Evolving connectivity

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University of Hertfordshire

How is everything getting connected and where is it going

Tecnología Educación

Evolving Connectivity

Peter Cochrane

ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Possible subtitle:

When machines…

…come to our rescue!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

A few axiomatic things I
need to get off my chest…

….that may give
you a wider perspective(?)

Thursday, 11 November 2010

We build top down to create complex
things to complete simple tasks…

Mother Nature builds bottom up to create
simple things to achieve the complex!
Thursday, 11 November 2010

We are now the limiters of progress…
technology is advancing faster than we
can respond...

..but it may
not be that
way forever!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

No individual can ever understand these!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Everybody is on line...
Soon it will be everything!

>4Bn people have mobile phones and >50% are internet ready!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Everything in the universe is
governed by non-linearity and
chaotic actions….

…but we are linear and
limited thinkers devoid
of tools & techniques to
help us comprehend…

If we have a long-term future it lies with our
technology and machines and their ability to
help us extend our knowledge & understanding

Thursday, 11 November 2010

A false sense of conﬁdence!

The known The unknown

The unknown The known
Our educational Our post-education
perception experience
Thursday, 11 November 2010

No human leader, from the past, present or future
has the wisdom & ability to govern a complex planet!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

No human scientist, past, present or future has
the wisdom & ability to understand a complex planet!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

There are lots of simple solutions to
complex problems…

…and they are all wrong!

Single issue thinking is now dead or dangerous

Thursday, 11 November 2010

People look at problems through
one of these:

When they actually need
one of these:

Thursday, 11 November 2010

The changing shape of societies…
Inherently
linear & well
Hunter Early Industrial behaved…
Gatherer Civilizations Revolution
Optimizing
individual
parts can
optimize
the whole

Intuition
Connectivity ∝ N and does not scale mostly
works
Thursday, 11 November 2010

The changing shape of societies…Inherently
Connectivity non-linear &
not well
Phone ∝N 2 Information
behaved…
Society
Internet∝N n
Optimizing
individual
parts never
optimizes
the whole

Intuition
mostly
fails
Thursday, 11 November 2010

The changing shape of societies…

Semantic
Society
This all gets
very much
worse as
everything
becomes
mobile and
intelligent
and sensory

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...
Autonomous: Sensors
Computing power
Artiﬁcial Intelligence
Human Augmentation
Decision Making
System Control
People Support
Society Support
Commercial Support

Thursday, 11 November 2010

How will we deal
with the complex ?

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Hypothesis

The combined
intelligence of
all humanity is
insufﬁcient

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Hypothesis

Our only hope is
The combined
the combined
intelligence of
all humanity is
intelligence
insufﬁcient
of our machines

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Connected
Population Social Networks
Dynamic
Network
Growth

Static
Network
Growth

Time

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Connections
My LinkedIn
20% of total
M Population Growth
8

7
Model
6

5
Measured
4
Points
3

2

1
Time
06/07 07/08 08/09

Thursday, 11 November 2010

How many people in your network,
and how many things/devices?

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Human
v Futures
Machines
# Machines
Chips
Computers # Humans
Robots
Nano-Bots
Bio-Bots # Robots

Time

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Our very recent awakening...

All life systems
Chaotic
Creativity
Linear Non-Linear Behaviours
Systems
Problem solving
+++++

Human abilities & knowledge

Machine abilities & knowledge
Thursday, 11 November 2010

So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?

How about:
- sensors?

- adaptability?

Thursday, 11 November 2010

But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
And our machines will see, hear, smell….
…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken
by the sociology of ﬁxed & mobile things

Thursday, 11 November 2010

What can machines do now?

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Genetically ~99.4% human

If ~0.6%
matters
so much…

no wonder
IT systems
are so dumb!

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Gradually our machines
are sensing more than us!
Communication
with others

Experience?? Experience
Wisdom
Intelligence? Intelligence
Knowledge
Processing Processing
Information

Sensors Senses
Data

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Thank you….
ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s

Thursday, 11 November 2010

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Smart Materials and Structures

University of Hertfordshire

We are engaged in an exponentially growing cyber war that we are visibly losing. Within the next 3 years it has been estimated that the global cost will equal, or overtake, the UK GDP, and it is clear that our defences are inadequate and often ineffective. Malware and ransomer-ware continue to extort more money, and cause damage and inconvenience to individuals, organisations and society, whilst hacker groups, criminals and rogue states continue to innovate and maintain their advantage. At the same time, our defences are subverted and rendered ineffective as we operate in a reactive and prescriptive, after the fact, mode with no foresight or anticipation. In any war it is essential to know and understand as much about the enemy as possible, it is also necessary to establish the truth and validity of any situation or development. Doing this in the cyber domain is orders of magnitude more difficult than the real world, but some of the relevant tools are now available or at an advanced stage of development. For example; fully automated fact checkers and truth engines have been demonstrated, whilst situational awareness technologies are commercially available. However, what is missing is some level of context assessment on a continual basis. Without this we will continue to be ‘blind-sided’ by the actions and developments of the attackers as they maintain their element of surprise along every line of innovation. What do we need? In short ; a Context Engine that continually monitors networks, servers, routers, machines, devices and people for anomalous behaviours that flag pending attacks as behavioural deviations that are generally easy to detect. In the case of attacker groups we have observed precursor events and trends in network activity days ahead of some big offensive. However, this requires a shift in the defenders thinking and operations away for the reactive and short term, to the long term continual monitoring, data collection and analysis in order to establish threat assessments on a real time. The behavioural analysis of people, networks and ITC, is at the core of our ‘Context Engine’ solution which completes the triangle of: Truth; Situation; Context Awareness to provide defenders with a fuller and transformative picture. Most of the known precursor elements of this undertaken have been studied in some depth, with some behavioural elements identified on real networks and some physical situations. The unknown can only add more accuracy!

TRUTH, SITUATION, & CONTEXT AWARENESS

University of Hertfordshire

Más de University of Hertfordshire (20)

The Philosophy of Science

Future Telecoms Challenges & Opportunities

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Resurgence of Technology Driven Change

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Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?

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Technologies That Will Change Everything

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Society 5.0 Redefined

The Future WorkScape

Engineering Reliability and Resilience

Smart Materials and Structures

TRUTH, SITUATION, & CONTEXT AWARENESS

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Evolving connectivity

1. Evolving Connectivity Peter Cochrane ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Thursday, 11 November 2010

2. Possible subtitle: When machines… …come to our rescue! Thursday, 11 November 2010

3. A few axiomatic things I need to get off my chest… ….that may give you a wider perspective(?) Thursday, 11 November 2010

4. We build top down to create complex things to complete simple tasks… Mother Nature builds bottom up to create simple things to achieve the complex! Thursday, 11 November 2010

5. We are now the limiters of progress… technology is advancing faster than we can respond... ..but it may not be that way forever! Thursday, 11 November 2010

6. No individual can ever understand these! Thursday, 11 November 2010

7. Everybody is on line... Soon it will be everything! >4Bn people have mobile phones and >50% are internet ready! Thursday, 11 November 2010

8. Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions…. …but we are linear and limited thinkers devoid of tools & techniques to help us comprehend… If we have a long-term future it lies with our technology and machines and their ability to help us extend our knowledge & understanding Thursday, 11 November 2010

9. A false sense of conﬁdence! The known The unknown The unknown The known Our educational Our post-education perception experience Thursday, 11 November 2010

10. No human leader, from the past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to govern a complex planet! Thursday, 11 November 2010

11. No human scientist, past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to understand a complex planet! Thursday, 11 November 2010

12. There are lots of simple solutions to complex problems… …and they are all wrong! Single issue thinking is now dead or dangerous Thursday, 11 November 2010

13. People look at problems through one of these: When they actually need one of these: Thursday, 11 November 2010

14. The changing shape of societies… Inherently linear & well Hunter Early Industrial behaved… Gatherer Civilizations Revolution Optimizing individual parts can optimize the whole Intuition Connectivity ∝ N and does not scale mostly works Thursday, 11 November 2010

15. The changing shape of societies…Inherently Connectivity non-linear & not well Phone ∝N 2 Information behaved… Society Internet∝N n Optimizing individual parts never optimizes the whole Intuition mostly fails Thursday, 11 November 2010

16. The changing shape of societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory Thursday, 11 November 2010

17. Web 3.0...4.0...5.0... Autonomous: Sensors Computing power Artiﬁcial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support Thursday, 11 November 2010

18. How will we deal with the complex ? Thursday, 11 November 2010

19. Hypothesis The combined intelligence of all humanity is insufﬁcient Thursday, 11 November 2010

20. Hypothesis Our only hope is The combined the combined intelligence of all humanity is intelligence insufﬁcient of our machines Thursday, 11 November 2010

21. Connected Population Social Networks Dynamic Network Growth Static Network Growth Time Thursday, 11 November 2010

22. Connections My LinkedIn 20% of total M Population Growth 8 7 Model 6 5 Measured 4 Points 3 2 1 Time 06/07 07/08 08/09 Thursday, 11 November 2010

23. How many people in your network, and how many things/devices? Thursday, 11 November 2010

24. Human v Futures Machines # Machines Chips Computers # Humans Robots Nano-Bots Bio-Bots # Robots Time Thursday, 11 November 2010

25. Our very recent awakening... All life systems Chaotic Creativity Linear Non-Linear Behaviours Systems Problem solving +++++ Human abilities & knowledge Machine abilities & knowledge Thursday, 11 November 2010

26. Our very recent awakening... All life systems Chaotic Creativity Linear Non-Linear Behaviours Systems Problem solving +++++ Human abilities & knowledge Machine abilities & knowledge Thursday, 11 November 2010

27. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent? How about: - sensors? - adaptability? Thursday, 11 November 2010

28. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors! And our machines will see, hear, smell…. …detect and communicate in a way and at a rate we cannot! Thursday, 11 November 2010

29. The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of ﬁxed & mobile things Thursday, 11 November 2010

30. What can machines do now? Thursday, 11 November 2010

31. What can machines do now? Thursday, 11 November 2010

32. Genetically ~99.4% human If ~0.6% matters so much… no wonder IT systems are so dumb! Thursday, 11 November 2010

33. Gradually our machines are sensing more than us! Communication with others Experience?? Experience Wisdom Intelligence? Intelligence Knowledge Processing Processing Information Sensors Senses Data Thursday, 11 November 2010

34. Thank you…. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Thursday, 11 November 2010

Evolving connectivity

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