Low Income Londoners Steering Group, September 2018
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Latest findings from Policy in Practice's data led investigation into the causes and consequences of poverty in London were presented on 20 September 2018. We recently shared the latest findings from our pan-london analysis of living standards, tracking 600,000 low income families across 19 London boroughs over two years. The work is unique in its use of large scale administrative data, linked over time, and its ability to look forward at poverty projections for individual households. The approach is being used by a dozen local authorities across the UK to target support. Highlights from Phase Three include: Low income Londoners are becoming less financially resilient. The proportion of Londoners with low financial resilience has grown by 20% in the last two years, and will continue to grow through to 2020 Employment helps build financial resilience. Employment is the main driver of people improving their financial resilience; for people affected, welfare reforms are a driver of lower resilience, but they don’t tell the full story Living standards fluctuate. Over two years a quarter of low income households in work lost their job at least once; improving job stability can help build resilience The future isn’t bright. Londoners on low incomes face a bleak future with an average drop in their disposable income of £100 p/w if rents and other livings costs continue to rise as expected. For more information visit www.policyinpractice.co.uk/low-income-Londoners, email hello@policyinpractice.co.uk or call 0330 088 9242.
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Low Income Londoners Steering Group, September 2018
- 2. Agenda Welcome and introductions • Funding secured to 2020 - a word from Susie @ TFL • Impact of the project to date from Giovanni • The latest analysis: Financial resilience and UC Future analysis • Public Facing Dashboard and cross-border analysis • Your priorities (Facilitated Workshop Session) • Feedback What we need from you Networking and drinks!
- 3. Thank you
- 4. 444 Susie Dye Grant Manager, Trust for London
- 5. Bexley Bromley Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Kingston Lewisham Boroughs not yet participating Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond Wandsworth Westminster
- 9. Recent coverage of our analysis Sunday 25 March 2018 Monday 26 March 2018 Monday 17 September 2018
- 10. A recap of the findings so far
- 11. • Outer London boroughs are more heavily impacted by welfare reforms • Disability is the greatest barrier into work • An effective measure of living standards should take household needs into account • The benefit cap has had a positive impact on the employment outcomes of households affected (+21% likelihood of moving into work) • Self-employment is a popular option for Londoners on low-income (25% of all employed households). The Minimum Income Floor will hit four in five low-income self-employed Londoners, with an average loss of over £4,100 per households per year. Findings from phase 1 & 2
- 12. 131313
- 13. The importance of measurement • Financial Resilience Measure is a good way to identify households in need. Confirmed by the SMC report • Our analysis finds that the number of households with low financial resilience has grown and will continue to grow • Social housing and employment opportunities are the main driver of improved financial reslience. • Outlook for 2020 is bleak if rents and other livings costs continue to rise as expected and benefits remain frozen. • UC will bring significant changes to living standards (40% worse off). We can track families as they move onto it
- 14. 151515 What should we focus on next?
- 15. 161616 Two Questions: Public Facing Dashboard? - Underlying data not accessible - UC analysis available to publicly National Insurance Numbers? - To track cross-border movements - From January 2016 or 2018
- 17. What should we focus on next? Take-up Income volatility Impact on costs Persistent poverty Track Interventions Common patterns Food / fuel poverty Actual impact of Universal Credit Useful context for internal analysis Build a case for additional funding Impact of welfare reform and key drivers ‘Stuck’ on Benefit Cap / Bedroom Tax Movement of people across boroughs Private Rented Sector vs Social Rented sector What do people on low incomes want from the welfare system?
- 18. Impacted by the under-occupation charge for over a year 19,685 Households impacted by the under occupation charge over the entire year Borough Percentage of households currently impacted by the under-occupation charge who were impacted for the whole year H&F 89.0% Southwark 88.1% Lambeth 85.4% K&C 84.6% Hackney 84.2% Brent 84.0% WF 83.7% Greenwich 83.6% Ealing 82.6% Islington 81.7% B&D 81.4% Croydon 79.7% Enfield 79.0% Camden 77.6% Barnet 74.1% Sutton 72.2%
- 19. Impacted by the benefit cap for over six months 5,772 Households impacted by the benefit cap over the last 6 months from Jan 2018 Borough Percentage of households currently impacted by the benefit cap who were impacted for a 6 month period Sutton 74.2% Croydon 67.8% K&C 66.6% WF 65.7% Southwark 65.3% Greenwich 64.5% Lambeth 64.3% Haringey 63.3% B&D 62.5% Islington 62.0% Brent 61.6% Enfield 60.4% Camden 60.3% Hackney 60.1% Ealing 56.3% TowerHamlets 54.4% Barnet 54.2%
- 20. 212121 Food / Fuel Poverty Universal Credit Additional Funding Other policy impacts Workshop What’s stopping you from getting involved? What questions do you have? Can you expand on your research questions, how to show it, and the impact it will have? Benefit Take-up Persistent Poverty Income Volatility Welfare Reforms
- 21. Wave 2: What we need from you Last 9 months of HB and CTRS data (January - September 2018) • NINOs required to track households moving across boroughs • Encrypted locally and subsequently uploaded onto our secure data-store If you are a new joiner: • Sign our GDPR-compliant Data Sharing Agreement • Get us in touch with your data colleagues • Our team are able to help with extraction • Sign up for our next steering group meeting
- 22. Feedback Forms! • Have you used any of the findings so far? If, yes how? • What do you plan to do with these findings? • Should we make these findings accessible via an interactive web app?
- 24. 252525 Thank you Giovanni Tonutti giovanni@policyinpractice.co.uk Terrin Mathew terrin@policyinpractice.co.uk Deven Ghelani deven@policyinpractice.co.uk 0330 088 9242
Notas del editor
- So today’s agenda Why you are here The difference between the two sessions today What we need from you and what you get in return Systematic, Scalable, Causal analysis One big data store – Query across London Different policy scenarios – Universal Credit and self-employment Benchmarking – See what’s working, and where the impacts are Longitudinal - Tie Cause and effect TA / EA by borough. Next Steps: DWP Letter Your participation in the project Universal Credit data Intros :Go round the room, introduce yourself and say what you want to get out of today, what would you like to see the analysis or software do? I have a full presentation but can tailor it to your needs. Policy : l’ll quickly recap the welfare reform changes that are still to come in this parliament, that we know of, and share some of the analysis we’ve done on the national impact that welfare reforms have had to date. Local picture: More interestingly, I’ll then focus on the local picture of welfare reforms and share some examples of work we’ve done with other clients. I’ll demonstrate why every household matters by showing you the different impacts of reforms on next door neighbours. Our approach: By now you’ll want to know how we do the analysis so I’ll take you through our approach and show you a dataset CTRS: I have some examples of the CTRS modelling work we’ve done for other clients to show you Software: And then we’ll take a look at our software Feedback from other clients and frontline advisors Next steps