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Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  and	
  
Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  
Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Overview	
  and	
  Introduc-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
February	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Introduc-on	
  
•  An	
  Introduc-on	
  and	
  Overview	
  -­‐	
  Feb	
  23	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Qualita9ve	
  Informa9on	
  –	
  Apr	
  5	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Quan9ta9ve	
  Informa9on	
  	
  -­‐	
  May	
  24	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  mul9ple	
  streams	
  &	
  big	
  data	
  -­‐	
  July	
  5	
  	
  
•  U9lizing	
  visualiza9on	
  –	
  Sep	
  13	
  	
  
•  Presen9ng	
  the	
  story	
  -­‐	
  Nov	
  8	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Why?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Movie	
  Popcorn	
  
Center	
  for	
  Science	
  in	
  the	
  Public	
  Interest	
  (CSPI)	
  
In	
  1994	
  it	
  revealed	
  
Medium	
  bag	
  of	
  popcorn	
  =	
  37	
  grams	
  saturated	
  fat	
  
	
  
USDA	
  (United	
  Stated	
  Department	
  for	
  Agriculture)	
  
Recommended	
  maximum	
  =	
  20	
  grams	
  
Made	
  to	
  S9ck	
  –	
  Chip	
  and	
  Dan	
  Heath	
  
20	
  
37	
  
0	
  
20	
  
40	
  
Grams	
  Fat	
  
USDA	
  
Popcorn	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Robust	
  Simplifica-on	
  
Movie	
  Popcorn	
  Data	
  
About	
  double	
  your	
  daily	
  fat	
  allowance	
  
Visual	
  Story	
  
A	
  day’s	
  worth	
  of	
  unhealthy	
  food	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Movie	
  Popcorn	
  
What	
  was	
  leN	
  out?	
  
•  Other	
  things	
  in	
  the	
  popcorn,	
  e.g.	
  salt	
  &	
  sugar	
  
•  Large	
  bag	
  of	
  popcorn	
  
•  Other	
  foods	
  eaten	
  in	
  movie	
  theatres	
  
•  Other	
  comparators,	
  e.g.	
  normal	
  daily	
  meal	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Movie	
  Popcorn	
  
Think,	
  Feel,	
  Do	
  
•  Think,	
  the	
  ‘facts’:	
  	
  
–  Popcorn	
  has	
  saturated	
  fat,	
  saturated	
  fat	
  is	
  not	
  good,	
  there	
  
are	
  limits	
  
•  Feel	
  
–  3	
  junk	
  meals	
  in	
  one	
  day	
  is	
  dumb/gross	
  
•  Do	
  
–  When	
  you	
  are	
  about	
  to	
  buy	
  popcorn,	
  think	
  about	
  all	
  that	
  
fat,	
  feel	
  a	
  bit	
  sick/scared,	
  do	
  trade	
  down	
  or	
  out	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
3	
  Steps	
  
1.  Find	
  the	
  story	
  
2.  Create	
  the	
  story	
  
3.  Communicate	
  the	
  story	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Created	
  by	
  Dudolf	
  
hdps://goo.gl/uwB4Ru	
  
Where	
  is	
  
the	
  Panda?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  the	
  Story	
  
Intui-ve	
  Genius	
  
– Great	
  at	
  finding	
  the	
  message	
  in	
  the	
  data,	
  just	
  
seems	
  to	
  play	
  around	
  with	
  the	
  numbers	
  and	
  out	
  
pops	
  the	
  story	
  
– Usually	
  bad	
  at	
  training	
  others	
  and	
  ohen	
  poor	
  at	
  
working	
  in	
  teams	
  
Systema-c	
  approach	
  
– Frameworks	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Frameworks	
  
Most	
  of	
  the	
  teams	
  that	
  reliably	
  produce	
  good	
  analysis	
  
and	
  useful	
  stories	
  use	
  frameworks	
  
–  Individuals	
  are	
  less	
  dependent	
  on	
  frameworks	
  
Elements	
  of	
  frameworks	
  
–  How	
  to	
  frame	
  the	
  problem	
  
–  Linking	
  the	
  project	
  to	
  a	
  wider	
  context	
  
–  A	
  standard	
  method	
  of	
  organising	
  the	
  data	
  (qual	
  and	
  quant)	
  
–  Systema9c	
  methods	
  of	
  analysing	
  data	
  
–  A	
  preferred	
  method	
  for	
  extrac9ng	
  the	
  story	
  and	
  linking	
  it	
  
to	
  the	
  wider	
  context	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Define	
  the	
  Problem	
  
“A	
  problem	
  defined	
  is	
  a	
  problem	
  half-­‐solved”	
  
Sources	
  of	
  informa9on:	
  
–  The	
  request	
  for	
  a	
  study	
  
–  The	
  proposal	
  
–  Discussions	
  between	
  sponsor,	
  insight	
  team	
  and	
  supplier	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  background	
  to	
  the	
  project?	
  
•  What	
  would	
  success	
  look	
  like?	
  
•  What	
  ac9ons	
  should	
  follow	
  from	
  the	
  research?	
  
•  What	
  do	
  people	
  think	
  the	
  results	
  are	
  going	
  to	
  be?	
  
(Or,	
  what	
  are	
  the	
  prevalent	
  hypotheses?)	
  
Smith	
  &	
  Fletcher,	
  2004	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Establish	
  What	
  is	
  Already	
  Known	
  
•  The	
  frameworks	
  approach	
  avoids	
  focusing	
  on	
  
just	
  the	
  current	
  research	
  project	
  
•  The	
  analysis,	
  the	
  validity,	
  and	
  the	
  story	
  need	
  to	
  
blend	
  research	
  with	
  the	
  wider	
  context	
  
•  The	
  context	
  is	
  a	
  web	
  of	
  exis9ng	
  knowledge:	
  
–  Within	
  your	
  organisa9on	
  
–  Within	
  the	
  agency/supplier	
  
–  In	
  the	
  public	
  realm	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Who	
  is	
  the	
  project	
  for?	
  	
  _________________	
  
	
  
What	
  is	
  the	
  business	
  issue/problem	
  that	
  is	
  being	
  addressed?	
  
__________________________________________________	
  
	
  
What	
  does	
  the	
  business	
  want	
  to	
  do,	
  once	
  it	
  has	
  addressed	
  this	
  issue?	
  
______________________________________________________	
  
	
  
What	
  do	
  we	
  already	
  know?	
  
	
  Item 	
  Held	
  by: 	
  Descrip-on	
  
1  	
   	
  ______ 	
  ______ 	
  ______________	
  
2  	
   	
  ______ 	
  ______ 	
  ______________	
  
3  	
   	
  ______ 	
  ______ 	
  ______________	
  
	
  
Assump-ons	
  and	
  predic-ons	
  
	
  Who 	
  What	
  
1.  	
   	
  ______ 	
  ______	
  
2.  	
   	
  ______ 	
  ______	
  
Simplified	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Assembling	
  the	
  Evidence	
  
•  Quan9ta9ve	
  
– Standardize?	
  Missing	
  Data?	
  Indexing?	
  Re-­‐basing?	
  
•  Qualita9ve	
  
– Transla9ons?	
  Transcripts?	
  Notes?	
  
•  The	
  nature	
  of	
  the	
  sources	
  
– Credibility?	
  Bias?	
  Interac9ons?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Is	
  My	
  Data	
  Right?	
  
We	
  see	
  paderns,	
  even	
  
when	
  they	
  are	
  not	
  there.	
  
	
  
Image	
  from	
  Viking	
  I,	
  1976	
  
Mars	
  –	
  led	
  to	
  theories	
  of	
  
intelligent	
  life.	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Spurious	
  Correla-ons	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Normalizing	
  by	
  
Growth	
  Paerns	
  
Forbes:	
  hdp://bit.ly/NewMR_208	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Different	
  Perspec-ves	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Findings	
  Need	
  a	
  Comparator	
  
RFID	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  and	
  communica-ng	
  
the	
  story	
  in	
  health	
  data	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Bad	
  news	
  for	
  men	
  in	
  Eastern	
  Europe	
  
Eurostat	
  -­‐	
  hdp://goo.gl/r2q526	
  
Amenable	
  Deaths	
  Per	
  100000	
  of	
  popula9on	
  -­‐	
  2012	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Over	
  100,000	
  Avoidable	
  Deaths	
  	
  
in	
  England	
  and	
  Wales	
  
	
  114,740	
  	
  
	
  393,050	
  	
  
2013,	
  England	
  and	
  Wales	
  506,790	
  Deaths	
  	
  
Avoidable	
  
Other	
  
UK	
  Office	
  for	
  Na9onal	
  Sta9s9cs:	
  hdp://goo.gl/oJYMgo	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
USA	
  and	
  Smoking	
  
Leading	
  cause	
  preventable	
  deaths	
  
hdp://www.cdc.gov/healthreport/publica9ons/compendium.pdf	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Embedding	
  Frameworks	
  
•  Establish	
  your	
  framework	
  
•  Share	
  it	
  with	
  colleagues	
  
•  Share	
  it	
  with	
  suppliers	
  
•  New	
  projects	
  designed	
  to	
  produce	
  inputs	
  that	
  
work	
  well	
  with	
  the	
  framework	
  you	
  are	
  using	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  the	
  Story	
  
1.  Know	
  what	
  the	
  ques9on	
  is.	
  Have	
  an	
  idea	
  of	
  
what	
  success	
  looks	
  like.	
  
2.  What	
  is	
  the	
  big	
  story?	
  
–  What	
  do	
  most	
  people	
  do?	
  Why	
  do	
  most	
  people	
  do	
  it?	
  
3.  What	
  are	
  the	
  relevant	
  excep9ons?	
  
4.  Determine	
  how	
  the	
  message	
  in	
  the	
  data	
  
answers	
  the	
  business	
  ques9on	
  and	
  crah	
  that	
  as	
  
a	
  story.	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Find	
  the	
  Total	
  Picture	
  First	
  
Then	
  the	
  relevant	
  detail	
  
Quant	
  
•  Look	
  at	
  the	
  Total	
  Column	
  
•  Look	
  for	
  big	
  numbers	
  and	
  
big	
  paderns	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  big	
  picture?	
  
•  This	
  will	
  frame	
  the	
  detail	
  
Qual	
  
•  Read	
  the	
  transcripts	
  
•  Create	
  notes	
  and	
  memos	
  
•  How	
  does	
  it	
  compare	
  with	
  
what	
  is	
  already	
  known	
  
•  What	
  are	
  the	
  main	
  
messages	
  
In	
  the	
  context	
  of	
  the	
  Business	
  Ques9on	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
The	
  Tenuous	
  Link	
  Between	
  Finding	
  
the	
  Story	
  and	
  Telling	
  the	
  Story	
  
•  In	
  finding	
  the	
  story	
  we	
  have	
  mul9ple	
  data	
  sources	
  
•  We	
  have	
  differing	
  degrees	
  of	
  confidence	
  in	
  those	
  
sources	
  
–  A	
  conjoint	
  study	
  with	
  consul9ng	
  surgeons	
  might	
  be	
  our	
  
best	
  source	
  for	
  finding	
  the	
  story	
  
•  The	
  best	
  way	
  to	
  convey	
  the	
  story	
  does	
  not	
  have	
  to	
  rest	
  
on	
  the	
  ‘best’	
  data	
  
–  A	
  vox	
  pop	
  video	
  with	
  a	
  customer	
  might	
  be	
  a	
  poor	
  way	
  to	
  
find	
  the	
  story,	
  but	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  a	
  great	
  way	
  to	
  tell	
  the	
  story	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
The	
  Lead	
  
Nora	
  Ephron	
  
When	
  Harry	
  Met	
  Sally	
  
Sleepless	
  in	
  Sea8le	
  
1st	
  Day	
  in	
  Journalism	
  School	
  
5	
  Ws	
  (Who,	
  What,	
  When,	
  Where	
  &	
  Why?)	
  
	
  
Asked	
  to	
  write	
  the	
  Lead	
  for	
  the	
  school	
  newspaper	
  	
  
“The	
  en9re	
  school	
  faculty	
  will	
  travel	
  to	
  Sacramento	
  next	
  
Thursday	
  for	
  a	
  colloquium	
  in	
  new	
  teaching	
  methods.	
  
Among	
  the	
  speakers	
  will	
  be	
  anthropologist	
  Margaret	
  
Mead,	
  college	
  president	
  Dr.	
  Robert	
  Maynard	
  Hutchins,	
  and	
  
California	
  Governor	
  Edmund	
  Brown.”	
  
	
  
All	
  the	
  students	
  wrote	
  about	
  the	
  5Ws	
  –	
  good,	
  but	
  not	
  
right.	
  
	
  
The	
  Lead?	
  
No	
  school	
  next	
  Thursday!	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
The	
  Cartographer	
  and	
  the	
  Journalist	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
What	
  are	
  the	
  key	
  findings?	
  
1.  Link	
  to	
  the	
  project	
  objec9ves	
  
2.  ‘Need	
  to	
  know’	
  not	
  ‘nice	
  to	
  know’	
  
3.  Supported	
  by	
  paderns	
  or	
  themes	
  in	
  the	
  data	
  
–  Not	
  just	
  a	
  single	
  data	
  point	
  
4.  Clear	
  findings	
  
–  Re-­‐work	
  the	
  data	
  groupings	
  to	
  make	
  the	
  findings	
  
clearer	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Developing	
  your	
  narra-ve	
  theme	
  
•  Select	
  your	
  primary	
  axis	
  
•  This	
  is	
  the	
  elevator	
  pitch	
  
•  Use	
  a	
  structure	
  that	
  works	
  with	
  the	
  audience	
  
•  Typical	
  USA	
  structure	
  
–  The	
  main	
  finding	
  was	
  X,	
  so	
  we	
  recommend	
  Y	
  &	
  Z	
  
–  Now,	
  let’s	
  tells	
  you	
  why	
  it	
  is	
  X,	
  and	
  why	
  are	
  it’s	
  Y	
  &	
  Z	
  
–  But	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  different	
  in	
  different	
  places	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Good	
  news?	
  Bad	
  news?	
  
Hypotheses	
  and	
  beliefs	
  crucial	
  
•  Good	
  news	
  
•  Good	
  news	
  with	
  warnings	
  
•  Bad	
  news,	
  but	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  ameliorated	
  
•  Bad	
  news	
  
“It’s	
  good	
  and	
  bad”	
  means	
  you	
  don’t	
  understand	
  the	
  problem,	
  the	
  data,	
  or	
  both	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Hans	
  Rosling	
  
The	
  impact	
  of	
  religion	
  on	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  babies	
  per	
  woman	
  
hdps://goo.gl/nwZq29	
  
	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Some	
  people	
  say	
  
Popula9on	
  will	
  keep	
  growing	
  
Because	
  some	
  religions	
  stop	
  women	
  from	
  having	
  few	
  babies	
  
Is	
  it	
  true?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Had	
  to	
  crate	
  
their	
  own	
  
map.	
  Size	
  of	
  
bubbles	
  =	
  
popula9on	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
In	
  1960	
  you	
  had	
  
to	
  be	
  rich	
  and	
  
Chris9an	
  to	
  have	
  
few	
  babies	
  per	
  
woman	
  &	
  be	
  rich	
  
–	
  or	
  be	
  Japan	
  
But	
  in	
  La9n	
  
America	
  and	
  
Africa,	
  many	
  
countries	
  were	
  
Chris9an,	
  poor,	
  
and	
  had	
  many	
  
babies	
  per	
  
woman	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Uses	
  9me	
  as	
  narra9ve	
  
axis.	
  Showing	
  number	
  
of	
  babies	
  falling,	
  across	
  
religions,	
  irrespec9ve	
  of	
  
wealth.	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
By	
  2010	
  about	
  
80%	
  of	
  people	
  
live	
  in	
  countries	
  
with	
  2	
  babies	
  
per	
  woman.	
  	
  
All	
  Eastern	
  religion	
  
countries	
  about	
  2	
  babies	
  
per	
  woman.	
  
Propor9on	
  of	
  Chris9an	
  and	
  
Islam	
  majority	
  countries	
  
similar.	
  
You	
  can	
  be	
  poor	
  and	
  have	
  
few	
  babies,	
  but	
  not	
  VERY	
  
poor.	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Hans	
  Rosling	
  
hdps://goo.gl/nwZq29	
  
	
  
Watch	
  the	
  whole	
  video	
  
Plenty	
  more	
  points	
  made	
  
What	
  Rosling	
  did	
  to	
  get	
  to	
  his	
  story?	
  
How	
  does	
  the	
  story	
  work?	
  
What	
  did	
  he	
  leave	
  out	
  and	
  why?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
The	
  Big	
  Picture	
  
•  Frameworks	
  for	
  reliable	
  /	
  effec9ve	
  stories	
  
•  Define	
  the	
  problem	
  
•  Find	
  the	
  main	
  message	
  
•  Remove	
  anything	
  that	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  story	
  
•  Is	
  it	
  good	
  or	
  bad	
  news,	
  confirming	
  or	
  challenging	
  
expecta9ons/beliefs	
  
•  Engaging,	
  memorable,	
  simple	
  story	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Schedule	
  
•  An	
  Introduc-on	
  and	
  Overview	
  -­‐	
  Feb	
  23	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Qualita9ve	
  Informa9on	
  –	
  Apr	
  5	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Quan9ta9ve	
  Informa9on	
  	
  -­‐	
  May	
  24	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  mul9ple	
  streams	
  &	
  big	
  data	
  -­‐	
  July	
  5	
  	
  
•  U9lizing	
  visualiza9on	
  –	
  Sep	
  13	
  	
  
•  Presen9ng	
  the	
  story	
  -­‐	
  Nov	
  8	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Further	
  Reading	
  
Published	
  by	
  Wiley,	
  2004	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Video	
  
Gegng	
  to	
  Great	
  Research	
  Stories	
  
hdp://newmr.org/play-­‐again/fes9val-­‐of-­‐newmr-­‐atlan9c-­‐monday/	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Thank	
  You!	
  
	
  
	
  
Follow	
  me	
  on	
  Twier	
  @RayPoynter	
  
	
  
Or	
  sign-­‐up	
  to	
  receive	
  our	
  weekly	
  mailing	
  at	
  	
  
hp://NewMR.org	
  	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  1	
  of	
  6	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Q	
  &	
  A	
  
Ray	
  Poynter	
  
The	
  Future	
  Place	
  

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Find and Communicate the Story - Ray Poynter - Lesson 1

  • 1. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Finding  and   Communica-ng  the  Story   Lesson  1  of  6   Overview  and  Introduc-on   Ray  Poynter         February  2016  
  • 2. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Introduc-on   •  An  Introduc-on  and  Overview  -­‐  Feb  23     •  Working  with  Qualita9ve  Informa9on  –  Apr  5     •  Working  with  Quan9ta9ve  Informa9on    -­‐  May  24     •  Working  with  mul9ple  streams  &  big  data  -­‐  July  5     •  U9lizing  visualiza9on  –  Sep  13     •  Presen9ng  the  story  -­‐  Nov  8    
  • 3. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Why?  
  • 4. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Movie  Popcorn   Center  for  Science  in  the  Public  Interest  (CSPI)   In  1994  it  revealed   Medium  bag  of  popcorn  =  37  grams  saturated  fat     USDA  (United  Stated  Department  for  Agriculture)   Recommended  maximum  =  20  grams   Made  to  S9ck  –  Chip  and  Dan  Heath   20   37   0   20   40   Grams  Fat   USDA   Popcorn  
  • 5. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Robust  Simplifica-on   Movie  Popcorn  Data   About  double  your  daily  fat  allowance   Visual  Story   A  day’s  worth  of  unhealthy  food  
  • 6. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Movie  Popcorn   What  was  leN  out?   •  Other  things  in  the  popcorn,  e.g.  salt  &  sugar   •  Large  bag  of  popcorn   •  Other  foods  eaten  in  movie  theatres   •  Other  comparators,  e.g.  normal  daily  meal  
  • 7. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Movie  Popcorn   Think,  Feel,  Do   •  Think,  the  ‘facts’:     –  Popcorn  has  saturated  fat,  saturated  fat  is  not  good,  there   are  limits   •  Feel   –  3  junk  meals  in  one  day  is  dumb/gross   •  Do   –  When  you  are  about  to  buy  popcorn,  think  about  all  that   fat,  feel  a  bit  sick/scared,  do  trade  down  or  out  
  • 8. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016  
  • 9. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   3  Steps   1.  Find  the  story   2.  Create  the  story   3.  Communicate  the  story  
  • 10. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Created  by  Dudolf   hdps://goo.gl/uwB4Ru   Where  is   the  Panda?  
  • 11. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Finding  the  Story   Intui-ve  Genius   – Great  at  finding  the  message  in  the  data,  just   seems  to  play  around  with  the  numbers  and  out   pops  the  story   – Usually  bad  at  training  others  and  ohen  poor  at   working  in  teams   Systema-c  approach   – Frameworks  
  • 12. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Frameworks   Most  of  the  teams  that  reliably  produce  good  analysis   and  useful  stories  use  frameworks   –  Individuals  are  less  dependent  on  frameworks   Elements  of  frameworks   –  How  to  frame  the  problem   –  Linking  the  project  to  a  wider  context   –  A  standard  method  of  organising  the  data  (qual  and  quant)   –  Systema9c  methods  of  analysing  data   –  A  preferred  method  for  extrac9ng  the  story  and  linking  it   to  the  wider  context  
  • 13. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Define  the  Problem   “A  problem  defined  is  a  problem  half-­‐solved”   Sources  of  informa9on:   –  The  request  for  a  study   –  The  proposal   –  Discussions  between  sponsor,  insight  team  and  supplier   •  What  is  the  background  to  the  project?   •  What  would  success  look  like?   •  What  ac9ons  should  follow  from  the  research?   •  What  do  people  think  the  results  are  going  to  be?   (Or,  what  are  the  prevalent  hypotheses?)   Smith  &  Fletcher,  2004  
  • 14. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Establish  What  is  Already  Known   •  The  frameworks  approach  avoids  focusing  on   just  the  current  research  project   •  The  analysis,  the  validity,  and  the  story  need  to   blend  research  with  the  wider  context   •  The  context  is  a  web  of  exis9ng  knowledge:   –  Within  your  organisa9on   –  Within  the  agency/supplier   –  In  the  public  realm  
  • 15. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Who  is  the  project  for?    _________________     What  is  the  business  issue/problem  that  is  being  addressed?   __________________________________________________     What  does  the  business  want  to  do,  once  it  has  addressed  this  issue?   ______________________________________________________     What  do  we  already  know?    Item  Held  by:  Descrip-on   1     ______  ______  ______________   2     ______  ______  ______________   3     ______  ______  ______________     Assump-ons  and  predic-ons    Who  What   1.     ______  ______   2.     ______  ______   Simplified  
  • 16. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Assembling  the  Evidence   •  Quan9ta9ve   – Standardize?  Missing  Data?  Indexing?  Re-­‐basing?   •  Qualita9ve   – Transla9ons?  Transcripts?  Notes?   •  The  nature  of  the  sources   – Credibility?  Bias?  Interac9ons?  
  • 17. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Is  My  Data  Right?   We  see  paderns,  even   when  they  are  not  there.     Image  from  Viking  I,  1976   Mars  –  led  to  theories  of   intelligent  life.  
  • 18. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Spurious  Correla-ons  
  • 19. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Normalizing  by   Growth  Paerns   Forbes:  hdp://bit.ly/NewMR_208  
  • 20. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Different  Perspec-ves  
  • 21. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Findings  Need  a  Comparator   RFID  
  • 22. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Finding  and  communica-ng   the  story  in  health  data  
  • 23. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Bad  news  for  men  in  Eastern  Europe   Eurostat  -­‐  hdp://goo.gl/r2q526   Amenable  Deaths  Per  100000  of  popula9on  -­‐  2012  
  • 24. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Over  100,000  Avoidable  Deaths     in  England  and  Wales    114,740      393,050     2013,  England  and  Wales  506,790  Deaths     Avoidable   Other   UK  Office  for  Na9onal  Sta9s9cs:  hdp://goo.gl/oJYMgo    
  • 25. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   USA  and  Smoking   Leading  cause  preventable  deaths   hdp://www.cdc.gov/healthreport/publica9ons/compendium.pdf  
  • 26. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Embedding  Frameworks   •  Establish  your  framework   •  Share  it  with  colleagues   •  Share  it  with  suppliers   •  New  projects  designed  to  produce  inputs  that   work  well  with  the  framework  you  are  using  
  • 27. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Finding  the  Story   1.  Know  what  the  ques9on  is.  Have  an  idea  of   what  success  looks  like.   2.  What  is  the  big  story?   –  What  do  most  people  do?  Why  do  most  people  do  it?   3.  What  are  the  relevant  excep9ons?   4.  Determine  how  the  message  in  the  data   answers  the  business  ques9on  and  crah  that  as   a  story.  
  • 28. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Find  the  Total  Picture  First   Then  the  relevant  detail   Quant   •  Look  at  the  Total  Column   •  Look  for  big  numbers  and   big  paderns   •  What  is  the  big  picture?   •  This  will  frame  the  detail   Qual   •  Read  the  transcripts   •  Create  notes  and  memos   •  How  does  it  compare  with   what  is  already  known   •  What  are  the  main   messages   In  the  context  of  the  Business  Ques9on  
  • 29. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   The  Tenuous  Link  Between  Finding   the  Story  and  Telling  the  Story   •  In  finding  the  story  we  have  mul9ple  data  sources   •  We  have  differing  degrees  of  confidence  in  those   sources   –  A  conjoint  study  with  consul9ng  surgeons  might  be  our   best  source  for  finding  the  story   •  The  best  way  to  convey  the  story  does  not  have  to  rest   on  the  ‘best’  data   –  A  vox  pop  video  with  a  customer  might  be  a  poor  way  to   find  the  story,  but  it  can  be  a  great  way  to  tell  the  story  
  • 30. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   The  Lead   Nora  Ephron   When  Harry  Met  Sally   Sleepless  in  Sea8le   1st  Day  in  Journalism  School   5  Ws  (Who,  What,  When,  Where  &  Why?)     Asked  to  write  the  Lead  for  the  school  newspaper     “The  en9re  school  faculty  will  travel  to  Sacramento  next   Thursday  for  a  colloquium  in  new  teaching  methods.   Among  the  speakers  will  be  anthropologist  Margaret   Mead,  college  president  Dr.  Robert  Maynard  Hutchins,  and   California  Governor  Edmund  Brown.”     All  the  students  wrote  about  the  5Ws  –  good,  but  not   right.     The  Lead?   No  school  next  Thursday!  
  • 31. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   The  Cartographer  and  the  Journalist  
  • 32. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   What  are  the  key  findings?   1.  Link  to  the  project  objec9ves   2.  ‘Need  to  know’  not  ‘nice  to  know’   3.  Supported  by  paderns  or  themes  in  the  data   –  Not  just  a  single  data  point   4.  Clear  findings   –  Re-­‐work  the  data  groupings  to  make  the  findings   clearer  
  • 33. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Developing  your  narra-ve  theme   •  Select  your  primary  axis   •  This  is  the  elevator  pitch   •  Use  a  structure  that  works  with  the  audience   •  Typical  USA  structure   –  The  main  finding  was  X,  so  we  recommend  Y  &  Z   –  Now,  let’s  tells  you  why  it  is  X,  and  why  are  it’s  Y  &  Z   –  But  it  can  be  different  in  different  places  
  • 34. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Good  news?  Bad  news?   Hypotheses  and  beliefs  crucial   •  Good  news   •  Good  news  with  warnings   •  Bad  news,  but  it  can  be  ameliorated   •  Bad  news   “It’s  good  and  bad”  means  you  don’t  understand  the  problem,  the  data,  or  both  
  • 35. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Hans  Rosling   The  impact  of  religion  on  the  number  of  babies  per  woman   hdps://goo.gl/nwZq29    
  • 36. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Some  people  say   Popula9on  will  keep  growing   Because  some  religions  stop  women  from  having  few  babies   Is  it  true?  
  • 37. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Had  to  crate   their  own   map.  Size  of   bubbles  =   popula9on  
  • 38. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   In  1960  you  had   to  be  rich  and   Chris9an  to  have   few  babies  per   woman  &  be  rich   –  or  be  Japan   But  in  La9n   America  and   Africa,  many   countries  were   Chris9an,  poor,   and  had  many   babies  per   woman  
  • 39. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Uses  9me  as  narra9ve   axis.  Showing  number   of  babies  falling,  across   religions,  irrespec9ve  of   wealth.  
  • 40. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   By  2010  about   80%  of  people   live  in  countries   with  2  babies   per  woman.     All  Eastern  religion   countries  about  2  babies   per  woman.   Propor9on  of  Chris9an  and   Islam  majority  countries   similar.   You  can  be  poor  and  have   few  babies,  but  not  VERY   poor.  
  • 41. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Hans  Rosling   hdps://goo.gl/nwZq29     Watch  the  whole  video   Plenty  more  points  made   What  Rosling  did  to  get  to  his  story?   How  does  the  story  work?   What  did  he  leave  out  and  why?  
  • 42. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   The  Big  Picture   •  Frameworks  for  reliable  /  effec9ve  stories   •  Define  the  problem   •  Find  the  main  message   •  Remove  anything  that  is  not  the  story   •  Is  it  good  or  bad  news,  confirming  or  challenging   expecta9ons/beliefs   •  Engaging,  memorable,  simple  story  
  • 43. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Schedule   •  An  Introduc-on  and  Overview  -­‐  Feb  23     •  Working  with  Qualita9ve  Informa9on  –  Apr  5     •  Working  with  Quan9ta9ve  Informa9on    -­‐  May  24     •  Working  with  mul9ple  streams  &  big  data  -­‐  July  5     •  U9lizing  visualiza9on  –  Sep  13     •  Presen9ng  the  story  -­‐  Nov  8    
  • 44. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Further  Reading   Published  by  Wiley,  2004  
  • 45. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Video   Gegng  to  Great  Research  Stories   hdp://newmr.org/play-­‐again/fes9val-­‐of-­‐newmr-­‐atlan9c-­‐monday/  
  • 46. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Thank  You!       Follow  me  on  Twier  @RayPoynter     Or  sign-­‐up  to  receive  our  weekly  mailing  at     hp://NewMR.org      
  • 47. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  1  of  6   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Q  &  A   Ray  Poynter   The  Future  Place