1. America’s Incredible, Shrinking, Aging, Less Ready,
Ever More Expensive Armed Forces
AHS, Patuxent MD, August 2009
Winslow T. Wheeler
Director, Straus Military Reform Project
Center for Defense Information
winslowwheeler@msn.com
1

2. Mis-Measuring
the “Defense” Budget
2

3. What Is the “Defense” Budget?
Category FY 2010
(Request)
DOD (“Base”) 537.7
War Funding 130
“Atomic Energy Defense Activities” (DOE) 17.7
“Defense Related Activities” (GSA, etc.) 7.4
Total “National Defense” 692.8
Homeland Security (DHS) 42.7
Veterans Affairs (DVA) 105.8
International Affairs 48.6
Non-DOD Military Retirement 27.8
21% of Interest on the Debt 56.9
Grand Total 974.6
3

4. DOD Budget 1947-2010
($Billions, 2009$)
Source: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
19 7
19 0
19 3
19 6
19 9
19 2
19 5
19 8
19 1
19 4
19 7
19 0
19 3
19 6
19 9
19 2
19 5
20 8
20 1
20 4
20 7
20 0
20 3
20 6
19
4
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
0
0
0
1
1
1
19
DoD Budget ($BN) Cold War Average
4

5. 19
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
4
19 7
5
19 0
5
19 3
56
19
5
19 9
6
19 2
6
19 5
6
19 8
71
19
7
19 4
7
19 7
8
19 0
83
19
8
19 6
8
% of GDP for DOD
19 9
9
(Pretend Spending Trend)
19 2
5 9
19 5
98
20
0
20 1
0
20 4
Mis-Measurement a la Conservatives
0
20 7
10

6. Mis-Measurement a la Liberals
(The Spin)
700 Defense
All Others
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Discretionary Appropriations
6

7. Mis-Measurement a la Liberals
(The Data)
Defense Spending v. Others
2500 All Others
2000
1500
1000
Defense
500
0
All Appropriations
7

8. United States vs. the World
($ Billions)
$900
$800 762 736
693
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
IISS 2008 SIPRI 2008 2008 National Defense
8

9. US vs. China, Russia, Cuba, Iran, North Korea
($ Billions, 2009 Dollars)
Total Defense Spending per IISS 2008
$800
693
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
205.7
$200 122
$100 70
1.6 7.1 5
$0
C
R
Ir a
N
A
N
C
hi
at
us
or
ll
ub
n
to
na
io
th
si
a
na
a
th
K
or
l
e
D
Le
ea
ef
ft
en
se
20
08
9

10. More Money Buys a Smaller Force
10

11. Army Division Equivalents and Budget
($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008, Center of Military History, Historical Perspective
on Force Structure Reductions 1946-1988, Washington, D.C. 1989, Department of Defense Annual Reports, and Department of Defense Appropriations Bill Reports from the
House Committee on Appropriations.
Army Division Equivalents Army Budget ($Billions)
30 250
25 200
20
150
15
100
10
5 50
0 460
82
91
55
64
73
00
46
55
64
73
1
0
9
8 2
9
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
11

12. Navy Combat Ships and Budget
($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008
1200 250
1000 200
800
150
600
100
400
200 50
0 0
46
5
64
3
82
1
00
46
56
6
6
86
6
06
5
7
9
7
9
6
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
Active Navy Combat Ships Navy Budget
12

13. Air Force Tactical Wings and Budget
(Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008 and Air Force
Historical Research Agency (Maxwell AFB) analysis, “Force Structure, United States Army Air Forces and United States Air Force.”
70 250
60
200
50
40 150
30
100
20
10 50
0
0
46
55
64
73
82
91
00
19
19
19
19
20
19
19
46
5
64
3
82
1
00
5
7
9
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
Active Air Force Tactical Wing
Equivalents Air Force Budget
13

14. DOD Budget & Active Duty Personnel
(1947-2010)
($Billions, 2009 Dollars)
DoD Budget ($BN ) Active Duty Personnel (x1,000) Linear (DoD Budget ($BN )) Linear (Active Duty Personnel (x1,000))
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
14
1981
1951
1961
1971
1991
2001
1947
1949
1953
1955
1957
1959
1963
1965
1967
1969
1973
1975
1977
1979
1983
1985
1987
1989
1993
1995
1997
1999
2003
2005
2009
2007

15. More Money Buys Less
Procurement of Air Force Fighter & Attack Aircraft
CBO Assessment of FY 2008 Defense Budget
15

16. More Money Buys an Older Force
16

17. 17

18. 18

19. 19

20. And, Less Ready
20

21. Readiness
• Army Tank Miles: Down from 800 to 550
• Are units going to Iraq “ready?”
• Naval aviators getting 17 hours/month.
• Air Force is worse.
21

22. More Capability?
• F-22 Example
– Puny Force at Gigantic Cost
– Inadequate Resources for Pilot Skill
– Major Aerodynamic Disappointment
– How much “Stealth” & “Supercruise”?
– Unproven BVR Hypothesis
• & Unexercised Antithesis
• The unaffordable F-35 is worse.
22

23. The Prospects for Reform
• Lots of Lipstick
• Even More Talk
• One Notable Action
23

24. Hopelessly Cosmetic Levin-McCain-Lynn Bill
• Cost Czar can’t dictate prices.
• Anti-Fly-before-Buy Provision.
• Interested contractors to continue analysis of DOD
programs.
• Nothing on FM, or Oversight, or Pork
• Expect it to be as big a failure as Goldwater-Nichols.
24

25. Talk Is Cheap
• “And if Congress sends me a bill loaded with
that kind of waste [earmarks], I will veto it.”
(BHO, Veterans of Foreign Wars, August 18,
2009)
• Bills loaded with $3 billion to $9 billion in pork.
• SAP gives green light to GE F-35 engine &
more.
25

26. Action Counts
• After a nasty, brutish and long fight, F-22
was ended.
• More big ticket fights needed.
• Hundreds of earmarks to be costed,
studied, competed.
26