
Augmented
Croudsourcing
Visualization
Open archives
Internationality Smart TV
service
reality
Lean startup
Cloud services Remote production
GeoMedia
Data- models
Gamification
Resolution
Personalized Open data SD quality Big Data
Multi & trans- journalism
is enough
independent
Partners
media
media
Croudfunding
Multiscreen Mobile usage
Media
Light live
Robotics
Agile
Interaktivity
and -stream
recommendation
productions
of media
2018
2013
2018

11. Dying technology environment
2025
2018
2013
2018
2025
Exclusive national
Tape workflows
Paper only
Time and place
Specialized media
media environment
media
tied work
expertices
C-casette
Apps
Video rental business
BetacamSP
Physical media
VHS
Manual, simply work
Jobs in media
(CD, DVD)
Tube screens
are declining
ADSL 3D TV
Wired phones
Basic phones
Dedicated HW
Weekly meetings
Game
Intranet
Traditional broadcast
Standard
consoles
Media environment
STB
equipment vendors Desktop PC
office hours
as we know it
Standard tools for
E-mail
Terrestrial
Mouse
every journalist
PAY-TV channels
Camera memory
Media
Production
cards
SDI
environment
Current TV viewing
methods
Linear channel
rating system
based TV
SD TV channels
Facebook
Wired LAN
Data tapes
Wired
production tools
Delivery and
reception
Technology and
production tools

12. Media environment

13. Media environment
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Media usage shifts to mobile
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Media sharing and recommendation
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Personified media offering, based information collected from known consumers about their usage
history and motives. Privacy is still big issue.
New allocation of commercials is taking revenue from traditional broadcast TV
Always available – time based catalog services and PVR
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Consumers are in charge and their behavior are breaking traditional delivery chains
Pirating media is decreasing, but some still download their media illegally. Some media companies
(i.e. Netflix) are using lists of top downloaded to make their decisions.
Crowdsourcing and -funding: Media companies are using crowd to collect information or funding.
Personified media
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Media usage shifts to tablets and smart phones
Wearable internet, like smart watches, smart clothes, glasses.
Use of geolocation in program making – “GeoMedia”
Augmented reality: Connecting real and virtual objects interactively and real-time actual location
Consumers are moving away from buying and owning media to paying to view media.
Content are stored in cloud, not in personal devices
It is not yet clear if network based Personal Video Recorders are legal or not
Multitasking, multiscreen, multistream
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Consumer is following multiple sources in multiple devices at the same time (Second screen)
Interactivity: Consumers interactivity elements is mainstream in programs (Social TV)
Gamification: Game type elements in programs to hook consumers in program series

14. Ecosystems: Tree main players?
Linux / Android
Apple
Microsoft
YouTube
Amazon
Netflix
Other players:
i.e. Facebook, HBO, CMore – FilmNet, Hulu, teevee.fi, Magine, Spotify, BBC iPlayer, Rakuten…

15. Delivery

16. Delivery
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Change of mobile internet
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Wireless networks are developing
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LTE networks will become common and will increase the speed.
Multicasting in networks might enable delivery of linear AV programs, but they will not
offer same QoS as cable connection. In VOD they will offer enough quality to most of
the consumers.
Network development will make possible of delivery of audio to moving consumers,
but coverage of the networks will not be same as traditional FM-networks.
Picture quality is developing
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Internet- and IP-services - linear and on-demand video services are developing and
are challenging traditional cable and over the air delivery
Cable to home – fast internet connections will become common, especially in
crowded areas
Area of availability of fixed cables to home will shrink from current 92% to 80% by
year 2020, when teleoperators will not renew their copper cables.
Current SD picture quality is enough for most of the consumers. How ever
forerunners require better quality, specially in sports and in IP-delivery.
Adaptive bit rate streaming will offer better viewing experience
UltraHD TV - 4K/8K and better coding (HEVC) will pushed from technology vendors
Mobility
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Receiving of Television and other visual content will become available in every device
and regardless of location (TV Everywhere)

17. Reception

18. Consumer’s gadgets 2018
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TV sets
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Full HD TV sets (DVB-T2/C/S) are in 45% of households.
Most of the TV sets, smart TV’s have embedded browser or applications that
support media services.
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UltraHD TV (4K) sets will become available and those are marketed aggressively,
but domestic content is very limited. 4K will come to homes via internet, not
broadcast.
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Tablets are sold more than PC’s in Q4/2013
Growth will slow down after early stages, but tablet will be in 2018 as common as
PC today - (in 89% house holds in 8/2013)
Tablet will be common in interactive services as second screen and replacing 2nd
TV set in homes
Smart phones
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Sony PS4 will be the first player 4K in Finland at the end of 2013
Netflix will offer 4K in 2014
Tablets
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Even when TV set can support IP services, max. half of the house holds connects it
to internet – no motivation.
Open HbbTV-standard has already some test cases in Finland, but probably will not
be the main solution to use media services
Separate streaming service gadgets are on the market and they are linked wit
ecosystems (AppleTV, Google Chromecast, Sony GoogleTV, …)
Mobile devices are linked to TV sets: AirPlay, Chromecast, WiFi Direct, …
Smart phones will eventually replace traditional mobile phones, more than 90%: will
be smart phones
Mobile devices have become so powerful, all possible future usages are
hard to imagine

19. Technology and production
tools

20. Technology and production tools
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Use of Cloud services and public internet will increase as the
production tool vendors are launching their services.
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Fast mobile internet and lightweight satellite technologies can
change in many ways how production is done and increase the
amount of live shows
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Journalists are no longer dependent fixed tool in the office
System vendors are integrating mobile tools and cloud services
IP-network based production tools, virtual networks (Software
Defined Networks) and other new network technologies in
broadcast area are making it possible to work with audio and
video remotely
A wide selection of open source software is available in
broadcast domain, these are becoming a viable alternative to
current expensive tools
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First production tools are available as cloud services
Media transfers from cloud
Tools for editing, graphics, and setting up a radio station
Needs new models for support
Prosumer tools (i.e. cameras) are being used more commonly,
replacing pro-level equipment

21. Technology and production tools
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Services and tools targeted to consumer market are used in office and production
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Production systems are developing at a rapid pace
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Enables a move away from the single vendor “one system fits for all” thinking
Production environments can be made to fit to different requirements, no need for massive centralized
systems
Productions target mobile or internet users first
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There is a trend towards decreasing the number of applications
One user interface i.e. web browser
Better and more standards based integration possibilities (this has traditionally been the weak point)
System vendors can focus more i.e. quality of systems, workflows and user experiences
Technology enables multiple production environments in big organizations - loosely connected
to each other
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”Bring your own device or service”
Consumer devices are integrated with cloud type services
Also pro quality production devices can be owned by users
Responsive design and touch screens form a common design standard, but media companies have to
support multiple applications in multiple ecosystems simultaneously
Services using geo location and social networks will become more common
Big data & Open data enables new information sources and linking different kind of information
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Amount of available data offers new opportunities, especially in user behavior area
Subtitling services are eased with automation
Speech recognition, etc.

22. Production methods

23. Production methods
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Production trends are moving to lighter methods:
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In bigger productions new methods emerge
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Remote productions / studios
Automation and robotics
Partnerships, networking
Data journalism, data visualization and different virtual technologies makes it
possible to present content in new ways
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It is possible to have dedicated systems for a certain product (production)
Lighter and live programs will become more common (Live Events)
More and more productions are transmedial
Multimedia and transmedia productions benefit most of visualization
Video, picture, sound and text are combined
Interactive social media elements together with traditional programs
Media companies must offer content also to second screen
User generated content is added to the programs
Open archives and automated metadata creation makes it possible to create
new kinds of content

24. 4. Quiet signals

25. Bubbling under – things to follow
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Operators controls whole media chain
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Media device will recognize the viewer / user
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Pilots already made, i.e. VizRt, Skype is developing 3D videophone calls
Guidance or consultation from distance
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Like tax haven , country or area where are no regulation concerning rights. It will be crowded by
companies that can offer media services very cheap
3D- or hologram video to distance
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For piloting, proof of concepts, TV set up planning
Data haven
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Lots of new ways to consume media in public places
4D and 3D printing
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All devices ca use same signal in households, no need for antenna cables
Piko-, Femto-networks or even transmitters and receivers integrated in standard light bulbs
Intelligent paper & see through monitors
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Consumers will only have tablet and they can consume every media
Different short range wireless networks & DVB-T  IP
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Recognize who is using, activity of user or recognition of gestures
Tablet will become fully personal media device
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Some operator will have control of everything, from choosing the content made available to cable
of last mile to home. i.e. Google Fiber in Kansas
Users can publish their location with their problem, social network can help them from distance
Service via videophone, where users can get help for example fixing a bike or baking a cake
Movie theatres will become luxury and hi-res movies come to homes
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Experts predict $150 future movie tickets & Sony Video Unlimited 4K & PRIMA Cinema