E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity

1. Central Texas Education Trends
Raise Your Hand Texas
Community Leadership in Education Forum
October 22, 2013
Susan Dawson www.e3alliance.org
Twitter: #E3Alliance
© 2013 E3 Alliance

2. E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational
Change in Central Texas
Mission
E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused
community collaboration to align our education
systems so all students succeed and lead
Central Texas to economic prosperity
© 2013 E3 Alliance

3. 157
Students
© 2013 E3 Alliance

4. 314
Students
© 2013 E3 Alliance

5. ?
X
X
X
?
X
X
X
X
X
X
Students
X
?
?
?
120?
157
X
?
?
?
X
X
X
X
X
?
X
X
??
?
X
X
?
X
?
© 2013 E3 Alliance
?
X

6. Overall, too few students
 Graduate high school
 Go to college, and
 Get a post-secondary degree
To meet the needs of our region in a
globally competitive economy
© 2013 E3 Alliance

7. Without Systemic Change, Attainment Will Drop
40% Projected % of Texas Population Ages 18 to 65 by Education Outcomes
Percent of Population
35%
30%
30%
25%
29%
29%
24%
20%
15%
29%
19%
18%
13%
10%
5%
7%
4%
0%
No HS Diploma HS Graduate Some College
2000
2040
Bachelor's
Degree
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Grad/Prof
Degree
7

8. Economic Benefits to Region and State
are Huge!
Benefits of “Closing the Gaps” to college”:
• Cumulative Additional Output = $1.897 trillion
by 2030
• Over 1,000,000 new jobs for the State
• Central Texas MSA:
 $41B in increased spending
 $9.7B increase in personal income
 85,250 permanent new jobs
Source: A Tale of Two States and One Million Jobs by
the Perryman Group, 2007
© 2013 E3 Alliance

9. Demographic and
Education Trends and
Outcomes
© 2013 E3 Alliance

10. Pop Quiz: Population Changes
The Central Texas Low Income student
population is growing at about _____ the rate of
the overall student population in Texas.
A: the same
B: twice
C: 4 1/2 times
D: a gazillion times
© 2013 E3 Alliance

11. Answer is C: Low Income Students are Growing
at 4 ½ X the Rate of all Texas Students
Texas
20%
Central Texas
39%
CTX Hispanic
80%
CTX Low Income
90%
CTX ELL
105%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Population Growth From 2002 to 2012
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of district-level AEIS and United States Census data
© 2013 E3 Alliance
120%

12. Central Texas Income Distribution
by School District 10 Years Ago…
© 2013 E3 Alliance

13. …And District Income Levels Last Year
© 2013 E3 Alliance

14. Almost 1 in 3 Central Texas Children Born to
Mothers without HS Diplomas
28%
Central
Texas
Overall
Source: United Way Capital Area Success by 6, 2009 Indicator Report
© 2013 E3 Alliance

15. Poverty Areas Lack Accredited ECE Centers
© 2013 E3 Alliance

16. Just Over Half of Central Texas Students
Are Ready to Succeed in School
Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas 2010 to 2012
Not Ready
Not Ready,
47%
50%
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Ready, Set, K! Weighted Data
Ready
Ready,
53%
50%
© 2013 E3 Alliance

17. TAKS Passing Rate
Achievement Gaps Closing
8th Grade Reading TAKS Passing Rates,
Central Texas Districts 2003-11
8th Grade Math TAKS Passing Rates,
Central Texas Districts 2003-11
100%
Percentage
Who
Met
Minimum
Standard
Percentage
Who
Met
Minimum
Standard
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Test
Year
Test
Year
Hispanic
African
American
Source: E3 Alliance Analysis of TEA Data
White
Low
Income
Hispanic
African
American
White
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Low
Income

18. Gaps in TAKS Scale Scores Persist
8th Grade Reading TAKS Scale Scores,
Central Texas Districts 2003-11
8th Grade Math TAKS Scale Scores,
Central Texas Districts 2003-11
2500
2400
2400
Average
TAKS
Score
2600
2500
Average
TAKS
Score
2600
2300
2200
2100
2300
2200
2100
2000
2000
1900
1900
1800
1800
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Test
Year
Test
Year
Hispanic
African
American
White
Low
Income
Hispanic
African
American
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of TAKS data
© 2013 E3 Alliance
White
Low
Income

19. Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs
A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income
to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is :
A: JPMorgan Chase “London whale” trading
fines
B: The annual cost of deer crashes in
Pennsylvania
C: The total investment in the Long Center for
Performing Arts
D: Annual budget of the UT Athletics Department
© 2013 E3 Alliance

20. A conservative estimate of the cost in lost
income to Central Texas of one class of drop
outs is: Answer B. is correct
$450 million
Deer crashes in Pennsylvania cost
over $400M each year.
We could buy FIVE Long Centers
for each class year of drop outs!
or we could buy 4 UT Athletics Departments.
© 2013 E3 Alliance

21. One in Four Central Texas Graduates Complete
College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School
High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in
Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005
58%
of 12,561 HS Graduates
Enrolled Within 1 year
47%
Persisted into 2nd Year
Persisted into 3rd Year*
40%
Persisted into 4th Year**
Completed Within 6 Years
35%
27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Percentage of High School Graduates
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center
© 2013 E3 Alliance
100%
21

22. One in Ten Low Income Graduates Complete College
Within 6 Years of Finishing High School
Not Low Income
High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in
Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005
68%
58%
Enrolled Within 1 year
51%
Persisted into 2nd Year
45%
Persisted into 3rd Year*
37%
Persisted into 4th Year**
Low Income
39%
Completed Within 6 Years
27%
20%
16%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Percentage of High School Graduates
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center
© 2013 E3 Alliance
100%
22

23. Unemployment Rates Map to
Educational Attainment
Unemployment Rate
16
US Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Less than High School Degree
Some College or Associate's Degree
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
High School Degree
Bachelor's Degree or higher
© 2013 E3 Alliance
2011

24. What’s the Problem?
• Institutions are disconnected horizontally & vertically
• Great teachers are key – but not well paid, not
incented to perform, not staying in the field
• Data often doesn’t exist to understand where the true
leverage points and bottlenecks are
• Culture & bureaucracy averse to change
• Adult culture of learning is weak
• As the student population is increasing and becoming
harder to serve, we have decreased funding
• Lots of great things happening – but disconnected,
inconsistent, competing for funds
© 2013 E3 Alliance