The document provides an economic outlook for Belgium and the world. It summarizes that: 1) The global economy remains positive, led by steady growth in the US, while China's economy is slowing and concerns exist over emerging markets. 2) The Belgian economy continues growing with rising confidence indicators and increased labour market dynamics. 3) Positive labour market conditions are likely to strengthen the activities of Federgom members, represented by a trade association.

1. RENTRÉE
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
1 September 2015
« POSITIVE LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN THE ACTIVITIES OF
FEDERGON MEMBERS »

2. WORLD ECONOMY
UNITED STATES REMAIN THE GROWTH ENGINE
CONCERNS OVER CHINA, EMERGING COUNTRIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE
MODERATELY POSITIVE SIGNS COMING FROM EUROPE
BELGIAN ECONOMY
CONTINUING GDP-GROWTH
RISING CONFIDENCE INDICATORS
INCREASED DYNAMICS ON THE LABOUR MARKET
CONCLUDING REMARKS FOR FEDERGON MEMBERS
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ‘RENTRÉE’

3. WORLD ECONOMY

4. UNITED STATES
AMERICA’S LEADING ECONOMY ANNOUNCED POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS
JOB CREATION: 215.000 extra jobs in June confirm an unbroken flow of job creation, keeping the
unemployment rate on a low level of 5,3%
2% INFLATION: American Federal Reserve is convinced inflation will reach the 2% objective in the medium
term
TWO IMPORTANT CONDITIONS FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO CONSIDER A RISE OF THE INTEREST RATE
A prospect that pushed up the dollar, partly leading to a yuan depreciation in China
But the latest news is that an increase of the interest rate won’t be for September
Creating a downward pressure on the dollar exchange rate
GDP Growth:
+2.3%(Q2 yoy)

5. CHINA
CHINA’S ECONOMY LOSES STEAM
Decreasing business confidence
8% fall in Chinese exports in July
Overcapacity in the industry: output prices have been falling for 41 straight months
= painful transition from an investment-led economy to a consumption-centred economy
CHINA CUT THE YUAN LOOSE FROM THE DOLLAR’S CENTRAL RATE
A depreciation meant to keep the yuan’s value in line with those of its peers
Hardly a dramatic shift: the -2.9% depreciation is a minor compensation for appreciation of the yuan in
recent years (+12% since 2014, +37% since 2011)
FEARS ABOUT CHINA’S SLOWDOWN PUT PRESSURE ON STOCK MARKETS
Consequently, the Chinese Central Bank decided to lower the
interest rate and liberalised the capital-demand for banks
These measures prevented the Chinese stock market to fall
any deeper
GDP Growth:
+7.0%(Q2 yoy)

6. EUROPE
EUROPEAN GROWTH FIGURES ARE MODERATELY POSITIVE
GDP-growth in the Eurozone reached +1.2% in Q2
The result of diverging growth figures in the Member States
Benefiting from cheap oil, a competitive euro, a low interest rate & an active
Central Bank
GREXIT AVOIDED
A third support package funded by the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism
(EFSM) bypassing the Greek ECB debts, mounting to 86 billion € in 3 years
This solution is only temporary, in-depth solutions will probably imply a haircut
Austria; 0,4%
Italy; 0,5%
France; 1,0%
Belgium; 1,3%
Greece; 1,5%
Germany; 1,6%
Netherlands; 1,6%
Britain; 2,6%
Spain; 3,1%

7. LOWERING OIL PRICES
ONGOING GROWTH OF WORLDWIDE OIL PRODUCTION LOWERS PRICES
Almost all OPEC-members generate oil at production-limit (except for Saudi-Arabia & Iran)
The lifting of the Iranian trade sanctions resulted in Iranian oil stocks entering the market
 An increased production will be put in place in the coming months
A STABILISATION OF THE PRICE AROUND $50/BARREL IS EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM TERM
Downward pressure on prices: a modernisation of the Iranian infrastructure should increase production
in the coming years
Upward pressure on prices: other energy sources (shale gas for example) will become unprofitable
because of the low oil prices, tempering the production
LOWER OIL PRICES DAMP INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Both in the short and the mid-term inflation will remain low due to modest oil prices

8. BELGIUMImproving economic indicators

9. BELGIAN ECONOMY
9TH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER OF POSITIVE GROWTH
+0.4% in first quarter (Q/Q-1)
+0.4% in second quarter (Q/Q-1)
EXPORT
ADDED VALUE IN CONSTRUCTION & INDUSTRY
INVESTMENT IN HOUSING
* Q3 ‘14/Q3 ‘13 = +0,9% | Source: NBB
-13,4%
-4,2%
-2,1%
-0,1%
0,2%
0,2%
0,3%
0,4%
0,4%
0,5%
0,6%
0,8%
1,2%
3,3%
Corporate Investment in fixed-assets
Public Investment in fixed-assets
Interior Demand
Public Consumption
Supply Change
Employment
Added Value - Services
GDP
Import
Private Consumption
Added Value - Industry
Investment in Housing
Added Value - Construction
Export
Q2 '15 Components of the
Belgian GDP-growth (Q/Q-1)
+ - CORPORATE & PUBLIC INVESTMENTS
INTERIOUR DEMAND

10. Source: NBB
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1|2007
3|2007
5|2007
7|2007
9|2007
11|2007
1|2008
3|2008
5|2008
7|2008
9|2008
11|2008
1|2009
3|2009
5|2009
7|2009
9|2009
11|2009
1|2010
3|2010
5|2010
7|2010
9|2010
11|2010
1|2011
3|2011
5|2011
7|2011
9|2011
11|2011
1|2012
3|2012
5|2012
7|2012
9|2012
11|2012
1|2013
3|2013
5|2013
7|2013
9|2013
11|2013
1|2014
3|2014
5|2014
7|2014
9|2014
11|2014
1|2015
3|2015
5|2015
7|2015
Consumentenvertrouwen | La confiance des consommateurs | Consumer Confidence
Ondernemersvertrouwen | La confiance des chefs d'entreprise | Business Confidence
CONFIDENCE INDICATORS
CONSUMER & BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN 2015

11. 93.698
96.522
93.387
84.830
97.276
94.202
90.151
75.364
83.092
76.567
71.193
65.847
86.481
89.142
88.622
84.011
104.666
108.692
100.562
88.247
98.545
95.223
84.964
82.767
86.834
85.429
83.414
86.843
93.965
93.768
89.794
82.093
104.224
109.569
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
Brussels
Wallonia
Flanders
STRONG RISE OF JOB OFFERS IN FLANDERS (PLACED IN PES)
+5.5%
-3.2%
+20.9%
Q/Q-4
Source: RVA

12. SMALL BUT CONTINUING INCREASE OF EMPLOYMENT
Q/Q-1
NBB
0,1%
0,0%
-0,1%
-0,1%
-0,1%-0,1%
0,1%
0,0%
0,1%
0,2%
0,1%
0,1%
0,2%
0,2%
EMPLOYMENT (TOTAL GROWTH)
-0,5%
-0,5%
-0,3%
-0,1%
-0,1%
0,2%
0,2%
0,3%
0,3%
0,4%
0,6%
0,7%
Industry
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Services: Financial and insurance
Construction
Services: Public services & education
Services: Information and communication
Services: Arts & entertainment + household
Services: Retail & transport
Services: Total
Services: Real estate
Services: Human health and social work
Services: Science, Tech & Administration
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Q2 2015)

13. INCREASING INFLATION RATE
CLOSING UP TO THE 2% ECB-TARGET
INFLATION PROJECTIONS JUNE ’15
Based on the assumption of a rise in oil prices in 2016 –
rise of VAT-rate on electricity not included
(The Federal Planning Bureau)
IMPACT ON WAGES?
The pivotal index would not be crossed in either 2015 or
2016 -1,00%
-0,50%
0,00%
0,50%
1,00%
1,50%
2,00%
jan/15
feb/15
mrt/15
apr/15
mei/15
jun/15
jul/15
aug/15
sep/15
okt/15
nov/15
dec/15
jan/16
feb/16
mrt/16
apr/16
mei/16
jun/16
jul/16
aug/16
sep/16
okt/16
nov/16
dec/16
Consumption Index
Health-index
Source: www.plan.be

14. REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Source: www.plan.be
GDP GROWTH 2014-2016 2017-2020
BELGIUM +1.3% +1.6%
BRUSSELS +1.0% +1.5%
FLANDERS +1.4% +1.7%
WALLONIA +1.2% +1.5%
EMPLOYMENT 2014-2016 2017-2020
BELGIUM +0.6% +0.7%
BRUSSELS +0.4% +0.7%
FLANDERS +0.7% +0.8%
WALLONIA +0.5% +0.6%
ECONOMIC GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR FLANDERS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FOR WALLONIA & BRUSSELS
AS A RESULT NET JOB CREATION WILL BE BIGGER IN FLANDERS THAN IN THE OTHER REGIONS
Flanders: +129.000 (cumulated for 2015-2020)
Wallonia: +47.000 (cumulated for 2015-2020)
Brussels: +26.000 (cumulated for 2015-2020)

15. THE FEDERGON TAW-INDEX INCREASES STEADILY
268,9
238,0 240,5
01-07
03-07
05-07
07-07
09-07
11-07
01-08
03-08
05-08
07-08
09-08
11-08
01-09
03-09
05-09
07-09
09-09
11-09
01-10
03-10
05-10
07-10
09-10
11-10
01-11
03-11
05-11
07-11
09-11
11-11
01-12
03-12
05-12
07-12
09-12
11-12
01-13
03-13
05-13
07-13
09-13
11-13
01-14
03-14
05-14
07-14
09-14
11-14
01-15
03-15
05-15
07-15

16. 10% GROWTH FOR THE TAW-INDUSTRY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2015
Q1+Q2 2015 (YOY) TOTAL BLUE COLLAR WHITE COLLAR
BELGIUM +10.1% +9.4% +11.0%
FLANDERS +9.9% +9.9% +9.8%
WALLONIA +8.5% +9.4% +6.8%
BRUSSELS +16.1% +2.2% +21.5%
CONSTRUCTION +13.1%

17. THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN THE SHORT & MEDIUM TERM IS MODERATELY
POSITIVE.
AN INCREASING CONFIDENCE WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT
OF THE LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS, NOTICEABLE IN AN INCREASE OF
EXPANSION VACANCIES AND A HIGHER OPENING RATE OF REPLACEMENT
VACANCIES. THIS SHOULD OPEN UP BETTER PROSPECTS FOR FEDERGON
MEMBERS.
FURTHERMORE THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE
MARKET-DRIVEN SECTORS REPRESENTS ANOTHER LEVER FOR THE ACTIVITIES
OF FEDERGON MEMBERS.
THE POSITIVE TREND OBSERVED DURING THE LAST QUARTERS ON THE LABOUR
MARKET SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE IN THE COMING MONTHS.

18. RESEARCH & ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT
PAUL VERSCHUEREN / THIBAUT PRINCEN
Havenlaan 86c/302 - 1000 Brussel
Avenue du Port 86c/302 - 1000 Bruxelles
Tel: 02/203 38 03
Fax: 02/203 42 68
stat@federgon.be
CONTACT