1. Cutting Down on Hydrocarbons:
The Hard Truth
Re-Energize the Americas 2012
Las Cruces, New Mexico
David Mendoza

2. Global Renewable Production
2000.0
588% Increase
1800.0
Since 1990!!
1600.0
1400.0
1200.0
TW-h
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
-
1990 2000 2010
Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

3. Global Hydrocarbon Production
vs
10,000
Global Renewable Production
Million tonnes oil equivalent
8,000
2011
10,900 million t.o.e.
6,000
4,000
2011
TOTAL Wind, Solar, Geo, Other 390 million t.o.e.
2,000
TOTAL Oil, Gas, Coal
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

4. Our way of life
And everything we know
Are built by hydrocarbons

5. 9.6 million flights in 2011
68.3 billion passenger-
miles world wide
Source: Air Transportation Association

6. 7.7 billion tonnes in 2008
32 trillion tonne-miles
world wide
Source: MARISEC

7. 1.7 billion tonnes of
freight moved by rail
in the US in 2009
Source: US International Trade Commission 2011

8. 2011 global cement
production: 3.6 billion tonnes
Source: European Cement Association 2011

9. 2011 global steel
production: 1.49
billion tonnes
Source: World Steel Association 2011

10. 2009 global flat
glass production:
230 million tonnes
Source: Report: Pilkington and the Flat Glass Industry (2010)

11. 2007 global
asphalt
production: 1.6
trillion tonnes
Source: European Asphalt Pavement Association 2007

12. 2009 global
plastic production:
230 million tonnes
Source: Report: Plastics – The Facts (2009)

13. 2011 global food crop
production: 2.77 billion tonnes
2011 global food fertilizer
production: 185 million tonnes
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service;
The Fertilizer Institute

14. 45 kg 57% 34% 8% + 1%
= + +
CO2 Production Charging Transportation Recycling
38.7 g stainless steel
40.9 g glass
24.7 g battery
15.4 g circuit board
7.2 g display
5.0 g other
3.1 g plastic
47,000,000 iPhones sold in 2010
Source: Apple iPhone 4 Environmental Report

15. The default option
is to maintain and enjoy
the status quo

17. But surely
this can’t last
forever

18. Droughts and Floods

19. Atmospheric CO2 & Melting Sea Ice

20. Billions of Chinese Want the American Lifestyle

21. The move away
from hydrocarbons
is inevitable.
But some hard,
complex, and uncomfortable
questions must be answered.

22. Questions that must be answered
How does this technology scale?
Who will pay for this?
How do you deal with the inherent intermittency of the technology?
How do you run society with low load factor technology?
What do you do with the $10 trillion in current oil & gas investment?

23. What are you willing to give up?

24. David Mendoza
David.Mendoza@EnergyTransfer.com