"Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update" webinar slides presented September 12, 2013, by Kenneth Hunter on behalf of American Society for Public Administration (ASPA)
10. 5.9%
5.8%
1.9%
6.3%
5.0%
6.7%
6.8%
6.9%
6.6%
6.0%
7.7%
9.6%
5.6%
-0.7%
6.3%
5.3%
4.6%
6.6%
1.8%
5.5%
8.8%
3.3%
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods
Foods, feeds, and beverages
Industrial supplies and materials
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Capital goods, except automotive
Civilian aircraft, engines, and parts
Other
Automotive vehicles, engines, and parts
Consumer goods, except automotive
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Other
Exports of services
Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts
Travel
Passenger fares
Other transportation
Royalties and license fees
Other private services
Other
Annual Growth Rate, Chained Values of US Exports, 2005-Present
22. Where do we stand on volatility?
Crude Oil
Gold
S&P 500
23. How are Individuals Doing?
-115,000
848,000
2,006,000
-.5M
.M
.5M
1.M
1.5M
2.M
2.5M
Last 1 Month Since Start of 2013 Since August 2012
Change in US Civilian Employment, August 2013
32. Saez, Emmanuel. Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2012 preliminary estimates).
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf (September 3, 2013)
It’s Been a TOUGH Recession!
38. Revenues, 11.2%
Revenues, 2.3%
Expenditures, 3.1%
Expenditures, -
0.1%
Debt Outstanding,
0.0%
Debt Outstanding,
3.4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
State Local
1-Yr Change in State & Local Government Revenues & Exependitures,
FY 2011
State & Local Condition Better
39. Local Pensions are Underfunded
100%
93%
90%
88%
87% 86%
88%
84%
80%
78%
74%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Aggregate Actuarial Funding Ratio of Select State & Local
Defined-Contribution Plans, FY 2001 to FY 2011
40. Local Pensions are Underfunded
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
FY 2010 Actuarial Funding Ratios, US State & Local Defined Benefit Plans
Group Funding Aggregate, 77.8%
Source: Center for Retirement Research, Boston College
42. Outlook
US GDP Growth
2.3% annualized rate for 3rd Quarter
1.9% growth for 2013 (down from earlier 2.4%)
3.0% growth in 2014
Probability of Fed’s “Taper”
~45% during rest of 2013
~80% in 2014