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1
Thevalueof
within-day
flexibilityinthe
GBelectricity
market
Pöyry Point of View:
Shaping the next future
2
The electricity system in the UK is facing
unprecedented change. As a result of the
European 2020 renewable energy targets, the
UK is planning to build approximately 15 GW
of new wind generation (above current levels)
by 2020, and the aspiration of the government
is to continue the development of low
carbon generation beyond then, with a likely
continued growth in wind generation, as well
as solar. In addition, the closure of thermal
plants due to the EU Large Combustion Plant
Directive (LCPD) and the Industrial Emissions
Directive (IED) means that flexible plants
which could have been used to balance1
the
system will no longer be available.
The integration of renewable generation on
the GB electricity system leads to a greater
need for flexibility, whilst risks for wind
generators increase
Figure 1 – Understanding the risks associated with rising levels of renewables
Growth in error
Growth in renewables
Risk Exposure
more flexibility needed
| PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
Introduction
3
Terminology uncovered:
Within day period – Between day
ahead (T-24 hours) and gate closure
(T-1)
Balancing period – Between T-1 hour
and outturn (T0
)
Within day re-trading – All market
actions taken between T-24 hours and
T-1 by various generators/portfolio
players to fine tune their positions (the
aim is to be balanced, therefore be
neither long nor short)
Balancing – All actions taken from gate
closure (T-1 hour) to outturn by the
Transmission System Operator (TSO)
to ensure supply meets demand at
all times (the TSO takes over from the
market and the objective is to balance
the system at outturn at the lowest
possible cost)
Output from wind and solar is inherently
variable, and is also difficult to forecast
accurately. As shown in Figure 1, this
substantial growth in intermittent renewable
generation will lead to a growth and variability
in forecast error – as wind and solar
generation cannot be forecasted perfectly.
As a result, greater flexibility will be needed
to manage the unpredictability and variability
of intermittent generation (wind and solar)
and new plants will be needed to replace the
existing thermal capacity which is being shut
down. How this flexibility will be provided
depends on the market and regulatory
structure available to incentivise new plants
and/or new players to enter the market.
Finally, the risk exposure for new and existing
intermittent generators will also change and
this risk needs to be understood.
During 2013, Pöyry ran a major multi-
client study to understand the risks and
opportunities associated with rising levels
of renewable penetration on the system for
all plant types. This was a major computer
modelling exercise; simulating the future
electricity system including the impact of
weather patterns and plant characteristics
such as ramp up and down rates. In addition,
the trading behaviour was simulated; focusing
on the fine tuning of trading positions in the
within-day period.
To understand the future of the electricity
system, we created a ‘Green System’ scenario
consistent with the Government’s aspirations
for renewable and low-carbon development.
This is a world where the 2020 renewables
targets are met and the carbon intensity
of generation in Great Britain falls from
480gCO2
/kWh currently to 100gCO2
/kWh
in 2030. Commodity prices remain broadly
flat, but the carbon price rises swiftly to £75/
tonne by 2030 in real terms. In addition,
the electricity market reform proposals are
modelled including a capacity payment which
delivers 3 hours of loss of load2
.
Figure 2 – Overview of Green System Scenario
1
Ensure that the supply of electricity meets consumer
demand at all times
2
Average number of hours in relation to interruption
of supply for customers in a year resulting in brown
outs (reduction in the quality of supply for customer)
or black outs (lights go out).
PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
4
Regulatory and market changes
underway affect the need and supply
of flexibility
The EU 2020 renewable targets are a
combined target for energy used in electricity,
heat and transport which will deliver a
significant level of wind and other intermittent
renewable generation in the UK, resulting in
a fundamental change in the workings of the
current electricity market. As wind and solar
become more dominant, greater flexibility will
be needed to manage the unpredictability and
variability of intermittent generation and new
plants will be needed to replace the existing
thermal capacity which is being shut down
through the LCPD and the IED closures.
In addition, a number of regulatory factors
affect the procurement and value of various
flexibility providers. These include the
introduction of the capacity payment which
may or may not value flexibility, the review of
the balancing market, the implementation of
the EU target model and therefore its effects
on intraday trading, as well as the cash out
reform which impacts on imbalance costs for
generators/demand providers.
Increasing wind penetration leads to
wind becoming the dominant source of
error on the system in the future
The increased deployment of wind and
other intermittent renewable generation
will introduce additional variability and
unpredictability to the GB electricity system.
Figure 3 shows the annual volumes by source
of imbalance between day ahead and outturn.
Historically, demand has been the dominant
source of forecast error, driven by errors in
temperature forecasts and varying use of
electricity by end-consumers. As a result
of the recent growth in wind capacity to
2013, the system level errors in wind output
forecasts were of a similar order of magnitude
to demand errors. However, by 2020, wind
becomes the dominant source of error
within-day in GB, with solar imbalances
also increasing over time. By 2035 the
total forecast error is 300% higher than in
2013. These greater volumes of imbalances
require a higher level of flexible capacity
on the system as well as generating more
re-trading of positions; traders refine their
positions when updated wind/solar forecasts
are available. Whilst it is possible that this
error could be reduced somewhat through
improvements in forecasting, this is by no
means certain (and hence has not been
assumed here).
Within-day flexibility is provided
primarily by CCGTs3
and pumped
storage4
Within day error is mitigated using flexible
sources of output such as CCGTs and pumped
storage, which are able to respond within the
required time frames. The increased volumes
of imbalances lead to a marked increase in
the amount of flexibility required in the GB
Figure 3 – Forecast error between day ahead and outturn
market. Figure 4 shows the annual volumes
of flexibility required.
The flexibility needed increases substantially
from 2013 to 2035, with an equal amount
of both upwards and downwards flexibility
required. Coal plants provide some flexibility
with their output in 2015 and 2020, but
the volumes decrease over the years with
the coal phase out and the introduction
of the carbon floor price. As a result,
CCGTs, pumped storage, and Demand Side
Response (DSR) provide the majority of the
flexibility requirements within-day. With
rising levels of renewable penetration, the
volume of flexibility provided by OCGT5
also
| PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
5
Figure 4 – Annual volumes of flexibility by technology within-day (TWh) in GB
3
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
4
Pumped storage is a type of hydroelectric power
generation used by some power plants for load
balancing. The method stores energy in the form of
potential energy of water, pumped from a lower
elevation reservoir to a higher elevation.
5
Open Cycle Gas Turbine
increases. As these plants are unlikely to be
scheduled to run at the day-ahead stage,
they generally provide positive flexibility
only. Nuclear, being less flexible, is unable
to contribute meaningfully to the flexibility
requirements.
PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
6
Outturn price volatility6
increases
much faster than day-ahead price
volatility – hence the most efficient
and flexible plant could take
advantage of this volatility
The wholesale price and any subsidy regime
available for various technologies are are key
determinants of the type of flexibility available
to manage the system.
Figure 5 shows the annual Time Weighted
Average (TWA) wholesale price projections
at the day-ahead stage as well as the price
volatility at the day ahead stage and at
outturn. There is a general trend of increasing
day-ahead expected TWA prices in the
future due primarily to the rising carbon
floor price. However, increasing levels of
renewable penetration and the introduction
of the capacity payment in Britain push the
prices down. As wind generates primarily
during periods when only the most efficient
thermal plants are running or when renewable
or other low carbon are at the margin, the
wholesale price signal which wind generators
have access to does not always include the full
carbon cost.
Day-ahead price volatility increases somewhat
over time, as a result of increasing wind
penetration – the classic day-night cycle
of prices is increasingly overlaid with a
high-low wind pattern. However, this effect
is dampened by the development of the
capacity mechanism. As a result of the
capacity mechanism, we assume that there
is less bidding above short-run marginal cost
by generators (due to more capacity being
on the system), which leads to flatter prices
than would otherwise have been the case.
However, as the Green System scenario
is assumed to include some loss of load
(3 hours), we can see an increase in price
volatility from 2025.
Outturn price volatility rises rapidly from
2020 and is much higher than day-ahead
price volatility. This is because the increase
in forecast error and the need to balance
positions leads to more expensive plant being
offered into the market at short notice. In
general, the more flexible plant (i.e. more
flexible technologies, and more flexible plant
within a particular class) could take advantage
of this price volatility as they are able to bid
in to provide the additional flexibility needed.
For those plants which are most flexible
within their class, the revenues which could
therefore be captured through this price
volatility could be higher than for other plants.
Figure 5 – Day-ahead annual TWA price as well as day ahead and within day price volatility
6
Price volatility is
defined as the absolute
difference between two
consecutive hourly
prices averaged out on
an annual basis
FIGURE 5
Green System
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
| PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
Within-dayrevenues
notsignificantfor
majorityofplants
7
Despite the increasing within-day
price volatility, within-day re-trading
revenues are low on average
compared to energy and capacity
payment revenues
Figure 6 shows the gross margins for CCGTs
in our modelled scenario. The chart shows
the breakdown of the gross margins between
the capacity payment, energy revenues and
additional revenues from within-day re-
trading.
Within day re-trading revenues on average are
therefore insignificant compared to expected
day-ahead energy market revenues and the
capacity payment. However, as above, the
most flexible plant within a certain class could
access a greater portion of the within day
revenues.
CCGT - 2015 New Entrant CCGT Existing (F)
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
30
60
90
GrossMargin(£/kW)
0.8
2.2
0.7
22.9
18.2
12.912.9
71.9
86.4
85.5
43.7
34.3
7.7
7.7
1.5
2.20.9
22.9
18.2
12.912.9
37.347.7
54.6
16.9
11.3
Within-day gross margin
Day-ahead gross margin
Capacity payment
Figure 6 – Gross margins for CCGTs
The value of within-day re-trading is small
compared to other components of revenues for
flexibility providers – the most flexible plants
within a particular class should however, be
able to tap into the increasing price volatility
between day ahead and outturn to generate
higher returns
Note: gross margin
defined as revenues
less all variable costs
(fuel, carbon and
variable other works
costs)
PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
8
There is a reduced market risk under
the FiT CfD compared to the RO; all
other components of the basis risk
are present under the two regimes.
The objective of the FiT CfD is to improve the
incentive to undertake low carbon generation
investments by increasing certainty for
investors, in particular in reducing/removing
the long term market risk for investors. The
FiT CfD effectively reduces the level of market
risk for the generator by providing a top-up
to the electricity revenues up to the level of a
pre-determined strike price.
We have examined how the risk for offtakers
and developers changes under the new FiT
CfD compared to the current Renewable
Obligation.
The risks faced by generators under the
FiT CfD are anticipated to be in some cases
similar to the ones under the RO regime.
Independent generators under the FiT CfD will
not be required to enter into a Power Purchase
Agreement (PPA), but we consider this will
be likely in order to manage their basis risk
exposure.
A PPA contract generally represents the
market value of a range of services. If an
independent generator attempted to finance
and trade their generation without a PPA,
then it would likely cost them more than
the discount offered by a PPA offtaker. The
advantages include:
•	 revenue underwritten by a bankable
balance sheet;
•	 guaranteed access to market; and
•	 trading and administration services, which
an offtaker is likely to be able to provide at a
lower cost than a small merchant
operator.
Figure 7 below compares the PPA discount
under a FiT CfD to the PPA discount under
the RO. The market price risk under the RO
leaves the generator open to price volatility,
however this is substantially reduced under
the FiT CfD. The within day re-trading risk,
imbalance costs and transaction costs are
common to both the RO PPA discount and the
FiT CfD PPA discount.
Figure 7 – PPA arrangements under the FiT CfD for a wind generator
The PPA discount in the case of the FIT CfD
therefore consists of the following:
•	 a FiT CfD basis risk which in turn
comprises:
•	 the within-day re-trading risk – any price
and volume risk accrued through
adjustments to the generator’s positions
through market actions up to gate closure
(T-1);
•	 the imbalance costs if the generator is
unable to meet its contractual positions and
is therefore either long or short at outturn;
•	 risk related to the possibility of negative
market prices which has been termed
negative day-ahead capture price risk.
While the FiT CfD provides a top-up to the
electricity revenues up to the level of the
strike price, the FiT CfD payment will not be
higher if the reference price is less than
zero, hence, a potential risk to both offtaker
and the generator; the likelihood of negative
reference prices increases with rising levels
of wind generation on the system; and
•	 transaction costs.
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
• CfD basis risk consists of within day re-trading risk and
imbalance costs.
• PPA discount likely to include the CfD basis risk and the
transaction costs.
• If day-ahead price falls below zero, the wind farm will not
receive more than the strike price for such periods, hence
negative day-ahead capture price risk
• Market price risk: RO day-ahead PPAs leave
generator exposed to day-ahead price volatility.
• PPA discount includes within day re-trading,
imbalance and transaction costs.
• Floor prices in some RO, PPAs partially mitigate
market price risk, but at a greater discount.
FiT CfDCurrent arrangements
CfDtop-upElectricity
Within-day re-trading risk
Imbalance costs
Transaction costs
PPAvalue
CfD PPA
discount
CfD basis
risk
ROCs
Day-ahead capture price
Within-day re-trading risk
Imbalance costs
Transaction costs
RO PPA
discount
Fee for floor price
Day-ahead wind cannibalisation risk
FlooredPPAvalue
Electricity
PPAvalue
CfD strike price
WITHIN-DAY STUDY 1
Possible negative day-
ahead capture price risk
| PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
FiTCfDbasisrisk
9
The Feed in Tariff Contract for Difference (FiT CfD) is intended to replace
the Renewable Obligation (RO) as the primary support mechanism for
large scale renewable/low carbon generators. The aim of the FiT CfD
being to support low carbon generation capacity in the UK.
The FiT CfD is a long-term contract which remunerates low carbon
generation at a defined strike price. The generator is expected to sell its
output into the wholesale electricity market and receive a portion of its
revenue from this. In addition, the generator may receive (or pay) top
up payments between a defined electricity market index (the market
reference price) and the strike price.
If the wholesale market reference price is below the contract strike price,
then the generator receives a difference payment and if the reference
price is above the strike price, the generator makes the difference
payment.
FiT CfD EXPLAINED:
PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
10
The extent of discount offered to a generator
by a counterparty with respect to the PPA is
a significant factor in determining whether
any particular investment goes ahead or not,
with discounts of 9% to 20% common in the
market today under the RO. In the Green
System scenario, the within-day re-trading
cost will rise with increasing levels of wind
penetration as will the negative day-ahead
capture price risk and imbalance costs. While
the FiT CfD basis risk will increase in the
future, the market price risk is still likely to be
lower than under the RO.
Figure 8 shows how the various components
of the PPA (within day re-trading, negative
day ahead capture price risk and imbalance
costs) and therefore costs to the generator or
the offtaker rise in the future for an individual
wind farm. This is based on the results of
our analysis as well as derived from Ofgem’s
draft decision paper on Electricity Balancing
Significant Code Review.
It can be seen that all quantifiable
components of the CFD price risk are due
to increase over time with rising penetration
of renewable energy production. We have,
however, not quantified the transaction costs
– generators should take account of PPA
transaction costs in addition to the quantified
costs already mentioned.
We therefore anticipate offtakers to take
account of those rising components
when determining future PPA discounts.
Transaction costs in the future are likely to
reflect the same factors as in today’s PPAs:
the external and internal costs of taking on
the PPA as well as the offtaker’s perception
of future regulatory and market risks. We
also anticipate generators to take into
account those risks and expected costs when
negotiating their FiT CfD contracts with the
Government.
Other Factors affecting ppa discounts
In addition to the changes anticipated in the
quantified aspects of the PPA discounts, the
changing market and regulatory landscape
in the UK is also likely to change the risk
premium and the risk perception which
offtakers build into the transaction costs as
part of the PPA discount.
Figure 8 7
– FiT CfD basis risk and negative day ahead capture price risk – Green System
7
The estimated imbalance costs are derived from
Ofgem’s SCR draft decision paper. We have tailored
the value to our methodology of calculating the
within-day re-trading risk. There is some uncertainty
in those values as there might still be some overlap
between Ofgem’s figures and Poyry’s. In addition,
consideration of DSR, unsupported wind on the
system and generation mix will affect these numbers
in the future.
Some of the regulatory risk is uncertain. For
example, the Future Trading Arrangements
project Arrangements project was initiated
by Ofgem in May 2013, the aim of which is
to agree a high level design and roadmap
for the arrangements which govern trading
designs in GB. These trading arrangements
are a long term vision which is likely to allow
consideration of the various network codes
being created by ENTSO-E (The European
Network of Transmission System Operators
for Electricity). These changes could affect
the longer term contracting strategies for both
PPA providers and generators.
Current PPA discounts
are a poor guide to
future PPA discounts
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2013 (Up to June 2013)
2020
2030
Within-day re-trading risk (Pöyry estimate)
Imbalance costs (Estimate derived from Ofgem
individual wind farms estimate)
Negative day ahead capture price risk (Pöyry estimate)
Negative day-
ahead capture
price risk (Pöyry)
Imbalance costs (Estimate
derived from Ofgem's
SCR analysis on
individual wind farms)
£/MWh (real 2012)
Within-Day
retrading risk
(Poyry Estimate)
| PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
TheFiTCfDbasisrisk
increaseswithrisinglevels
ofrenewablepenetration
11
Ofgem’s Significant Code Review which was
published in July 2013 proposed fundamental
changes to the cash out regime which are
likely to be more punitive for generators and
offtakers in an imbalance position. The
Significant Code Review also changes the risk
whether a generator is part of a portfolio or is
an independent player.
These regulatory changes could therefore
alter the risk premium in PPA contracts.
Now 2030
Risk Risk
PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
12
Our analysis has shown that increasing
penetration of renewable generation on the
system leads to rising levels of imbalances.
There is a resulting increase in flexibility
needed to manage the system. This increase
in flexibility requirements translates to
additional revenues for flexible plants on a
within-day basis, but these are not significant
for the majority of plants when compared to
other sources of revenue.
In relation to renewable generators, our
assessment shows that the move from
the RO to the FiT CFD will result in some
improvement in overall risk (due to the
substantial removal of market price risk).
However this will be offset in the longer term
– with the CFD basis risk and the negative day
ahead capture price risk increasing alongside
the growth in renewables penetration.
| PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
Conclusions
13
ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS
As part of this multi-client study, Pöyry also modelled a further two scenarios and three sensitivities.
We modelled a scenario which assumed a capacity payment with no loss of load (compared to 3 hours LOLE in the Green System scenario).
The effect of this would be to further dampen wholesale prices compared to a world with a less effective capacity mechanism, as there would
be additional capacity available in the system and therefore fewer spikes in prices.
Another scenario simulated the effects of a less ambitious renewable target for 2020 and beyond which delivered higher average annual
wholesale prices compared to the worlds with more ambitious targets.
One of the sensitivities included increasing flexibility in the form of increased demand response and pump storage as well as different ramp
rates etc. (again, compared to the central case). A world where more flexibility is available reduces the number of low and negative price
periods which will be correlated with the highest levels of wind output. In addition, additional flexibility will tend to reduce prices at peak when
demand is highest. The TWA base load price may go up but the demand weighted customer price will be lower.
Across all scenarios and sensitivities, there is a substantial increase in the requirements for within-day re-trading, driven primarily by wind
generation.
The capacity payments to generators are lowest in the Green System scenario with revenues from the energy market much higher than all
other scenarios and sensitivities due to the price spikes caused by load loss and a tighter system. In addition, the capture prices for wind are
higher in this world as the market needs to rely on higher prices overall to deliver enough supply to meet demand.
Finally, we also ran a “Low Flexibility” sensitivity which resulted in greater risk for wind generators. The “negative day-ahead capture price
risk” is especially high as less flexibility (e.g. storage) is available in the system leading to more negative price periods.
PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
14
1
UKShaleGas-
wherearewe
now?
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Fromambition
toreality?
Decarbonisation
oftheEuropean
electricitysector
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Ed Miliband, Leader of the UK’s Labour Party, has proposed to freeze retail energy
prices for 20 months should he win the 2015 election. This type of pronouncement
and the uncertainty that it brings threatens to unpick the fabric of the electricity
industry, and damage our ability to achieve renewables and decarbonisation targets.
EuropeanEnergyMarkets:
Pricefreeze,trustandpoliticalcapital
PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
SEPTEMBER 2013
There is a proper role for controlling prices
in electricity retail markets. Competition will
benefit consumers only if certain
preconditions are met. Customers must have
good information on competing tariffs and
must face (or perceive) low costs to switch
supplier. Economies of scale and barriers to
entry (including ‘brand power’) need to be
eroded. These are all legitimate targets of
market intervention and education campaigns
aimed at boosting the power of competition,
and price regulation can properly remain in
place until competition takes hold.
However, the form of price intervention
is delicate, and clumsy treatment erodes
the trust which allows investment to take
place. The accepted form of price regulation
is through an independent (non-political)
regulator, which is isolated from the short
term needs of populist democracy. This
isolation is necessary because the electricity
industry relies on long term investments,
and a continual short-term approach would
prove costly in the long term. The proper
process for price regulation requires the
companies to be treated fairly, including a
well-researched understanding of the base
cost of electricity supply, and safety valves in
case of unexpected events.
“The need for trust has never been higher.
Europe’s political classes continually repeat
their ambitions to decarbonise the economy and
the power sector, but the poorly coordinated
and costly subsidy regimes that have delivered
these aims so far have cost untold €billions”
Howcan
small-scale
LNGhelpgrow
theEuropean
gasmarket?
Pöyry Point of View:
Being resource smart
Isbiocoal
abioenergy
gamechanger?
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Howwill
Lancashireshale
gasimpactthe
GBenergy
market?
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Europe’s
energyfuture–
theshapeof
thebeast
Pulpmarket
intransition
Pöyry Point of View:
Being resource smart
Paperbusiness
inmature
markets
–istherehope?
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Pulp,Paperand
Packaging:
fromlocal
toglobal
Pöyry Point of View:
SHAPinG tHe neXt fUtUre
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Howwill
intermittency
changeEurope’s
gasmarkets?
GlobalDiet:
Amenuwith
radicalbusiness
consequences
Pöyry Point of View:
Being resource smart
Survival
Innovationin
theWood
Products
Industry
Pöyry Point of View:
Being resource smart
Recoveredpaper:
Thefibresolution
understress
Pöyry Point of View:
Being resource smart
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
Areyoureadyfor
theAgeof
Confluence?
1
Thevalueof
within-day
flexibilityinthe
GBelectricity
market
Pöyry Point of View:
ShaPing the next future
| PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
PöyryPointofView
15
Staying on top of your game means keeping
up with the latest thinking, trends and
developments. We know that this can
sometimes be tough as the pace of change
continues...
At Pöyry, we encourage our global network
of experts to actively contribute to the debate
- generating fresh insight and challenging
the status quo. The Pöyry Point of View is
our practical, accessible and issues-based
approach to sharing our latest thinking.
We invite you to take a look – please let us
know your thoughts.
Copyright © 2014 Pöyry Management Consulting Oy
All rights are reserved to Pöyry Management Consulting Oy
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form without the
prior written permission of Pöyry Management Consulting Oy (“Pöyry”).
Disclaimer
While Pöyry considers that the information and opinions given in this publication are sound, all parties must rely
upon their own skill and judgement when making use of it. This publication is partly based on information that is
not within Pöyry’s control. Therefore, Pöyry does not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied,
as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication. Pöyry expressly disclaims
any and all liability arising out of or relating to the use of this publication.
This publication contains projections which are based on assumptions subjected to uncertainties and contingen-
cies. Because of the subjective judgements and inherent uncertainties of projections, and because events
frequently do not occur as expected, there can be no assurance that the projections contained herein will be
realised and actual results may be different from projected results. Hence the projections supplied are not to be
regarded as firm predictions of the future, but rather as illustrations of what might happen.
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PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
16
Photos: colourbox.com
Pöyry Management Consulting
www.poyry.com
Pöyry is an international consulting and engineering company. We serve clients globally
across the energy and industrial sectors and locally in our core markets. We deliver strategic
advisory and engineering services, underpinned by strong project implementation capability
and expertise. Our focus sectors are power generation, transmission & distribution, forest
industry, chemicals & biorefining, mining & metals, transportation, water and real estate
sectors. Pöyry has an extensive local office network employing about 6,500 experts.
AUSTRALIA
Melbourne
Phone: +61 3 9863 3700
AUSTRIA
Vienna
Phone: +43 1 6411 800
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Phone: +55 41 3252 7665
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CHINA
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FINLAND
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FRANCE
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GERMANY
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Phone: +49 211 175 2380
Munich
Phone: +49 89 954771 62
INDONESIA
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ITALY
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Phone: +39 02 3659 6900
NEW ZEALAND
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Phone: +64 9 918 1100
NORWAY
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RUSSIA
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Phone: +7 495 937 5257
SINGAPORE
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SPAIN
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Phone: +34 615 457 290
SWEDEN
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Phone: +46 8 528 01200
SWITZERLAND
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Phone: +41 44 288 9090
THAILAND
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Phone: +66 2 657 1000
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
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Phone: +971 4 6069 500
UNITED KINGDOM
London
Phone: +44 207 932 8200
Oxford
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USA
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Phone: +1 404 351 5707
New York
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PN00162014/02V2

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The value of within-day flexibility in the GB electricity market

  • 2. 2 The electricity system in the UK is facing unprecedented change. As a result of the European 2020 renewable energy targets, the UK is planning to build approximately 15 GW of new wind generation (above current levels) by 2020, and the aspiration of the government is to continue the development of low carbon generation beyond then, with a likely continued growth in wind generation, as well as solar. In addition, the closure of thermal plants due to the EU Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) and the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) means that flexible plants which could have been used to balance1 the system will no longer be available. The integration of renewable generation on the GB electricity system leads to a greater need for flexibility, whilst risks for wind generators increase Figure 1 – Understanding the risks associated with rising levels of renewables Growth in error Growth in renewables Risk Exposure more flexibility needed | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW Introduction
  • 3. 3 Terminology uncovered: Within day period – Between day ahead (T-24 hours) and gate closure (T-1) Balancing period – Between T-1 hour and outturn (T0 ) Within day re-trading – All market actions taken between T-24 hours and T-1 by various generators/portfolio players to fine tune their positions (the aim is to be balanced, therefore be neither long nor short) Balancing – All actions taken from gate closure (T-1 hour) to outturn by the Transmission System Operator (TSO) to ensure supply meets demand at all times (the TSO takes over from the market and the objective is to balance the system at outturn at the lowest possible cost) Output from wind and solar is inherently variable, and is also difficult to forecast accurately. As shown in Figure 1, this substantial growth in intermittent renewable generation will lead to a growth and variability in forecast error – as wind and solar generation cannot be forecasted perfectly. As a result, greater flexibility will be needed to manage the unpredictability and variability of intermittent generation (wind and solar) and new plants will be needed to replace the existing thermal capacity which is being shut down. How this flexibility will be provided depends on the market and regulatory structure available to incentivise new plants and/or new players to enter the market. Finally, the risk exposure for new and existing intermittent generators will also change and this risk needs to be understood. During 2013, Pöyry ran a major multi- client study to understand the risks and opportunities associated with rising levels of renewable penetration on the system for all plant types. This was a major computer modelling exercise; simulating the future electricity system including the impact of weather patterns and plant characteristics such as ramp up and down rates. In addition, the trading behaviour was simulated; focusing on the fine tuning of trading positions in the within-day period. To understand the future of the electricity system, we created a ‘Green System’ scenario consistent with the Government’s aspirations for renewable and low-carbon development. This is a world where the 2020 renewables targets are met and the carbon intensity of generation in Great Britain falls from 480gCO2 /kWh currently to 100gCO2 /kWh in 2030. Commodity prices remain broadly flat, but the carbon price rises swiftly to £75/ tonne by 2030 in real terms. In addition, the electricity market reform proposals are modelled including a capacity payment which delivers 3 hours of loss of load2 . Figure 2 – Overview of Green System Scenario 1 Ensure that the supply of electricity meets consumer demand at all times 2 Average number of hours in relation to interruption of supply for customers in a year resulting in brown outs (reduction in the quality of supply for customer) or black outs (lights go out). PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
  • 4. 4 Regulatory and market changes underway affect the need and supply of flexibility The EU 2020 renewable targets are a combined target for energy used in electricity, heat and transport which will deliver a significant level of wind and other intermittent renewable generation in the UK, resulting in a fundamental change in the workings of the current electricity market. As wind and solar become more dominant, greater flexibility will be needed to manage the unpredictability and variability of intermittent generation and new plants will be needed to replace the existing thermal capacity which is being shut down through the LCPD and the IED closures. In addition, a number of regulatory factors affect the procurement and value of various flexibility providers. These include the introduction of the capacity payment which may or may not value flexibility, the review of the balancing market, the implementation of the EU target model and therefore its effects on intraday trading, as well as the cash out reform which impacts on imbalance costs for generators/demand providers. Increasing wind penetration leads to wind becoming the dominant source of error on the system in the future The increased deployment of wind and other intermittent renewable generation will introduce additional variability and unpredictability to the GB electricity system. Figure 3 shows the annual volumes by source of imbalance between day ahead and outturn. Historically, demand has been the dominant source of forecast error, driven by errors in temperature forecasts and varying use of electricity by end-consumers. As a result of the recent growth in wind capacity to 2013, the system level errors in wind output forecasts were of a similar order of magnitude to demand errors. However, by 2020, wind becomes the dominant source of error within-day in GB, with solar imbalances also increasing over time. By 2035 the total forecast error is 300% higher than in 2013. These greater volumes of imbalances require a higher level of flexible capacity on the system as well as generating more re-trading of positions; traders refine their positions when updated wind/solar forecasts are available. Whilst it is possible that this error could be reduced somewhat through improvements in forecasting, this is by no means certain (and hence has not been assumed here). Within-day flexibility is provided primarily by CCGTs3 and pumped storage4 Within day error is mitigated using flexible sources of output such as CCGTs and pumped storage, which are able to respond within the required time frames. The increased volumes of imbalances lead to a marked increase in the amount of flexibility required in the GB Figure 3 – Forecast error between day ahead and outturn market. Figure 4 shows the annual volumes of flexibility required. The flexibility needed increases substantially from 2013 to 2035, with an equal amount of both upwards and downwards flexibility required. Coal plants provide some flexibility with their output in 2015 and 2020, but the volumes decrease over the years with the coal phase out and the introduction of the carbon floor price. As a result, CCGTs, pumped storage, and Demand Side Response (DSR) provide the majority of the flexibility requirements within-day. With rising levels of renewable penetration, the volume of flexibility provided by OCGT5 also | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
  • 5. 5 Figure 4 – Annual volumes of flexibility by technology within-day (TWh) in GB 3 Combined Cycle Gas Turbine 4 Pumped storage is a type of hydroelectric power generation used by some power plants for load balancing. The method stores energy in the form of potential energy of water, pumped from a lower elevation reservoir to a higher elevation. 5 Open Cycle Gas Turbine increases. As these plants are unlikely to be scheduled to run at the day-ahead stage, they generally provide positive flexibility only. Nuclear, being less flexible, is unable to contribute meaningfully to the flexibility requirements. PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
  • 6. 6 Outturn price volatility6 increases much faster than day-ahead price volatility – hence the most efficient and flexible plant could take advantage of this volatility The wholesale price and any subsidy regime available for various technologies are are key determinants of the type of flexibility available to manage the system. Figure 5 shows the annual Time Weighted Average (TWA) wholesale price projections at the day-ahead stage as well as the price volatility at the day ahead stage and at outturn. There is a general trend of increasing day-ahead expected TWA prices in the future due primarily to the rising carbon floor price. However, increasing levels of renewable penetration and the introduction of the capacity payment in Britain push the prices down. As wind generates primarily during periods when only the most efficient thermal plants are running or when renewable or other low carbon are at the margin, the wholesale price signal which wind generators have access to does not always include the full carbon cost. Day-ahead price volatility increases somewhat over time, as a result of increasing wind penetration – the classic day-night cycle of prices is increasingly overlaid with a high-low wind pattern. However, this effect is dampened by the development of the capacity mechanism. As a result of the capacity mechanism, we assume that there is less bidding above short-run marginal cost by generators (due to more capacity being on the system), which leads to flatter prices than would otherwise have been the case. However, as the Green System scenario is assumed to include some loss of load (3 hours), we can see an increase in price volatility from 2025. Outturn price volatility rises rapidly from 2020 and is much higher than day-ahead price volatility. This is because the increase in forecast error and the need to balance positions leads to more expensive plant being offered into the market at short notice. In general, the more flexible plant (i.e. more flexible technologies, and more flexible plant within a particular class) could take advantage of this price volatility as they are able to bid in to provide the additional flexibility needed. For those plants which are most flexible within their class, the revenues which could therefore be captured through this price volatility could be higher than for other plants. Figure 5 – Day-ahead annual TWA price as well as day ahead and within day price volatility 6 Price volatility is defined as the absolute difference between two consecutive hourly prices averaged out on an annual basis FIGURE 5 Green System 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW Within-dayrevenues notsignificantfor majorityofplants
  • 7. 7 Despite the increasing within-day price volatility, within-day re-trading revenues are low on average compared to energy and capacity payment revenues Figure 6 shows the gross margins for CCGTs in our modelled scenario. The chart shows the breakdown of the gross margins between the capacity payment, energy revenues and additional revenues from within-day re- trading. Within day re-trading revenues on average are therefore insignificant compared to expected day-ahead energy market revenues and the capacity payment. However, as above, the most flexible plant within a certain class could access a greater portion of the within day revenues. CCGT - 2015 New Entrant CCGT Existing (F) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 30 60 90 GrossMargin(£/kW) 0.8 2.2 0.7 22.9 18.2 12.912.9 71.9 86.4 85.5 43.7 34.3 7.7 7.7 1.5 2.20.9 22.9 18.2 12.912.9 37.347.7 54.6 16.9 11.3 Within-day gross margin Day-ahead gross margin Capacity payment Figure 6 – Gross margins for CCGTs The value of within-day re-trading is small compared to other components of revenues for flexibility providers – the most flexible plants within a particular class should however, be able to tap into the increasing price volatility between day ahead and outturn to generate higher returns Note: gross margin defined as revenues less all variable costs (fuel, carbon and variable other works costs) PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
  • 8. 8 There is a reduced market risk under the FiT CfD compared to the RO; all other components of the basis risk are present under the two regimes. The objective of the FiT CfD is to improve the incentive to undertake low carbon generation investments by increasing certainty for investors, in particular in reducing/removing the long term market risk for investors. The FiT CfD effectively reduces the level of market risk for the generator by providing a top-up to the electricity revenues up to the level of a pre-determined strike price. We have examined how the risk for offtakers and developers changes under the new FiT CfD compared to the current Renewable Obligation. The risks faced by generators under the FiT CfD are anticipated to be in some cases similar to the ones under the RO regime. Independent generators under the FiT CfD will not be required to enter into a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), but we consider this will be likely in order to manage their basis risk exposure. A PPA contract generally represents the market value of a range of services. If an independent generator attempted to finance and trade their generation without a PPA, then it would likely cost them more than the discount offered by a PPA offtaker. The advantages include: • revenue underwritten by a bankable balance sheet; • guaranteed access to market; and • trading and administration services, which an offtaker is likely to be able to provide at a lower cost than a small merchant operator. Figure 7 below compares the PPA discount under a FiT CfD to the PPA discount under the RO. The market price risk under the RO leaves the generator open to price volatility, however this is substantially reduced under the FiT CfD. The within day re-trading risk, imbalance costs and transaction costs are common to both the RO PPA discount and the FiT CfD PPA discount. Figure 7 – PPA arrangements under the FiT CfD for a wind generator The PPA discount in the case of the FIT CfD therefore consists of the following: • a FiT CfD basis risk which in turn comprises: • the within-day re-trading risk – any price and volume risk accrued through adjustments to the generator’s positions through market actions up to gate closure (T-1); • the imbalance costs if the generator is unable to meet its contractual positions and is therefore either long or short at outturn; • risk related to the possibility of negative market prices which has been termed negative day-ahead capture price risk. While the FiT CfD provides a top-up to the electricity revenues up to the level of the strike price, the FiT CfD payment will not be higher if the reference price is less than zero, hence, a potential risk to both offtaker and the generator; the likelihood of negative reference prices increases with rising levels of wind generation on the system; and • transaction costs. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY • CfD basis risk consists of within day re-trading risk and imbalance costs. • PPA discount likely to include the CfD basis risk and the transaction costs. • If day-ahead price falls below zero, the wind farm will not receive more than the strike price for such periods, hence negative day-ahead capture price risk • Market price risk: RO day-ahead PPAs leave generator exposed to day-ahead price volatility. • PPA discount includes within day re-trading, imbalance and transaction costs. • Floor prices in some RO, PPAs partially mitigate market price risk, but at a greater discount. FiT CfDCurrent arrangements CfDtop-upElectricity Within-day re-trading risk Imbalance costs Transaction costs PPAvalue CfD PPA discount CfD basis risk ROCs Day-ahead capture price Within-day re-trading risk Imbalance costs Transaction costs RO PPA discount Fee for floor price Day-ahead wind cannibalisation risk FlooredPPAvalue Electricity PPAvalue CfD strike price WITHIN-DAY STUDY 1 Possible negative day- ahead capture price risk | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW FiTCfDbasisrisk
  • 9. 9 The Feed in Tariff Contract for Difference (FiT CfD) is intended to replace the Renewable Obligation (RO) as the primary support mechanism for large scale renewable/low carbon generators. The aim of the FiT CfD being to support low carbon generation capacity in the UK. The FiT CfD is a long-term contract which remunerates low carbon generation at a defined strike price. The generator is expected to sell its output into the wholesale electricity market and receive a portion of its revenue from this. In addition, the generator may receive (or pay) top up payments between a defined electricity market index (the market reference price) and the strike price. If the wholesale market reference price is below the contract strike price, then the generator receives a difference payment and if the reference price is above the strike price, the generator makes the difference payment. FiT CfD EXPLAINED: PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
  • 10. 10 The extent of discount offered to a generator by a counterparty with respect to the PPA is a significant factor in determining whether any particular investment goes ahead or not, with discounts of 9% to 20% common in the market today under the RO. In the Green System scenario, the within-day re-trading cost will rise with increasing levels of wind penetration as will the negative day-ahead capture price risk and imbalance costs. While the FiT CfD basis risk will increase in the future, the market price risk is still likely to be lower than under the RO. Figure 8 shows how the various components of the PPA (within day re-trading, negative day ahead capture price risk and imbalance costs) and therefore costs to the generator or the offtaker rise in the future for an individual wind farm. This is based on the results of our analysis as well as derived from Ofgem’s draft decision paper on Electricity Balancing Significant Code Review. It can be seen that all quantifiable components of the CFD price risk are due to increase over time with rising penetration of renewable energy production. We have, however, not quantified the transaction costs – generators should take account of PPA transaction costs in addition to the quantified costs already mentioned. We therefore anticipate offtakers to take account of those rising components when determining future PPA discounts. Transaction costs in the future are likely to reflect the same factors as in today’s PPAs: the external and internal costs of taking on the PPA as well as the offtaker’s perception of future regulatory and market risks. We also anticipate generators to take into account those risks and expected costs when negotiating their FiT CfD contracts with the Government. Other Factors affecting ppa discounts In addition to the changes anticipated in the quantified aspects of the PPA discounts, the changing market and regulatory landscape in the UK is also likely to change the risk premium and the risk perception which offtakers build into the transaction costs as part of the PPA discount. Figure 8 7 – FiT CfD basis risk and negative day ahead capture price risk – Green System 7 The estimated imbalance costs are derived from Ofgem’s SCR draft decision paper. We have tailored the value to our methodology of calculating the within-day re-trading risk. There is some uncertainty in those values as there might still be some overlap between Ofgem’s figures and Poyry’s. In addition, consideration of DSR, unsupported wind on the system and generation mix will affect these numbers in the future. Some of the regulatory risk is uncertain. For example, the Future Trading Arrangements project Arrangements project was initiated by Ofgem in May 2013, the aim of which is to agree a high level design and roadmap for the arrangements which govern trading designs in GB. These trading arrangements are a long term vision which is likely to allow consideration of the various network codes being created by ENTSO-E (The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity). These changes could affect the longer term contracting strategies for both PPA providers and generators. Current PPA discounts are a poor guide to future PPA discounts 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2013 (Up to June 2013) 2020 2030 Within-day re-trading risk (Pöyry estimate) Imbalance costs (Estimate derived from Ofgem individual wind farms estimate) Negative day ahead capture price risk (Pöyry estimate) Negative day- ahead capture price risk (Pöyry) Imbalance costs (Estimate derived from Ofgem's SCR analysis on individual wind farms) £/MWh (real 2012) Within-Day retrading risk (Poyry Estimate) | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW TheFiTCfDbasisrisk increaseswithrisinglevels ofrenewablepenetration
  • 11. 11 Ofgem’s Significant Code Review which was published in July 2013 proposed fundamental changes to the cash out regime which are likely to be more punitive for generators and offtakers in an imbalance position. The Significant Code Review also changes the risk whether a generator is part of a portfolio or is an independent player. These regulatory changes could therefore alter the risk premium in PPA contracts. Now 2030 Risk Risk PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
  • 12. 12 Our analysis has shown that increasing penetration of renewable generation on the system leads to rising levels of imbalances. There is a resulting increase in flexibility needed to manage the system. This increase in flexibility requirements translates to additional revenues for flexible plants on a within-day basis, but these are not significant for the majority of plants when compared to other sources of revenue. In relation to renewable generators, our assessment shows that the move from the RO to the FiT CFD will result in some improvement in overall risk (due to the substantial removal of market price risk). However this will be offset in the longer term – with the CFD basis risk and the negative day ahead capture price risk increasing alongside the growth in renewables penetration. | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW Conclusions
  • 13. 13 ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS As part of this multi-client study, Pöyry also modelled a further two scenarios and three sensitivities. We modelled a scenario which assumed a capacity payment with no loss of load (compared to 3 hours LOLE in the Green System scenario). The effect of this would be to further dampen wholesale prices compared to a world with a less effective capacity mechanism, as there would be additional capacity available in the system and therefore fewer spikes in prices. Another scenario simulated the effects of a less ambitious renewable target for 2020 and beyond which delivered higher average annual wholesale prices compared to the worlds with more ambitious targets. One of the sensitivities included increasing flexibility in the form of increased demand response and pump storage as well as different ramp rates etc. (again, compared to the central case). A world where more flexibility is available reduces the number of low and negative price periods which will be correlated with the highest levels of wind output. In addition, additional flexibility will tend to reduce prices at peak when demand is highest. The TWA base load price may go up but the demand weighted customer price will be lower. Across all scenarios and sensitivities, there is a substantial increase in the requirements for within-day re-trading, driven primarily by wind generation. The capacity payments to generators are lowest in the Green System scenario with revenues from the energy market much higher than all other scenarios and sensitivities due to the price spikes caused by load loss and a tighter system. In addition, the capture prices for wind are higher in this world as the market needs to rely on higher prices overall to deliver enough supply to meet demand. Finally, we also ran a “Low Flexibility” sensitivity which resulted in greater risk for wind generators. The “negative day-ahead capture price risk” is especially high as less flexibility (e.g. storage) is available in the system leading to more negative price periods. PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
  • 14. 14 1 UKShaleGas- wherearewe now? Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Fromambition toreality? Decarbonisation oftheEuropean electricitysector Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Ed Miliband, Leader of the UK’s Labour Party, has proposed to freeze retail energy prices for 20 months should he win the 2015 election. This type of pronouncement and the uncertainty that it brings threatens to unpick the fabric of the electricity industry, and damage our ability to achieve renewables and decarbonisation targets. EuropeanEnergyMarkets: Pricefreeze,trustandpoliticalcapital PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW SEPTEMBER 2013 There is a proper role for controlling prices in electricity retail markets. Competition will benefit consumers only if certain preconditions are met. Customers must have good information on competing tariffs and must face (or perceive) low costs to switch supplier. Economies of scale and barriers to entry (including ‘brand power’) need to be eroded. These are all legitimate targets of market intervention and education campaigns aimed at boosting the power of competition, and price regulation can properly remain in place until competition takes hold. However, the form of price intervention is delicate, and clumsy treatment erodes the trust which allows investment to take place. The accepted form of price regulation is through an independent (non-political) regulator, which is isolated from the short term needs of populist democracy. This isolation is necessary because the electricity industry relies on long term investments, and a continual short-term approach would prove costly in the long term. The proper process for price regulation requires the companies to be treated fairly, including a well-researched understanding of the base cost of electricity supply, and safety valves in case of unexpected events. “The need for trust has never been higher. Europe’s political classes continually repeat their ambitions to decarbonise the economy and the power sector, but the poorly coordinated and costly subsidy regimes that have delivered these aims so far have cost untold €billions” Howcan small-scale LNGhelpgrow theEuropean gasmarket? Pöyry Point of View: Being resource smart Isbiocoal abioenergy gamechanger? Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Howwill Lancashireshale gasimpactthe GBenergy market? Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Europe’s energyfuture– theshapeof thebeast Pulpmarket intransition Pöyry Point of View: Being resource smart Paperbusiness inmature markets –istherehope? Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Pulp,Paperand Packaging: fromlocal toglobal Pöyry Point of View: SHAPinG tHe neXt fUtUre Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Howwill intermittency changeEurope’s gasmarkets? GlobalDiet: Amenuwith radicalbusiness consequences Pöyry Point of View: Being resource smart Survival Innovationin theWood Products Industry Pöyry Point of View: Being resource smart Recoveredpaper: Thefibresolution understress Pöyry Point of View: Being resource smart Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future Areyoureadyfor theAgeof Confluence? 1 Thevalueof within-day flexibilityinthe GBelectricity market Pöyry Point of View: ShaPing the next future | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW PöyryPointofView
  • 15. 15 Staying on top of your game means keeping up with the latest thinking, trends and developments. We know that this can sometimes be tough as the pace of change continues... At Pöyry, we encourage our global network of experts to actively contribute to the debate - generating fresh insight and challenging the status quo. The Pöyry Point of View is our practical, accessible and issues-based approach to sharing our latest thinking. We invite you to take a look – please let us know your thoughts. Copyright © 2014 Pöyry Management Consulting Oy All rights are reserved to Pöyry Management Consulting Oy No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form without the prior written permission of Pöyry Management Consulting Oy (“Pöyry”). Disclaimer While Pöyry considers that the information and opinions given in this publication are sound, all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgement when making use of it. This publication is partly based on information that is not within Pöyry’s control. Therefore, Pöyry does not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication. Pöyry expressly disclaims any and all liability arising out of or relating to the use of this publication. This publication contains projections which are based on assumptions subjected to uncertainties and contingen- cies. Because of the subjective judgements and inherent uncertainties of projections, and because events frequently do not occur as expected, there can be no assurance that the projections contained herein will be realised and actual results may be different from projected results. Hence the projections supplied are not to be regarded as firm predictions of the future, but rather as illustrations of what might happen. R www.linkedin.com/ company/Poyry @PoyryPlc #PoyryPOV www.youtube.com/ PoyryPlc www.facebook.com/ PoyryPlc Join the debate PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
  • 16. 16 Photos: colourbox.com Pöyry Management Consulting www.poyry.com Pöyry is an international consulting and engineering company. We serve clients globally across the energy and industrial sectors and locally in our core markets. We deliver strategic advisory and engineering services, underpinned by strong project implementation capability and expertise. Our focus sectors are power generation, transmission & distribution, forest industry, chemicals & biorefining, mining & metals, transportation, water and real estate sectors. Pöyry has an extensive local office network employing about 6,500 experts. AUSTRALIA Melbourne Phone: +61 3 9863 3700 AUSTRIA Vienna Phone: +43 1 6411 800 BRAZIL Curitiba Phone: +55 41 3252 7665 São Paulo Phone: +55 11 5187 5555 CHINA Shanghai Phone: +86 21 6115 9660 FINLAND Helsinki Phone: +358 10 3311 FRANCE Paris Phone: +33 156 88 2710 GERMANY Düsseldorf Phone: +49 211 175 2380 Munich Phone: +49 89 954771 62 INDONESIA Jakarta Phone: +62 21 527 5552 ITALY Milano Phone: +39 02 3659 6900 NEW ZEALAND Auckland Phone: +64 9 918 1100 NORWAY Oslo Phone: +47 4540 5000 RUSSIA Moscow Phone: +7 495 937 5257 SINGAPORE Phone: +65 6733 3331 SPAIN Madrid Phone: +34 615 457 290 SWEDEN Stockholm Phone: +46 8 528 01200 SWITZERLAND Zurich Phone: +41 44 288 9090 THAILAND Bangkok Phone: +66 2 657 1000 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Dubai Phone: +971 4 6069 500 UNITED KINGDOM London Phone: +44 207 932 8200 Oxford Phone: +44 1865 722 660 USA Atlanta Phone: +1 404 351 5707 New York Phone: +1 646 651 1547 PN00162014/02V2