Global Warming Presentation Lesson

1. Global Warming AngpagbabagokayangklimadahilsakagagawanngtaoangsiyangsumirasaPlanetangDaigdig? By Dale Robert B. Caoili Makabayan 4

2. Pangganyak Painitbangpainitangmundo? Kung gayon, anoangdahilannito? Anoangmagagawa mo paramapigilanito? Angmgapotensyalnasolusyonba ay sapatupanggastusan at mapigilanang “Global Warming”?

3. KasaysayanngKlimangMundo Nabuoangmundo may ~4.6 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan Napakainitnitonoongunangpanahon AnginilalabasnaenerhiyangAraw noon ay 70% lamangngkasalukuyan. Halos tubigangbuongplanetanoong~4.3 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan Angmalakingporsyentongkasaysayanngplaneta ay naburanoongsunod-sunod pa angpagbagsakngmgabulalakawsalupa(~3.9 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan)

4. KasaysayanngKlimangMundo Angunangbagaynabuhay ay lumabas may ~3.8 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan. “Photosynthesis” ay nagsimula3.5-2.5 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan. Naglabasitong oxygen at tinaggalangcarbon dioxide at methane (greenhouse gases) AngDaigdig ay dumaansaPanahonngGrabengPaglamig(“Snowball Earth”) at Pag-init AngDaigdig ay nagsimulangmgaPanahonngglacial at interglacial may ~3 milyongtaonnaangnakararaan.

5. Sun Solar Energy Solar Energy Earth’s Temperature

6. Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

7. Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

8. Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

9. Greenhouse Effect Sun

10. Earth’s Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2) Argon (Ar) Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Non-Greenhouse Gases >99% Greenhouse Gases <1%

11. Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect Venus 97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric acid clouds Temperature:860°F

12. Carbon Dioxide

13. Carbon Dioxide Levels Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 CO2 (ppm) 330 310 10 20 30 40 0 420 370 320 CO2 (ppm) 270 220 Vostok Ice Core Dome Concordia 170 200000 400000 600000 0 Time (YBP)

14. Worldwide Carbon Emissions Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel 8 7 6 5 Carbon (109 metric tons) 4 3 2 1 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

15. Annual Carbon Emissions Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 average 8 6 Carbon (109 metric tons) 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year

16. Future Carbon Dioxide Levels Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries Likely to double within 150 years: Increased coal usage Increased natural gas usage Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)

17. Kyoto Protocol Adopted in 1997 Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming

18. Past Temperatures

19. Recorded Worldwide Temperatures Decreasing Flat Flat 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 D Mean Temperature (°C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

20. Winter Temperatures Summer Temperatures Annual Temperatures 17 25 22 21 16 24 20 15 23 19 14 22 Temperature (°C) 18 13 21 17 12 20 16 11 19 15 10 18 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Year Year Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

21. -4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1 2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980 2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

22. Past Temperatures Measurement Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature) Tree rings Ice cores Pollen records Plant macrofossils Sr/Ca isotope data Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)

23. Temperature History of the Earth Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C warmer than today Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation  Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic

24. Main Ocean Currents Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

25. Temperature History of the Earth For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity

26. Orbital Parameters: Precession Perihelion Apehelion

27. Orbital Parameters: Obliquity 22.5° 24.5°

28. Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity Perihelion Apehelion Apehelion Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005 Not to scale! To Scale!

29. Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate Precession(22 ky) Obliquity(41 ky) Eccentricity(100 ky) Temperature 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)

30. Temperature History of the Earth For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago

31. Younger Dryas Event YoungerDryas Medieval Warm Ice Age Little Ice Age -25 0.35 -30 0.30 -35 0.25 Snow Accumulation (m/yr) -40 0.20 Temperature (°C) -45 0.15 -50 0.10 -55 0.05 0 5 10 15 20 Age (kya)

32. Younger Dryas Event -34 -8.0 YoungerDryas -35 -7.5 -36 -7.0 -37 -6.5 -38 -39 -6.0 d18O (Greenland) d18O (China) -40 -5.5 -41 -5.0 -42 -4.5 -43 -44 -4.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Age (kya)

33. Temperature History of the Earth Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2°C higher than today. 20°C higher at high latitudes 1°C higher at the Equator Sea levels were 100 ft higher Causes CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher Increased thermohaline circulation

34. Temperature History of the Earth Eocene (41 million years ago) Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). Increased ocean current exchange Strong global cooling First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago

35. Temperature History of the Earth Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C Causes Increased volcanism Rapid release of methane from the oceans

36. Temperature History of the Earth Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) Much warmer Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland Causes Different ocean currents (continental arrangement) higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)

37. A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records 6000 5000 4000 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppmV) 3000 2000 1000 0 30 60 Continental Glaciation (Paleolatitude) 90 S D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng Paleozoic Mesozoic Cenozoic 400 300 200 100 0 Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580

38. Recent Temperature Changes

39. “Hockey Stick” Controversy 0.6 Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999 0.4 0.2 0 Temperature Change (°C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

40. The Problem with Tree Rings 0.3 Jones et al. 1998 Briffa et al. 1999 Mann et al. 1999 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 Temperature Change (°C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

41. What Influences Tree Rings? Temperature Rainfall Carbon dioxide concentration

42. 2 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 1 0 Temperature Change (°C) -1 -2 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

43. Is the Hockey Stick Correct? Medieval Warm Period Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Temperature Change (°C) -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Year

44. U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006 “high level of confidence” “2:1 chance of being right” 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Temperature Change (°C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

45. Troposphere Stratosphere 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 Temperature Cgange (°C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 Year Year Atmospheric Temperatures

46. CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature 370 320 31 30 SST (°C) Tropical Pacific CO2 (ppm) Antarctica 270 29 28 220 27 26 170 25 0 200000 400000 600000 Time (YBP)

47. Consequences of Global Warming

48. Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean 1.0 Land Ocean Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Temperature Change (°C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1920 1960 2000 1920 1960 2000 Year Year

49. -4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1 2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

50. Ice Sheets Melting? GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry) confirmed Antarctica melting Greenland ice melting onexterior, accumulating inland(higher precipitation)

51. Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro

52. 1000 800 600 400 200 Ice Mass (km3) 0 -200 -400 -600 2004 2003 2005 Year Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass

53. Rise in Sea Levels? Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic

54. Changing Sea Levels Global Temperature Change 20 10 0 Relative Sea Level (cm) -10 Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland -20 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5

55. 31 20 Sea Levels for 450,000 Years 0 30 -20 29 -40 Sea Level (m) 28 SST (°C) Tropical Pacific -60 27 -80 26 -100 -120 25 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Time (KYBP)

56. Increase in Hurricanes? 15 Data Unreliable 10 SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2) 5 Scaled August-OctoberSea-Surface Temperature Adjusted Atlantic StormPower Dissipation Index 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy) Difficult to know if this trend will continue

57. How Much Temperature Increase? Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C

58. Wildlife Effects Polar Bears Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild Sea turtles Breed on the same islands astheir birth Could go extinct on some islandsas beaches are flooded Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world

59. Effect on Humans Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat Decreased thermohaline circulation Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic CO2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes Droughts and famine (some areas) Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

60. -50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50 Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes

61. Drought in Africa Lake Faguibine Lake Chad

62. Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars) 800 600 400 200 0 450 550 650 750 Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

63. Possible Solutions to Global Warming

64. Mitigation of Global Warming Conservation Reduce energy needs Recycling Alternate energy sources Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?

65. Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations Depleted oil and gas reservoirs CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery 4 1 3b 3a 2 Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7

66. Global Warming Myths

67. 1366.8 1366.6 1366.4 1366.2 1366.0 Solar Irradiance (W/m2) 1365.8 1365.6 1365.4 1365.2 Global Warming Has Stopped? 0.8 0.6 0.4 D Mean Temperature (°C) 0.2 0.0 -0.2 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year

68. Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning Fossil Fuel Volcanoes 10 8 6 Carbon (109 metric tons) 4 2 0

69. Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots 250 0.8 0.6 200 0.4 150 0.2 Sunspots D Mean Temperature (°C) 0.0 100 -0.2 50 -0.4 0 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

70. Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots 250 1.5 1.0 200 0.0 150 Sunspots D Mean Temperature (°C) -0.5 100 -1.0 50 -1.5 -2.0 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

71. 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 Gamma Cosmic Rays 3600 3400 3200 3000 Global Warming is Caused by GCR 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 D Mean Temperature (°C) 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

72. CO2 Vs. Sea Level CO2 Vs. Temperature 40 320 6 20 4 300 0 2 280 -20 0 260 CO2(ppmv) -40 -2 Relative Sea Level Temperature 240 -60 -4 220 -80 -6 200 -100 -8 -120 -10 180 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 Time (ybp) Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.

73. -4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1 Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands 2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

74. Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming

75. Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Land vs. Ocean Land Ocean 1920 1960 2000 Year Northern vs. Southern Latitude 1.0 Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Temperature Change (°C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1920 1960 2000 Year

76. Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft? Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Recently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports

77. Changing Sea Levels Global Temperature Change 20 10 0 Relative Sea Level (cm) -10 Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland -20 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5

78. How Much Temperature Increase? Global warming alarmists propose up to 9°C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C

79. Predictions Vs. Reality 1.5 Annual Mean Global Temperature Change 1.0 DT (°C) 0.5 0 OBSERVED SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C -0.4 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019 Date Exponential Increase in carbon emissions Moderate reduction in carbon emissions Drastic reduction in carbon emissions Observed temps through 1988 Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241.

80. Temperature Extrapolation 2.5 2.0 1.5 DT (°C) 1.0 0.5 0 -0.4 2040 2060 2080 2100 1960 1980 2000 2020 Date

81. Conclusions Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of human activities There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere?