1. What Should I Do Now A Registered Investment Advisor Member FINRA/SIPC
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3. A Snapshot of the Economy and Financial Markets 2009 Sources: FactSet; Dow Jones Industrial Average; S&P 500 Index; Home Values: Zillow Real Estate Market Reports; Bonds: Barclays Capital US Aggregate; Unemployment: Bureau of Labor Statistics Dow Jones 22.7% S&P 500 26.5% Home Values 5% US Bonds 5.9 Unemployment Rate 10% 2010 Dow Jones 15% S&P 500 14% Home Values 5% US Bonds 6.5 Unemployment Rate 9%
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5. Markets Have Rebounded, But … 667 1336 100% increase But have investors benefitted from these gains? S&P 500 - March 2009 to February 2011 The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not guarantee of future results. Source: Yahoo Finance
6. The Headlines Aren’t Helping Danger! Falling middle-class incomes Home prices falling again Will Baby Boomers Bankrupt Social Security? Indices Tumble on Fears about Egypt Fear of Catastrophic Crash Despite Rising Bull Market
12. Consider the Impact of Emotions Common Behavioral Issues for Investors Fear and Greed Overconfidence Short-Term Perspective Familiarity Fallacy Chasing What's Hot
19. Asset Allocation: Making Tactical Decisions The LPL Financial Research team believes that fundamental, valuation, and technical factors form the basis of a sound investment-decision making process.
25. Case Study – Income Needs Analysis Step 1: Determine average expenses and income needs This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. Basic (Food, Clothing, Shelter) Lifestyle Total average expenses per year Basic (Food, Clothing, Shelter) Lifestyle Total annual guaranteed income goal $84,000 $84,000 $18,000 $102,000 $0 $84,000 5 Expected income goal per year at retirement Retirement income goal to be realized in (years)
26. Case Study – Income Needs Analysis Step 2: Analyze current income for shortfalls This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. Qualified income (Pensions, Annuities, etc.) Non-qualified income (Social Security, etc.) Total income Current income Income goal Income shortfall $24,000 $14,400 $38,400 $84,000 $45,600 $38,400 Expected current income sources at retirement Expected income shortfall at retirement
27. Case Study – Income Needs Analysis Step 3: Inventory current assets Qualified assets (IRAs, SEPs, 403b plans, 401k plans) Non-qualified assets (Mutual Funds, Stocks, Bonds, CDs) Insurance-based assets (Variable Annuities, Insurance products)* *Can be qualified or non-qualified Total $950,000 $575,000 $0 $1,525,000
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31. Case Study – Income Needs Analysis Step 4: Reposition assets to pursue desired income goal Repositioning assets You could reposition a portion of your non-guaranteed assets into a product with optional insurance features that delivers guaranteed income. Such features carry additional cost and may be subject to restrictions and limitations. You have indicated that you plan on retiring in five years. By repositioning $983,374 of your non-guaranteed assets into an annuity strategy with a living benefit that offers a guaranteed 4% compounding interest growth rate and 3% for life at the time of your first withdrawal, you would generate an additional $45,600 in guaranteed income to cover your guaranteed income shortfall while still maintaining control of your assets. Income goal ($ per year) Income shortfall ($ per year) Assets Reposition $983,374 from non-guaranteed assets into assets to generate $45,600 in guaranteed income
32. Consider Sequence of Returns Risk Both scenarios average a 7% annualized return. Examples shown are hypothetical and are not representative of any specific situation and are not indicative of future predictions of the performance of any investments. Your results will vary. All income is assumed reinvested . This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation or product. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of returns used do not reflect the deduction of the fees and charges inherent to investing.
33. Consider Sequence of Returns Risk Examples shown are hypothetical and are not representative of any specific situation and are not indicative of future predictions of the performance of any investments. Your results will vary. All income is assumed reinvested. Both scenarios average a 7% annualized return.
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35. Your investment portfolio should reflect not only your financial needs but also your attitudes toward risk, savings, and wealth. Implementing an effective asset allocation potentially helps drive that balance between risk and reward. Your financial advisor has the tools and resources to help you decide which investment strategy can potentially meet your income needs. Case Study – Discretionary Income Solution
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37. Disclosures The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. High yield/junk bonds are not investment grade securities, involve substantial risks and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. Investing in mutual funds involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Investments in specialized industry sectors have additional risks, which are outlined in the prospectus. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment company, variable annuity contracts and sub-accounts carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about the investment company, variable annuity contract and sub-accounts. You can obtain fund, contract and underlying sub-account prospectuses from your financial representative. Read the prospectuses carefully before investing. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC. This material has been prepared by LPL Financial. Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit
38. Disclosures Neither LPL Financial nor any of its affiliates make a market in the investment being discusses nor has LPL Financial or its affiliates or its officers have a financial interest in any securities of the issuer whose investment is being recommended nor has LPL Financial or its affiliate managed or co-managed a public offering of any securities of the issuer in the past 12 months. Indexes: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC. This material has been prepared by LPL Financial. Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit
39. Thank You A Registered Investment Advisor Member FINRA/SIPC Tracking 711120
Notas del editor
We have experienced unprecedented times in the financial markets During times of volatility, it is important to stick with a disciplined plan and process Let’s talk about where we have been and some ideas around where we are now as well as what to do going forward. First we’ll take an historical look at the financial markets The investment consulting process What to do now Tax management opportunities
Today we are going to talk about – read bullets.
The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS Mortgage Backed Securities (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass through), ABS (U.S. Fixed-Rate Asset-Backed Securities Index), and CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) The duration is varied depending on the type of bond. Based on the information below, it ranges from 1 to 10 years or more for long term bonds. The details for specific types are listed below.
In October 2007, the highest market close for the S&P 500 was 1565. On March 6, 2009, we hit an intra-day low of 667 on the S&P. This represents a 57 percent decline.
Since the low in March of 2009 the S&P has increased 100% as of mid-February 2011. But investor behavior indicates that many of them did not benefit from it to the extent that they should have.
If you watch the nightly news or read the newspaper headlines, you might think that we are in much worse shape than we actually are. The good news about the economy and corporate earnings really hasn’t been given much attention.
It is important to look at a whole market cycle instead of just a few months to see the longer term market cycles. Look at the one year, three year and five year returns following a recession.
According to the 2010 Spectrum Investor Sentiment Report - - As a result of the recession, almost 30% of affluent investors have increased their savings into conservative investment vehicles such as CDs and savings accounts.
Let’s move on to investor concerns about retirement – the number one concern is having enough money set aside for retirement.
Moreover - having a fixed income stream is very important to affluent investors for retirement across all age groups.
Read bullets on slide. When people think of performance they generally refer to one of the indexes, such as the S&P 500. Unfortunately it doesn’t necessarily mean they are getting the same performance in their portfolios. Let’s look at some reasons why individuals are underperforming the indices. The primary reasons that the investor underperforms the market are: Lack of a clearly defined strategy Having an undisciplined approach to investing Allowing emotions to drive decisions Being overconfident and having unrealistic expectations for performance
We are all subject to our emotions when it comes to making decisions. A good, long-term plan requires to the discipline to ride out the various storms. But all too often we see clients giving in to emotions, such as fear and greed. It is important to be aware of your own personal biases. When we talk about the familiarity fallacy for example, we are referring to investing in companies that you like and use but may not be solid investments. You may have a Ford F150 truck that has been very reliable for the past 10 years. But that doesn’t mean that Ford Motor Company is a good investment. Other issues that may be stumbling blocks are chasing the hot stock or sector and being the last one on the bandwagon before the bubble bursts.
Times like these do offer up some opportunities. Difficult markets force you to re-evaluate your risk tolerance—and it’s important to work with your advisor to refine your investment objective. Keep in mind that investing is a long term endeavor and you may need to tolerate the short term pains to take advantage of longer term gains. Working with your advisor and his team of experts at LPL Financial research can help you position your portfolio to capture the future return potential the market will eventually present. In so doing, you should remain broadly diversified to protect on the downside and participate on the upside.
As Financial Advisors with LPL Financial, we believe in team approach to meeting client needs.
Only you and your advisor know what your investment goals are and how much volatility makes sense. By using the expertise of the research team, your advisor can select the best portfolio for your investment goals. They believe in: - read bullets
Now let’s take a look at our LPL Financial Research Outlook. Read highpoints from the slide.
Let’s review a case study. The Green’s are age 60 and will retire at 65. (read income sources from slide) He has determined that his fixed expenses will be $84,000 per year, which includes things like food, clothing , shelter, insurance premiums etc. He also will need about $1500 per month for vacations and other discretionary spending activities. The Green’s are very concerned about having protected income for their fixed expenses. Let’s take a closer look.
While the Green’s would like protected income for their fixed expenses, they are open to different types of investment accounts for their other investable assets. First let’s explore the Green’s fixed income requirements
One may want to consider a variable annuity to provide income. Read slide
A variable annuity with a living benefit rider is an option to provide guaranteed income. Read slide
Read slide
Read slide highlights
Let’s take a closer look at the Sequence of Returns risk. Read slide Let’s look at an illustrated version.
In scenario A, the investor runs out of money at age 80, but in scenario B, the investor ends up with more money than he or she started with as a result of the three consecutive negative years beginning at age 77 instead of the first three years.
For the protected income requirement that the Green’s desire to cover their fixed expenses, they may want to consider a variable annuity with a living benefit option. Riders are additional guarantee options that are available to an annuity or life insurance contract holder. While some riders are part of an existing contract, many others carry additional fees, charges and restrictions, and the policy holder should review their contract carefully before purchasing.
Times like these do offer up some opportunities. Difficult markets force you to re-evaluate your risk tolerance—now may be the time to work with your advisor to refine your investment objective. Remember investing is a long term game and you may need to tolerate the short term pains to take advantage of longer term gains, therefore, in times like these you potentially need to work with your advisor to position your portfolio to capture the future return potential the market will eventually present. In so doing, you should remain broadly diversified to protect on the downside and participate on the upside. Set up an appointment to do a financial health check and review your financial assessment Determine whether advanced portfolios designed for specific needs, tactically managed and managed by leading strategists fits your situation
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