1. FForest Fire Investingorest Fire Investing
By Phin UphamBy Phin Upham

2. Investing From a GlobalInvesting From a Global
PerspectivePerspective
 See the forest rather than the trees
 Blend different lenses to see what others are not
 Competition between experts: tallest tree in a forest was in 10 years?
 A botanist: fastest growing
 An immunologist: tree with disease
 A pedologist: tree rooted in most fertile ground
 Are they all wrong?
 A layman: stepped back and saw possibility of a forest fire
 Layman chooses tree alone in the field.
 What happens if this crisis breaks on a global scale?
 What is the most likely equivalent of a global forest fire?

3. This Too Shall NOT PassThis Too Shall NOT Pass
 Debt of global recession
 Might not pass until ugly adjustments are made
 Great Depression ended with WWII
 War effort lifted US, drove economy
 If that crisis was ended by a world war could this one
too?

4. Obvious HotspotsObvious Hotspots
 Israel: At odds with near-nuclear Iran.
 What will the cascade of responses to this be?
 Former Soviet and Baltic States: discontent as
currencies are under pressure
 China: Escalating protests
 Problems are significant.
 “You make us rich, you can have power” tested.

5. Area of Deep ConcernArea of Deep Concern
 Totalitarian countries: oil exporters who have high
marginal costs.
 Middle East is fine
 Wealthy nations like Canada will be fine
 Troubling examples: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
 Marginal cost close to $100

6. Area of Deep ConcernArea of Deep Concern
 Totalitarian countries: oil exporters who have high
marginal costs.
 Middle East is fine
 Wealthy nations like Canada will be fine
 Troubling examples: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
 Marginal cost close to $100