Universal Credit - where next for social policy?
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At IRRV Scotland Conference 2018 in Crieff Deven Ghelani, Founder and Director of Policy in Practice, was invited to speak about analysis and policy updates on Universal Credit. In his presentation Deven talked about the Social Security Act in Scotland and Universal Credit, covering how different demographic groups are likely to be impacted. He highlighted analysis that Scottish local authorities can do with the household level data they collect on their local income households and gave examples of how other local authorities use this data to identify, target and track vulnerability. For further details please contact hello@policyinpractice.co.uk or visit www.policyinpractice.co.uk.
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Universal Credit - where next for social policy?
- 1. Deven Ghelani Policy in Practice After Universal Credit: Where next for social policy?
- 2. We make the welfare system simple to understand, so that people can make the decisions that are right for them We help people toward independence by making the welfare system simple to understand.
- 3. Agenda 1. The Social Security Act in Scotland 2. Universal Credit and the power of household data 3. The impact on Social Policy • Measuring Poverty: Financial Resilience • Preventing Poverty: Tracking households • Effective Policy: Making the most of limited resources 4. The impact on local delivery • Target support to households on Universal Credit • Understand the impact of homelessness interventions • Engage residents in effective support to build resilience 6. Questions and next steps
- 4. • 11 Benefits • Worth £2.9bn annually • Affecting 1.4m people • Scottish Choices • Carers allowance “Scottish Ministers must have regard to the possibility that: information obtained for the purpose of determining an individual’s eligibility … might be used to identify the individual’s eligibility for other types of assistance.” Social Security Act and Scotland
- 5. Typical approach The loss of Universal Credit work allowances will cost £250m in Scotland, affecting 240,000 families Sheffield Hallam / Treasury estimates Household data approach Ms Mclean at Spring Lane in Aberdeen faces a shortfall of £371 per month, and will be £54.38 per month worse off as a result of Universal Credit. Childcare can help her into work. Policy in Practice analysis The power of household level data
- 6. Universal Credit data infrastructure States A state is a view of the data at a given point in time, for example the information held on the last day of assessment period in the preceding calendar month. The data captured would be each of the input fields required for a UC claim. Relationship status Number of children / DoB Postcode Non-dependants / Income Disability status Rent / Tenure type Income (Claimant / Partner) Savings Events An event is a change in state, for example the information that a claimant changed an input field in their Universal Credit claim (e.g. had another child) and the claim journey they took to get there. Change in circumstance Completion rate Bounce rate Time to complete Analytics: e.g. Who needs help with managed migration Claimant journey: e.g. Rent vs Rent or Housing Benefit
- 7. 777 So what does that mean for Scotland? A regional analysis: London
- 8. 888
- 9. A Regional Analysis • 27% of the total population in participating boroughs • Access the report here
- 10. The static picture • Working-age households in work: 42% • Average number of hours worked: 25 • 80% of households earn below living wage. Phase 1 revealed a constant churn Dynamic analysis • 12% of households moved into or out of work in the last 12 months. • 8% of out of work households moved into work. Disability is the greatest barrier into work. By shifting the focus from the aggregate figures to dynamic analysis, a picture of constantly changing employment patterns emerges.
- 11. Causal analysis: Households affected by the Benefit Cap are 21% more likely to move into work, versus a control group. Future policy impacts: 78% of low-income self- employed households are set to lose out by over £4,000 per year. Phase 2 tracks who is hardest hit
- 12. Phase 3: Financial Resilience One in seven low-income London families income does not meet their costs. Benchmarking: The boroughs with the greatest proportion of low-income families facing a cash shortfall were Enfield, Brent and Camden. Trends: One in every three low-income families faced a cash shortfall for at least one month during the two years covered by the analysis. Struggling families typically accrued a shortfall of over £2,000 over nine months. Forecasting: The number of struggling households could triple in the coming years. Overall two thirds of low-income households face a drop in disposable income of more than £30 per week by 2020.
- 13. A demonstration: How analytics are being used by local authorities
- 14. Bring multiple datasets together and apply analytics… To show the combined impact of policy – both now and in the future. Councils are using this to track financial resilience and arrears, for targeted collection efforts. The cumulative impact of policies…
- 15. …on each individual household….
- 16. Link the data directly into our Benefit and Budgeting support in single system. Efficiencies avoiding multiple or repeat data capture. Show the impact of moving into work alongside personalised and preventative advice on actions to increase income, and reduce costs. … to engage residents
- 17. Understand the pathways into and out of debt and poverty. Understand the journey into and out of debt, or see household in severe, short term or persistent debt. Understand the effectiveness of interventions to get people out of debt. …and track households over time
- 18. And proactively contact customers
- 19. Consistent data-driven measures that build a detailed granular picture of poverty and living standards. Improve people’s incomes through take-up, targeting local support and actions to promote independence. Better use of limited public funds through better targeting & proactive preparation for future reforms. A common platform to track outcomes and living standards allows best practice to be shared. Influence national policy and funding through evidence-backed inclusive economic growth. Active Social Policy in Scotland
- 20. Ask better questions in social policy You have power of welfare policy. Show that Scotland can do a better job!
- 21. 212121 Questions
- 22. www.policyinpractice.co.uk Contact us Deven Ghelani deven@policyinpractice.co.uk 07863 560677 Peter Carter Peter@policyinpractice.co.uk 07805 254371 Megan Mclean megan@policyinpractice.co.uk 07568 075274
Notas del editor
- UC rollout in Scotland – 30 Minutes! Scottish control over welfare powers – Effectiveness of support IRRV two years ago – the minister said this was unsustainable… A macro view of Universal Credit and core policy concerns – Impact on Scotland [Visit to Glasgow UC Service Centre] An insight into the data infrastructure underpinning UC delivery, and the impact this can have in targeting support, engaging residents, and evaluating the impact of policy Tracking Everything! States / Events… You can track this today! What impact might this have, if data were properly structured, what questions would you ask (???) Drivers of poverty and prevention… Household level data, and this is what Scotland should have! Measuring poverty: Financial Resilience Preventing Poverty: Tracking households Limited resources: Effectiveness You probably think you want to support ‘X’, but you might want to talk about ‘Y’ An overview of what social policy lessons have been learned to date through these approaches, and the implications for the design of social security in Scotland.
- Three main areas: - Software Analytics Policy I worked on Universal Credit, Policy into Practice – Make sure policy can be understood by people and organisation on the frontline. Ensure policy is informed by practical experience on the frontline.
- UC rollout in Scotland – 30 Minutes! Scottish control over welfare powers – Effectiveness of support IRRV two years ago – the minister said this was unsustainable… A macro view of Universal Credit and core policy concerns – Impact on Scotland [Visit to Glasgow UC Service Centre] An insight into the data infrastructure underpinning UC delivery, and the impact this can have in targeting support, engaging residents, and evaluating the impact of policy Tracking Everything! States / Events… You can track this today! What impact might this have, if data were properly structured, what questions would you ask (???) Drivers of poverty and prevention… Household level data, and this is what Scotland should have! Measuring poverty: Financial Resilience Preventing Poverty: Tracking households Limited resources: Effectiveness You probably think you want to support ‘X’, but you might want to talk about ‘Y’ An overview of what social policy lessons have been learned to date through these approaches, and the implications for the design of social security in Scotland.
- Aims to establish a Social Security system built on 'respect and dignity' of claimants. Scottish choices Scotland has recently been given control over important elements of social security and won concessions in the context of Universal Credit. Scottish Choices means that customers can choose to have their Universal Credit paid twice monthly and now, like the rest of the UK, Universal Credit claimants can choose to have the housing element of their claim paid directly to the landlord. Case Managers told us that while direct payments to landlords had a good level of take-up, fortnightly payments weren’t often taken up, possibly because the first payment is still only made after five weeks. The Scottish government now also has responsibility for considerable elements of the social security system, for example Disability Living Allowance, Personal Independence Plans, though funding has to be raised within Scotland. Prepares for the transfer of power over the following 11 benefits, worth £2.9bn annually, from Westminster to Holyrood up to 2021: Personal Independence Payments Carer's Allowance Attendance Allowance Disability Living Allowance Winter Fuel Payments Cold Weather Payments Severe Disablement Allowance Industrial Injuries Disability Benefits Funeral Expenses Payments (to be replaced by Funeral Expense Assistance) Sure Start Maternity Grant (to be replaced by Best Start Grant) Discretionary Housing Payments These changes will affect 1.4 million people. The first act was taken in summer, to increase the carers' allowance by 13%, in line with Job Seekers' Allowance. The Act also highlights the importance of using data to build a comprehensive support system, and in informing claimants of their entitlement: ‘Scottish Ministers must have regard to the possibility that information obtained for the purpose of determining an individual’s eligibility for one type of assistance might be used to identify the individual’s eligibility for other types of assistance.’ ----------- Benefits' take up campaign - £300 million last year £120m spent to mitigate the LHA cap Scottish Welfare Fund The SWF assumed responsibility over Crisis Grants and Community Care Grants in 2013, when these previously Westminster-administered benefits were scrapped. A total of £164.8 million has now been paid through the Scottish Welfare Fund (July 31st 2018) - helping nearly 300,000 households since 2013.
- BRADFORD Governments may know how one policy affects many people. We can show how all policies combined affect one person. We work with household level data from over 40 different local authorities to Welfare reforms we model, and how accurate we are.
- Use this as a slide but don’t play video
- By shifting the focus from the aggregate figures to dynamic analysis, a picture of constantly changing employment patterns emerges.
- Download and extract the data.
- One big data store – Query across London - Scalable Different policy scenarios – Universal Credit Benchmarking – See what’s working, and where the impacts are Longitudinal - Tie Cause and effect Household level data, and this is what Scotland should have! Measuring poverty: Financial Resilience Preventing Poverty: Tracking households Limited resources: Effectiveness