Update on the Northern Ireland housing market recovery

1. Slide 1
Mortgage activity in 2014 is less than half of 2006 levels. FTB
market has posted the most meaningful recovery so far
N.Ireland Mortgage & Remortgage Activity Levels
2006 = 100
-52%
-20%
-69%
-77%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 Q4 2008 Q4 2010 Q4 2012 Q4 2014 Q4
All Mortgages First-Time Buyers Home Movers Remortgages
Source: CML

2. Slide 2
Home Mover mortgage activity is on the rise but remains at
abnormally low levels
NI Mortgage Activity
Loans for Home Movers
-
5
10
15
20
25
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
000s
Source: CML
No data available

3. Slide 3
Mortgage activity on the rise but remains at historically low levels
NI Mortgage Activity
All Loans for House Purchase
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
000s
Source: CML
No data available

4. Slide 4
Residential property transactions and prices posting year-
on-year increases
NI Residential Property Price Index
Year-on-Year Growth Rates
-75%
-60%
-45%
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
2005 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4
Y/Y
-75%
-60%
-45%
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
Y/Y
Residential Property Prices Transactions
Source: DFP RPPI

5. Slide 5
In 2013 housing starts fell below the 5k mark for the first
time in 35 years
Northern Ireland Housing Starts
Rolling Annual Sum
3.8k
3.1k
5.2k
5.5k
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
1979 1982 1986 1989 1993 1996 2000 2003 2007 2010 2014*
Private Sector Total
Source: DSD, *4 quarters to Q1 2014
4.1k

6. Slide 6
NI house prices have increased by 13% from their low but
remain 51% below their 2007 peak
NI v UK v RoI Residential Property Prices
Quarterly
-51% below peak
-38% below
peak
12% above
pre-downturn peak
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2005 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4
Index Q1 2005 =
100
NI (RPPI) RoI UK ONS*
Source: DFP, CSO, ONS* includes mortgages only

7. Slide 7
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