Until recently we were the sole designers, alone in the driving seat making all the decisions. But, we have created a world of complexity way beyond human ability to understand, control, and govern. Machines now do more trades than humans on stock markets, they control our power, water, gas and food supplies, manage our elevators, microclimates, automobiles and transport systems, and manufacture almost everything. It should come as no surprise that machines are now designing machines.

1. When Machines
Design
Wachines!
Peter Cochrane
www.cochrane.org.uk
1

2. Where is...
2001: A Space Odyssey
Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
2

3. Where is...
In 1970 it was 30 years in the future
2001: A Space Odyssey
Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
2

4. Where is...
In 1970 it was 30 years in the future
In 2000 it was 30 years in the future
2001: A Space Odyssey
Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
2

5. Where is...
In 1970 it was 30 years in the future
In 2000 it was 30 years in the future
In 2010 it was 30 year in the future
2001: A Space Odyssey
Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
2

6. The complexity
involved was not
understood...
3

7. 4

8. Far more was
Where is...
than
known !
4

9. What we now know
for sure:
Intelligence demands:
- context
- cognition
- awareness
5

10. Let us pray
Let us spray
Lettuce spray
6

11. After 1.8Bn years
we still can’t…
…adequately describe,
define, quantify or
understand intelligence
7

12. It is just another word that
lacks any full or adequate
descr iption, definition,
quantification, measure or
meaning...
8

13. It is just another word that
lacks any full or adequate
descr iption, definition,
quantification, measure or
meaning...
• Life
• Intelligence
• Complexity
• Scaleability
• Value
• Think(ing)
8

14. And wordy descriptions of the form...
“The faculty of rational behaviour”
“An ability to create order out of chaos”
...do not help one iota !
9

15. Unfortunately all attempts
to quantify and measure
IQ have turned out to be
a waste of time !
Despite the dire warnings
about the limitations of his test
and the way it can be applied it
is still used today !
10

16. On the other hand this would not be a good
answer !
Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything from the supercomputer,
Deep Thought, specially built for this purpose. It takes Deep Thought 7½ million years to compute
and check the answer, which turns out to be 42. Unfortunately, The Ultimate Question itself is
unknown.
Douglas Adams: The Hitchhikers Guide to The Universe
11

17. So’ where is AI ?
12

18. Kasporov...1997
IBM Big Blue
13

19. Kasporov...1997
IBM Big Blue
...and people got very
upset - as another age
old barrier was broken!
13

20. Computer games...today !
14

21. Modelling the unthinkable & designing
exit strategies !
15

22. Everywhere !
16

23. Everywhere !
17

24. AI is gradually
taking over the
complex and the
mundane!
18

25. But, what is
intelligence ?
19

26. !
ow
nk
But, what allyis
tu ?
ac
intelligence
n ’t
do
e
W
19

27. Remembering,
recalling facts
might be ?
20

28. Explain quantum
mechanics!
Remembering,
recalling facts
might be ?
What’s your name ?
20

29. Explain quantum
!
is
mechanics!
th
do
to
s Remembering,
in e
h recalling facts
ac
t m might be ?
ge
c an
e
W
What’s your name ?
20

30. Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
21

31. Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
e!
n gin
e
ch
ar
se
fast
a
in ly
r ta
s ce
t i
I
21

32. Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
e! r!
gin ni se
e n g
ch co
r re
s ea ak
as
t spe
f
a od
in ly
a go
rt a ly
ce in
i s ta
It c er
is
It
21

33. Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
e! r!
gin ni se t!
e n g x
co te
rch re c on
s ea e ak e
fa st sp som
a o d ng
in ly go d oi
a a ly
e rt in ly in
c
rt a ta
It
is
ce cer
is is
It It
21

34. Man - Machine conflict is with us !
22

35. Man - Machine conflict is with us !
!
n ce
lli ge
inte
hi ne
ac
m
an
h um
in ed
b
Com
22

36. Remembering stuff ,
knowing algorithms,
creating the new and
novel ?
Remembering stuff
& applying a
rehearsed algorithm?
23

37. Remembering stuff ,
knowing algorithms,
creating the new and
novel ?
h is!
t
l ike
k ids
w ith Remembering stuff
ol
ho & applying a
sc
to
en
t rehearsed algorithm?
Iw
23

38. is!
th
l ike Remembering stuff ,
pl e knowing algorithms,
p eo
w ith creating the new and
rk
wo novel ?
o
ott
Ig
h is!
t
l ike
k ids
w ith Remembering stuff
ol
ho & applying a
sc
to
en
t rehearsed algorithm?
Iw
23

39. What we now know about intelligence
Intelligence demands:
- data...lots of data
- context...many examples
- cognition...algorithms(+) ?
- sensory systems
24

40. My analysis says Comparative Intelligence
looks like this:
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
For detail GOTO: http://www.cochrane.org.uk/publications/
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41. Observations on:
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
26

42. Observations on:
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
With zero processor power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
26

43. Observations on:
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
With zero processor power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
With zero memory power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
26

44. Observations on:
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
With zero processor power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
With zero memory power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
With zero sensor and/or actuator power intelligence is impossible
Ic ~ k log2[1] = 0
26

45. Relative Intelligence
Ic
Ir =
Flops (or machine cycles)
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
27

46. One element of
the evidence...
28

47. One element of
the evidence...
60% light up !
28

48. Key conclusion:
Intelligence grows logarithmically and not linearly !
The singularity event isn’t going to happen just yet !
The assumption that is is is based on I ~ PM growth looks to be wrong
Kurzweil et al
29

49. Not fully understanding
something doesn’t imply
we cannot exploit it!
30

50. Not fully understanding
something doesn’t imply
we cannot exploit it!
Ballistics
Newton Einstein
Linear Non-Linear
30

51. So where is AI in
design ?
Circuit, chip, system design +
production control & logistics
31

52. So where is AI in
design ?
Big plant design + production
control & logistics
32

53. So where is AI in
design ?
Complex system design +
control & adaptive systems
33

54. So where is AI in
design ?
DARPA Mach 20 trial design
34

55. So where is AI in
design ?
NASA SatCom antenna design
35

56. So where is AI in
design ?
NASA Space habitat design
36

57. So where is AI in
design ?
DATA Space search & design
37

58. A lot of AI design
combines AL &
evolution !
38

59. But is AI ever
creative ?
39

60. 40

61. A planetary
walker not by
the hand of
man....and not
an evolutionary
step on from
any existing
design!
41

62. Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly
apocalyptic on the topic:
42

63. Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly
apocalyptic on the topic:
42

64. Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly
apocalyptic on the topic:
42

65. Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly
apocalyptic on the topic:
42

66. Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly
apocalyptic on the topic:
…but the reality is quite different..so far!
42

67. AI is more than a useful tool, it is now an
essential element of our future:
- Robotics
- Cybernetics
- Complex Systems
-
- Smart Materials
- Genetics
- Proteomics
- Nano - Bio Systems
43

68. When Machines Design Machines:
Our progress will accelerate....
44

69. Thank you !
Slide set and supporting papers are here:
www.cochrane.org.uk
www.ca-global.org
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
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