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Africa GreenCo(Africa Green Regional Energy: Efficient, New and Creditworthy Offtaker
Copyright © 2010 by Africa GreenCo.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or
by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the
prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical
reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission
requests, write to the publisher, addressed “Attention: Permissions Coordinator,”
at the address below.
Ana Hajduka
Africa GreenCo Founder & CEO
Email: ana.hajduka@africagreenco.com
Mob: +447789204363
Abidjan, PIDA Week November 2015
Mission
Benefit
Sectors
Africa GreenCo’s mission is to promote the development of a public-private partnership in the form of an
independent, creditworthy, renewable energy offtaker/trader of power, acting at a regional level in
Sub-Saharan Africa to purchase electricity from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and sell via the power
pools. From a financial stand-point, it will use its capital base to enhance off-taker creditworthiness. From
an operations stand-point, it will coordinate government decision making, facilitate interconnection and
increase power trading.
Regional and interregional power sector integration is a prerequisite for larger and more cost-effective hydro-
electric, geothermal, wind, solar and biomass projects, and will savebillions of dollars in development, opera-
tion and maintnance costs, enabling the expansionof energy access in Sub-Saharan Africa.This single-point
power purchase agreement (PPA) counterparty would streamline development, mitigate offtake and credit
risk,and catalyze private sector finance for large scale cross border renewable energy development.
Renewable and sustainable energy
Feasibility study
Current status
Grant funding provided by the Rockefeller Foundation .
Funded By
SE4AAll Finance Committee Report, which was presented at the Financing for Development Conference in Addis to Africa’s Heads of
State, endorsed Africa Green Coas a recommendation and a call to look into the concept’s viability
Endorsed By
Ben Kioko – Former Chief Legal Advisor to the African Union
Tim Nielander – Senior Legal Advisor for ARC and rom 2005 until 2010, Tim served as
General Counsel and Managing Director of Corporate Services for theGAVI Alliance
Tantra Thakur – Former Founder and Managing Director of PTC India
Special Advisors:
SE4AAll Finance Committee Report, which was presented at the Financing for Development Conference in Addis to
Africa’s Heads of State, endorsed Africa Green Coas a recommendation and a call to look into the concept’s
viability
Financial Advisors
Lion’s Head Global Partners.
Project Development & Finance: Shearman & Sterling has one of the leading international legal practices in limited
recourse development and acquisition financing of projects
Legal Advisors
Shearman & Sterling LLP
Working with
Current Situation
Correlation between infrastructure development and GDP grow What is needed is an “integrated infrastructure” approach (focus on genera-
tion and transmission and interconnection) Current focus on individual projects in different countries – unconnected projects Efficient cross
border power integration is vital for economic developed
(Source: McKinsey’s Brighter Africa Report)
Only 37% of the eastern African and 25% of the southern
African population had access to electricity in 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa by 2040
Huge demand that needs to be tackled in an integrated
manner:
1 Fourfold increase in total demand - nearly 1,6000 terawatts
of consumption by 2040
2 Fivefold increase in GDP
3 A doubling of population
4 Increased urabanization (70%) – with more than 70% of
population grid connected
Context – Regional Renewable Energy Development
25%37%
70%
(Source: McKinsey’s Brighter Africa Report)
Supply
1 Excluding solar, 1.2 terawatts of capacity
2 Including solar 10 terawats of capacity
3 400 of gas generated power – (Mozambique, Nigeria and Tanzania representing 60%)
4 350 gigawatts of hydro (with DRC representing 50%)
5 109 gigawatts of wind
6 15 gigawatts of proven geothermal (Ethiopia and Kenya)
Capital Required by 2040
1 More than 800$ billion in capital needed (490$ for new generating capacity
and $35 for transmission and distribution)
2 $40 billion in capital savings with regionalization and save African consumer
$10 billion per year by 2014 with the fall of the levalized cost of energy
3 Increased adoption = 27% reduction in C02
Positive Developments for regional energy development
1 PIDA Financial Structuring Plan calls for new models of partnership between business,
government and donors to implement the 51 Priority Action Plan (PAP)
2 The energy component in the PAP alone consists of 15 projects worth US$ 40 billion
3 SDG’s adopted and SDG 7 calls for doubling of clean energy
4 SE4ALL calls for doubling of renewable energy generation
5 Africa 50 as a source of project development and project finance
6 AfDB’s New Deal for Energy in Africa and “Integrated Infrastructure” approach
7 Arica Power Vision – A regional approach supported by AU and NEPAD
Main Problem – Attracting Sufficient Finance for Regional projects due to:
Solution – Africa GreenCo
• The lack of creditworthiness of off takers;
• The lack of supply and size of high quality bankable deals;
• The lack of necessary expertise and knowledge in developing IPPs.
• Africa GreenCo – a new model via which to achieve PIDA’s regional energy ambitions
• Follows NEPADs project selection methodology as per Africa Power Vision
• Follows PIDA’s Financial Structuring Plan
• Follows SAPPs Priority Projects Methodology for Project Selection
• Aligns its goals with that of Africa 50 and AfDB’s New Deal for Energy in Africa
• Africa GreenCo not another risk mitigating instrument but 1)an offtaker and 2) a trader
Unlike current development efforts which focus on the financing component of both large-scale and off-grid
generation, this mechanism addresses the core issue of creditworthiness of off-takers and the lack of a viable power
market to sell electricity production.
The envisioned entity is an ambitious attempt to develop the largely underutilized power pools by providing them
with the first ever independent power broker capable of developing fair and standardized electricity markets.
Africa GreenCo is not an another initiative – it is a business and a new vehicle
An integrated solution – not an additional financial instrument
What is Africa GreenCo
Intermediary &
Creditworthy Regional
Offtaker
Power Trader via a
power pool
AND
What will Africa GreenCo do?
It would act as a credit enhancement intermediary for regional power projects by
entering into long term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with generators and back-
to-back PPAs with state utilities, thus standing between IPPs on the one hand, and the
utility companies to which they currently sell on the other.
It would sell via the power pools thus involving the power pools as a key counterparty
It would be a single point PPA counterparty, eliminating the need for power producers
to negotiate multiple PPAs and associated support packages
In case of national utility default it would sell to another wiling buyer via the pool –
diversifying the risk amongst multiple players
Africa GreenCo pools default risks – aim is to achieve scale and diversification across a
number of off-takers. Its credit criteria will also have to take into account a target
portfolio risk and the trade-offs between low rated and higher rated African countries.
Africa GreenCo would act as intermediary offtaker only and would not manage the actual transmission and
distribution of energy. It would not own any of the grid infrastructure or seek to replace existing utilities or the
role of the power pools – it would become a new member of the power pool in its role as an offtaker and
trader via it.
1
2
3
4
5
Transactional Structure Schematic
MIGA/
World Bank
or Climate Funds
Guarantee
SAAP Member
States
Commercial end user Private end user
MDB,DFls
Donors,
Private sector,
and national
utilities
Banks and debt
providers
Equity
Contribution
Equity Contribution
Equity
Contribution
5-10%
Equity
return
Equity return
Debt
Finance
Debt
Repayment IPP
Equity
return
Equity investors
National utility
companies
SAPP
Africa
GreenCo
Indemnity
Guarantee
Member State
Guarantee S MWh
MWh
MW
MW
MWh
PSA S
PPA S
Plus margin
Next Steps
1. Establish regional focus and prove pipeline of projects. Current focus on SADC/SAPP because:
• SAPP the most sophisticated power pool to date;
• SADC/SAPP working on the establishment of the SADC wide IPP framework;
• Membership open to private-public sector entities. Private company CEC already a member;
• RURA established a uniform wheeling tariff methodology.
2. Prepare a credible financial structure for the vehicle
3. Prepare a credible legal and regulatory structure – learning from the example of ARC and ATI
4. Take into account all main technical (transmission, interconnection, power trading) and other
relevant requirements in order to indicate the technical feasibility of the concept
The concept could also be contextualized for:
1. Great Rift Valley Geothermal Projects
2.Mano River Union area generation projects to connect to the CGTL transmission line
3.EAPP and EAC
4.The Great Lakes Region
Modelling the Instrument: Overview
Africa GreenCo’s core operational model is as a power trading intermediary between devlopres and offtakers
and offtaker.Our financial analysis aims to factor in indirect implications on investment and pricing
across the energy supply chain significantly enhance the
African power ecosystem.
Investors
IMPACT
MODELLING
FACTORS
Capital
Increased bankability
Lower risks
premiums
Optimizing capital
structure
IRR and NPV
PPA cost Impacts
Cost of capital
impacts
Margin on PPA pass
through
Default Risk
management
Other return options
(CO2, IPP stake)
Reduced balance
sheet pressure
Improved cross
border coordination
Impact on cost of
electricity
Lower transaction
costs
Power
Projects
AFRICA
GREENCO
Utilities End UsersPPA
Increased bankability
Lower offtake price
Pooled default risk
Reduced contracting
time, complexity
Lower in cost of
capital
Improved source
planning
Time to contract
Lower cost electricity
Increased availability
of electricity
PPA Power
Modelling the Structure : Cont'd
Determing the ultimate capital structure for Africa GreenCo is will be dynamic,
encompassing various considerations on the optimal strategy, scope of activities
legal structure and regulatory framework.
Investors Capital Power
Projects
AFRICA
GREENCO
Utilities End UsersPPA PPA Power
• Margin on PPA pass-through
• Management team
• Transaction costs
• Project Pipeline
• Balance sheet
• Tranching
• Liquidity
• Leverage/ratings
• Type of Investor
• Return of cashflows
• Long term financial
• Sustainability
• Credit enhancement
• Cost of management and operations
• Portfolio characteristics
• Return expectations
• Risk appetite
• Macro market conditions
OPERATIONS
CAPITAL
STRUCTURE
INVESTORS
Investor Base: Considerations
Africa GreenCo presents timely innovative financing opportunity – pooling capital from a board
range of types of investors according to the quantum of capital needed, market demand and
relative risk/return profile
CONCESSIONAL International
Donors
• Catalytic Capital
• Host/partner organisation(s)
• Non financial impacts numerous,
• Health, education, trade
• Local ownership
• Risk sharing
• Scalability/Marketing Depending
• Long term financial sustainability
• Improved risk/ Price discovery
• Direct assest class exposure
Philanthropic
Investors
African Public
Sector
African Private
Sector
International
Capital MarketsCOMMERCIAL
Evolving The Structure And Investor Base
The capital structure of Africa GreenCo will evolve over time. Initially, we expect to access
funding from concessional capital and coordinate – financially and operationally – with
IFIs. Longer term, the aim is to create a financially viable investment platform.
STAGE 1: PILOT
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
Rating
Structuring
MDBs/DFIs
International Capital Markets
Insurance and Re-insurance
African public sector
African institutional investors
Int’l institutional investors
Int’l Donors
Foundations
Member State’s
IDA as per ATI
Host/partner organisations
Initial deal flow
Proof of concept
Tranched Capital Structure
Visible deal Pipeline
Financial sustainability
CAPITAL
CAPITAL
STAGE 2: GROWTH
Product: Africa GreenCo will offer a PPA with a back-to-back power supply agreement with national utilities.
Pricing: Africa GreenCo is offering guaranteed payment to IPPs and taking the risk that it will receive payment from national utilities and
governments (diversifying the risk by being able to sell to other members of the pool via SAPP and/or EAPP, including having the ability to
divert power in case of default).
Tariff: The tariff charged by AGC to utilities must not be greater than the cost of direct contracting. The intentionis that the generation tariff
offered by the IPPs to AGC will be lower as a result of enhanced credit strength of its counterparty (i.e. a lower cost of capital through cost of
debt, tenor, leverage and LOC/ reserve requirements(and reduced delay) and this will enable a lower tariff to be offered to utilities than is
currently achieved, even
after AGC’s costs have been factored in.
Portfolio: The crucial aim for AGC is to achieve scale and diversification across a number of off-takers. Its credit criteria will also have to take
into account a target portfolio risk and the trade-offs between low rated and higher rated African countries.
Capital: The efficient capital structure for AGC will depend on its risk weighted portfolio and capital requirements. Different capital sources might be
incorporated in a tranched structure (first-loss, second-loss, etc.) with different sources (e.g. donors, DFIs and other investors) plus member states
contributions (either through equity capital (from IDA via World Bank) similar to the arrangement for ATI, or long-term subordinated loan, or non-vot-
ing subordinated equity if allowed by national laws). We will also need clear rules for the portfolio risk management.
Leverage: Initially, we accept that achieving leverage thorough commercial counterparties will be difficult, so we may look to the likes of EIB, KfW,
WBG and AFDB to provide AAA counter guarantees.
FX: Depending on the outcome of the analysis of Strategic Options, AGC may have a local currency component. The management of FX risk, or the
mitigation of FX risk, will be a primary concern if offering part-local currency PPAs. Management: AGC will require experienced professional staff with
experience in credit underwriting, insurance markets, power trading and project finance.
Legal and Regulatory - We are looking at ATI and ARC as examples of public-private intergovernmental entities and risk pool vehicles. Also we are
looking at inclusion precedent of CEC as a first private sector member of the SAPP.
Benefits of Africa GreenCo (amongst others):
• Local ownership by structuring the vehicle as a public private partnership with African sovereigns as
members (similar to African Risk Capacity and African Trade and Insurance Agency);
• Standardization of power contracts and terms;
• Support for the further development of existing power pools as regional power system operators;
• Ultimately takes away the need for sovereign guarantees as member states are pooling risk and
capital at the Africa GreenCo level;
• Opportunities to facilitate restructuring of existing project debt, making it easier for DFIs to sell post-
construction portfolios to institutional investors;
• Reduced power prices by minimizing risk premiums applied to investors and introducing more competition;
• Africa GreenCo provides a central vehicle through which organisational and practical challenges can be
approached and resolved
• Clear member states’ political approval to be obtained;
• Substantial funding and interest required from DFIs, donors and MDBs;
• Underdeveloped transmission and interconnection networks and tie lines;
• Lack of sophisticated legal framework for trading;
• Lack of clear wheeling rules and rules for access to the transmission grid;
• Difficulty aligning national and regional investment decisions;
• Differences in regulatory environments between countries; Insufficient regional institutions with
independent regulatory powers;
• Slow progress towards achievement of cost reflective tariffs; and
• Challenges of ownership and accountability for regional programs.
Main Barriers to Implementation
Africa is on the Move
Today
Collective
GDP in 2013
US$2.0 trillion
1.1billion
38%
US$1tr
US$5.5 trillion
2.4 billion
60%
US$ 4.75tr
Africa’s
Population
2013
Population
in Urban
Areas 2013
Consumer
Spending 2013
Collective
GDP in 2050
Africa’s
Population
2050
Population
In Urban
Areas 2050
Consumer
Spending 2050
Tomorrow
Emerging as an Economic Success Story

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Africa Green Corporation

  • 1. Africa GreenCo(Africa Green Regional Energy: Efficient, New and Creditworthy Offtaker Copyright © 2010 by Africa GreenCo. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher, addressed “Attention: Permissions Coordinator,” at the address below. Ana Hajduka Africa GreenCo Founder & CEO Email: ana.hajduka@africagreenco.com Mob: +447789204363 Abidjan, PIDA Week November 2015
  • 2. Mission Benefit Sectors Africa GreenCo’s mission is to promote the development of a public-private partnership in the form of an independent, creditworthy, renewable energy offtaker/trader of power, acting at a regional level in Sub-Saharan Africa to purchase electricity from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and sell via the power pools. From a financial stand-point, it will use its capital base to enhance off-taker creditworthiness. From an operations stand-point, it will coordinate government decision making, facilitate interconnection and increase power trading. Regional and interregional power sector integration is a prerequisite for larger and more cost-effective hydro- electric, geothermal, wind, solar and biomass projects, and will savebillions of dollars in development, opera- tion and maintnance costs, enabling the expansionof energy access in Sub-Saharan Africa.This single-point power purchase agreement (PPA) counterparty would streamline development, mitigate offtake and credit risk,and catalyze private sector finance for large scale cross border renewable energy development. Renewable and sustainable energy
  • 3. Feasibility study Current status Grant funding provided by the Rockefeller Foundation . Funded By SE4AAll Finance Committee Report, which was presented at the Financing for Development Conference in Addis to Africa’s Heads of State, endorsed Africa Green Coas a recommendation and a call to look into the concept’s viability Endorsed By Ben Kioko – Former Chief Legal Advisor to the African Union Tim Nielander – Senior Legal Advisor for ARC and rom 2005 until 2010, Tim served as General Counsel and Managing Director of Corporate Services for theGAVI Alliance Tantra Thakur – Former Founder and Managing Director of PTC India Special Advisors: SE4AAll Finance Committee Report, which was presented at the Financing for Development Conference in Addis to Africa’s Heads of State, endorsed Africa Green Coas a recommendation and a call to look into the concept’s viability Financial Advisors Lion’s Head Global Partners. Project Development & Finance: Shearman & Sterling has one of the leading international legal practices in limited recourse development and acquisition financing of projects Legal Advisors Shearman & Sterling LLP Working with
  • 4. Current Situation Correlation between infrastructure development and GDP grow What is needed is an “integrated infrastructure” approach (focus on genera- tion and transmission and interconnection) Current focus on individual projects in different countries – unconnected projects Efficient cross border power integration is vital for economic developed (Source: McKinsey’s Brighter Africa Report) Only 37% of the eastern African and 25% of the southern African population had access to electricity in 2010 Sub-Saharan Africa by 2040 Huge demand that needs to be tackled in an integrated manner: 1 Fourfold increase in total demand - nearly 1,6000 terawatts of consumption by 2040 2 Fivefold increase in GDP 3 A doubling of population 4 Increased urabanization (70%) – with more than 70% of population grid connected Context – Regional Renewable Energy Development 25%37% 70%
  • 5. (Source: McKinsey’s Brighter Africa Report) Supply 1 Excluding solar, 1.2 terawatts of capacity 2 Including solar 10 terawats of capacity 3 400 of gas generated power – (Mozambique, Nigeria and Tanzania representing 60%) 4 350 gigawatts of hydro (with DRC representing 50%) 5 109 gigawatts of wind 6 15 gigawatts of proven geothermal (Ethiopia and Kenya) Capital Required by 2040 1 More than 800$ billion in capital needed (490$ for new generating capacity and $35 for transmission and distribution) 2 $40 billion in capital savings with regionalization and save African consumer $10 billion per year by 2014 with the fall of the levalized cost of energy 3 Increased adoption = 27% reduction in C02
  • 6. Positive Developments for regional energy development 1 PIDA Financial Structuring Plan calls for new models of partnership between business, government and donors to implement the 51 Priority Action Plan (PAP) 2 The energy component in the PAP alone consists of 15 projects worth US$ 40 billion 3 SDG’s adopted and SDG 7 calls for doubling of clean energy 4 SE4ALL calls for doubling of renewable energy generation 5 Africa 50 as a source of project development and project finance 6 AfDB’s New Deal for Energy in Africa and “Integrated Infrastructure” approach 7 Arica Power Vision – A regional approach supported by AU and NEPAD
  • 7. Main Problem – Attracting Sufficient Finance for Regional projects due to: Solution – Africa GreenCo • The lack of creditworthiness of off takers; • The lack of supply and size of high quality bankable deals; • The lack of necessary expertise and knowledge in developing IPPs. • Africa GreenCo – a new model via which to achieve PIDA’s regional energy ambitions • Follows NEPADs project selection methodology as per Africa Power Vision • Follows PIDA’s Financial Structuring Plan • Follows SAPPs Priority Projects Methodology for Project Selection • Aligns its goals with that of Africa 50 and AfDB’s New Deal for Energy in Africa • Africa GreenCo not another risk mitigating instrument but 1)an offtaker and 2) a trader Unlike current development efforts which focus on the financing component of both large-scale and off-grid generation, this mechanism addresses the core issue of creditworthiness of off-takers and the lack of a viable power market to sell electricity production. The envisioned entity is an ambitious attempt to develop the largely underutilized power pools by providing them with the first ever independent power broker capable of developing fair and standardized electricity markets. Africa GreenCo is not an another initiative – it is a business and a new vehicle An integrated solution – not an additional financial instrument
  • 8. What is Africa GreenCo Intermediary & Creditworthy Regional Offtaker Power Trader via a power pool AND
  • 9. What will Africa GreenCo do? It would act as a credit enhancement intermediary for regional power projects by entering into long term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with generators and back- to-back PPAs with state utilities, thus standing between IPPs on the one hand, and the utility companies to which they currently sell on the other. It would sell via the power pools thus involving the power pools as a key counterparty It would be a single point PPA counterparty, eliminating the need for power producers to negotiate multiple PPAs and associated support packages In case of national utility default it would sell to another wiling buyer via the pool – diversifying the risk amongst multiple players Africa GreenCo pools default risks – aim is to achieve scale and diversification across a number of off-takers. Its credit criteria will also have to take into account a target portfolio risk and the trade-offs between low rated and higher rated African countries. Africa GreenCo would act as intermediary offtaker only and would not manage the actual transmission and distribution of energy. It would not own any of the grid infrastructure or seek to replace existing utilities or the role of the power pools – it would become a new member of the power pool in its role as an offtaker and trader via it. 1 2 3 4 5
  • 10. Transactional Structure Schematic MIGA/ World Bank or Climate Funds Guarantee SAAP Member States Commercial end user Private end user MDB,DFls Donors, Private sector, and national utilities Banks and debt providers Equity Contribution Equity Contribution Equity Contribution 5-10% Equity return Equity return Debt Finance Debt Repayment IPP Equity return Equity investors National utility companies SAPP Africa GreenCo Indemnity Guarantee Member State Guarantee S MWh MWh MW MW MWh PSA S PPA S Plus margin
  • 11. Next Steps 1. Establish regional focus and prove pipeline of projects. Current focus on SADC/SAPP because: • SAPP the most sophisticated power pool to date; • SADC/SAPP working on the establishment of the SADC wide IPP framework; • Membership open to private-public sector entities. Private company CEC already a member; • RURA established a uniform wheeling tariff methodology. 2. Prepare a credible financial structure for the vehicle 3. Prepare a credible legal and regulatory structure – learning from the example of ARC and ATI 4. Take into account all main technical (transmission, interconnection, power trading) and other relevant requirements in order to indicate the technical feasibility of the concept The concept could also be contextualized for: 1. Great Rift Valley Geothermal Projects 2.Mano River Union area generation projects to connect to the CGTL transmission line 3.EAPP and EAC 4.The Great Lakes Region
  • 12. Modelling the Instrument: Overview Africa GreenCo’s core operational model is as a power trading intermediary between devlopres and offtakers and offtaker.Our financial analysis aims to factor in indirect implications on investment and pricing across the energy supply chain significantly enhance the African power ecosystem. Investors IMPACT MODELLING FACTORS Capital Increased bankability Lower risks premiums Optimizing capital structure IRR and NPV PPA cost Impacts Cost of capital impacts Margin on PPA pass through Default Risk management Other return options (CO2, IPP stake) Reduced balance sheet pressure Improved cross border coordination Impact on cost of electricity Lower transaction costs Power Projects AFRICA GREENCO Utilities End UsersPPA Increased bankability Lower offtake price Pooled default risk Reduced contracting time, complexity Lower in cost of capital Improved source planning Time to contract Lower cost electricity Increased availability of electricity PPA Power
  • 13. Modelling the Structure : Cont'd Determing the ultimate capital structure for Africa GreenCo is will be dynamic, encompassing various considerations on the optimal strategy, scope of activities legal structure and regulatory framework. Investors Capital Power Projects AFRICA GREENCO Utilities End UsersPPA PPA Power • Margin on PPA pass-through • Management team • Transaction costs • Project Pipeline • Balance sheet • Tranching • Liquidity • Leverage/ratings • Type of Investor • Return of cashflows • Long term financial • Sustainability • Credit enhancement • Cost of management and operations • Portfolio characteristics • Return expectations • Risk appetite • Macro market conditions OPERATIONS CAPITAL STRUCTURE INVESTORS
  • 14. Investor Base: Considerations Africa GreenCo presents timely innovative financing opportunity – pooling capital from a board range of types of investors according to the quantum of capital needed, market demand and relative risk/return profile CONCESSIONAL International Donors • Catalytic Capital • Host/partner organisation(s) • Non financial impacts numerous, • Health, education, trade • Local ownership • Risk sharing • Scalability/Marketing Depending • Long term financial sustainability • Improved risk/ Price discovery • Direct assest class exposure Philanthropic Investors African Public Sector African Private Sector International Capital MarketsCOMMERCIAL
  • 15. Evolving The Structure And Investor Base The capital structure of Africa GreenCo will evolve over time. Initially, we expect to access funding from concessional capital and coordinate – financially and operationally – with IFIs. Longer term, the aim is to create a financially viable investment platform. STAGE 1: PILOT LEVERAGE LEVERAGE Rating Structuring MDBs/DFIs International Capital Markets Insurance and Re-insurance African public sector African institutional investors Int’l institutional investors Int’l Donors Foundations Member State’s IDA as per ATI Host/partner organisations Initial deal flow Proof of concept Tranched Capital Structure Visible deal Pipeline Financial sustainability CAPITAL CAPITAL STAGE 2: GROWTH
  • 16. Product: Africa GreenCo will offer a PPA with a back-to-back power supply agreement with national utilities. Pricing: Africa GreenCo is offering guaranteed payment to IPPs and taking the risk that it will receive payment from national utilities and governments (diversifying the risk by being able to sell to other members of the pool via SAPP and/or EAPP, including having the ability to divert power in case of default). Tariff: The tariff charged by AGC to utilities must not be greater than the cost of direct contracting. The intentionis that the generation tariff offered by the IPPs to AGC will be lower as a result of enhanced credit strength of its counterparty (i.e. a lower cost of capital through cost of debt, tenor, leverage and LOC/ reserve requirements(and reduced delay) and this will enable a lower tariff to be offered to utilities than is currently achieved, even after AGC’s costs have been factored in. Portfolio: The crucial aim for AGC is to achieve scale and diversification across a number of off-takers. Its credit criteria will also have to take into account a target portfolio risk and the trade-offs between low rated and higher rated African countries. Capital: The efficient capital structure for AGC will depend on its risk weighted portfolio and capital requirements. Different capital sources might be incorporated in a tranched structure (first-loss, second-loss, etc.) with different sources (e.g. donors, DFIs and other investors) plus member states contributions (either through equity capital (from IDA via World Bank) similar to the arrangement for ATI, or long-term subordinated loan, or non-vot- ing subordinated equity if allowed by national laws). We will also need clear rules for the portfolio risk management. Leverage: Initially, we accept that achieving leverage thorough commercial counterparties will be difficult, so we may look to the likes of EIB, KfW, WBG and AFDB to provide AAA counter guarantees. FX: Depending on the outcome of the analysis of Strategic Options, AGC may have a local currency component. The management of FX risk, or the mitigation of FX risk, will be a primary concern if offering part-local currency PPAs. Management: AGC will require experienced professional staff with experience in credit underwriting, insurance markets, power trading and project finance. Legal and Regulatory - We are looking at ATI and ARC as examples of public-private intergovernmental entities and risk pool vehicles. Also we are looking at inclusion precedent of CEC as a first private sector member of the SAPP.
  • 17. Benefits of Africa GreenCo (amongst others): • Local ownership by structuring the vehicle as a public private partnership with African sovereigns as members (similar to African Risk Capacity and African Trade and Insurance Agency); • Standardization of power contracts and terms; • Support for the further development of existing power pools as regional power system operators; • Ultimately takes away the need for sovereign guarantees as member states are pooling risk and capital at the Africa GreenCo level; • Opportunities to facilitate restructuring of existing project debt, making it easier for DFIs to sell post- construction portfolios to institutional investors; • Reduced power prices by minimizing risk premiums applied to investors and introducing more competition; • Africa GreenCo provides a central vehicle through which organisational and practical challenges can be approached and resolved
  • 18. • Clear member states’ political approval to be obtained; • Substantial funding and interest required from DFIs, donors and MDBs; • Underdeveloped transmission and interconnection networks and tie lines; • Lack of sophisticated legal framework for trading; • Lack of clear wheeling rules and rules for access to the transmission grid; • Difficulty aligning national and regional investment decisions; • Differences in regulatory environments between countries; Insufficient regional institutions with independent regulatory powers; • Slow progress towards achievement of cost reflective tariffs; and • Challenges of ownership and accountability for regional programs. Main Barriers to Implementation
  • 19. Africa is on the Move Today Collective GDP in 2013 US$2.0 trillion 1.1billion 38% US$1tr US$5.5 trillion 2.4 billion 60% US$ 4.75tr Africa’s Population 2013 Population in Urban Areas 2013 Consumer Spending 2013 Collective GDP in 2050 Africa’s Population 2050 Population In Urban Areas 2050 Consumer Spending 2050 Tomorrow Emerging as an Economic Success Story