South Asia Security Trends for Week ending 03 June denotes an increase in the level of violence in Afghanistan with the spring summer campaign in full swing while the familiar political travails continue in rest of the region particularly Nepal and Bnalgadesh

1. SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY TRENDS
WEEK ENDING 03 JUNE 2012
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2. Afghanistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Increase in violence as • Continued violence due to
spring campaigning summer campaigning
enhances activity by both seasons.
sides. • Russia – China may expand
• Hizb Islami Afghanistan engagement
suspends talks announcements likely at
SCO.
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3. Bangladesh
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Political differences • Hopes of political
continue even though BNP rapprochement remote as
says willing for dialogue. contestations continue
• Bangladesh wants India to though some relief by High
deliver on various Court to opposition law
agreements made at the makers likely.
PM level.
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4. Bhutan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Rupee crunch continues • Some relief on Rupee front
as India may intervene.
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5. Maldives
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Hopes of political • Sustained Trend - Political
reconciliation dwindle as All differences to remain
Party Talks fail. contested.
• Three way political
split, MDP, PPM and others
likely.
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6. Myanmar
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• India Myanmar relations • Likely differences over Suu
receive a fillip during visit of Kyi visit to Thailand as same
Indian Prime Minister to status accorded as
Myanmar. Myanmar President.
• Suu Kyi visits Thailand on
first external trip.
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7. Nepal
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Political Crisis continues. • Efforts to build political
• Opposition demands consensus continue.
resignation of Prime • Political crisis and
Minister Bhattarai. deterioration in law and
• President says will only be order situation likely with
guided by political opposition bandh on 8 June.
consensus for future course
of action.
• Differences within Maoists
Dahal-Bhattarai and Baidya-
Thapa factions widen.
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8. Pakistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Defence Budget enhanced • US Pakistan negotiations to
for 2012-13 by 10 percent open NATO supply route.
plus. • Possible launch of
• Tests of Hatf series of operations in North
missiles ongoing. Waziristan by Pak Army.
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9. Sri Lanka
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Sri Lanka Foreign and • Continued contestations on
Defence Minister outline mechanisms for resolution
regional security role in of ethnic differences.
Shangri la dialogue
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10. India Foreign Policy
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• India Iran relations pose a • Indo Pakistan talks on
challenge with increased US Siachen 10-11
pressure and visit of the June, however no
Iranian Foreign Minister to breakthrough expected.
New Delhi to invite Indian
Prime Minister for NAM
Summit in August.
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11. India Defence
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Financial powers of service • Indo US Defence Minister
chiefs doubled by Minister level talks on 6 June.
of Defence.
• Shangri la dialogue, Defence
Minister expresses concern
on freedom of the
seas, heavy Chinese
spending on arms.
• General Bikram Singh takes
over as Army Chief.
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12. India Politics and Terrorism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Anti Corruption civil society • Red Alert on terror threats
group - Team Anna targets in metros likely to continue
Prime Minister, other
ministers for corruption. But
seems to be losing balance
and dissonance within
surfaces.
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13. Jammu and Kashmir
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Dip in levels of militancy • Continuing trends - Terror
claims DGP of State. encounters likely but will be
away from the tourist spots.
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14. North East
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Clashes in Nagaland • Continued trends - North
between terrorist groups. East separatist and Naxal
menace combination may
raise threat profile in
Assam.
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15. Left Wing Extremism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• National Investigation • Naxal bandh 5 to 12
Agency (NIA) takes lead in June, increased level of
investigation on funds violence anticipated.
flow, nexus between
militant groups.
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16. Note
• Trends are qualitative probabilistic
assessments based on news reports and may
undergo variation thus application has to be
based on assessments by individuals and
groups based on their operating environment.
• For detailed trend analysis subscription
required query email rkbhonsle@gmail.com
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