In BMI's Q210 update of the Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, Nigeria remains third-last of the 17 key regional markets and globally, only above Zimbabwe and Kenya. A sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Nigeria in a similarly lowly position in the MEA matrix over the coming months, despite its dynamic growth prospects and positive economic outlook. Having been valued at NGN90.04bn (US$600mn) in 2009, Nigeria's pharmaceutical market is forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.97% over our five-year forecast period to 2014, reaching NGN144.8bn (US$1.18bn). Measured in US dollar terms, the rate of growth will be even stronger, at over 14.3%, as the naira gains strength. Growth opportunities are also evident in the wider healthcare industry as the government increasingly recognises the need to improve patients' access to and the quality of medical services. To this end, in Q409, the government began negotiations with India's Apollo Hospital Group to enter joint investment projects for establishing private hospitals in the country. The Nigerian Health Minister also stated that Apollo would be required to secure its own supply chain to ensure participation, although a nation-wide improvement of hospital provision is a long way off. According to Indian newspaper Hindu Business Line, around US$250mn leaves Nigeria annually in the form of payment for treatment in foreign hospitals. In the meantime, government's efforts to tackle trade in counterfeit drugs continue apace. Borders and entry points into Nigeria are now targeted with a new hand-held device called TruScan, which analyses the content of medicines and validates whether they are genuine or not. The regulatory agency has also alluded to the use of text message-based technology to complement its new approach, which is aimed at making consumers more vigilant against the use or sale of illegal or counterfeit medicines. However, the aforementioned development will have little real impact on the national counterfeiting issue, as the fundamental problems surrounding the regulation of the pharmaceutical industry are yet to be properly addressed. We also forecast that the already substantially negative Nigerian trade balance in pharmaceuticals will deepen further, to US$337mn in 2014. Authorities ' which are aiming for the overly optimistic target of 2015 as the year of reaching self-sufficiency in terms of drug production ' have mooted the banning of a selection of foreign drugs from entering the country, a strategy strongly opposed by the Association of Pharmaceutical Importers (APIN) in Nigeria. The body cautioned that access to medicines would be severely hampered by such moves, as the local industry is unable to meet the demand ' partly due to manufacturing capacity limitations, but also as a result of frequent power outages and the lack of access to bank loans. Therefore, foreign generics players, including an increasing number of Indian and Pakistani companies, will continue to have plentiful opportunities for supplying the Nigerian market.

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Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2010
Published on February 2010
Report Summary
In BMI's Q210 update of the Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, Nigeria
remains third-last of the 17 key regional markets and globally, only above Zimbabwe and Kenya. A sizeable counterfeiting industry,
poor healthcare funding, corruption and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Nigeria in a similarly lowly position in the MEA
matrix over the coming months, despite its dynamic growth prospects and positive economic outlook. Having been valued at
NGN90.04bn (US$600mn) in 2009, Nigeria's pharmaceutical market is forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
9.97% over our five-year forecast period to 2014, reaching NGN144.8bn (US$1.18bn). Measured in US dollar terms, the rate of
growth will be even stronger, at over 14.3%, as the naira gains strength.
Growth opportunities are also evident in the wider healthcare industry as the government increasingly recognises the need to improve
patients' access to and the quality of medical services. To this end, in Q409, the government began negotiations with India's Apollo
Hospital Group to enter joint investment projects for establishing private hospitals in the country. The Nigerian Health Minister also
stated that Apollo would be required to secure its own supply chain to ensure participation, although a nation-wide improvement of
hospital provision is a long way off. According to Indian newspaper Hindu Business Line, around US$250mn leaves Nigeria annually
in the form of payment for treatment in foreign hospitals.
In the meantime, government's efforts to tackle trade in counterfeit drugs continue apace. Borders and entry points into Nigeria are
now targeted with a new hand-held device called TruScan, which analyses the content of medicines and validates whether they are
genuine or not. The regulatory agency has also alluded to the use of text message-based technology to complement its new
approach, which is aimed at making consumers more vigilant against the use or sale of illegal or counterfeit medicines. However, the
aforementioned development will have little real impact on the national counterfeiting issue, as the fundamental problems surrounding
the regulation of the pharmaceutical industry are yet to be properly addressed.
We also forecast that the already substantially negative Nigerian trade balance in pharmaceuticals will deepen further, to US$337mn
in 2014. Authorities ' which are aiming for the overly optimistic target of 2015 as the year of reaching self-sufficiency in terms of drug
production ' have mooted the banning of a selection of foreign drugs from entering the country, a strategy strongly opposed by the
Association of Pharmaceutical Importers (APIN) in Nigeria. The body cautioned that access to medicines would be severely
hampered by such moves, as the local industry is unable to meet the demand ' partly due to manufacturing capacity limitations, but
also as a result of frequent power outages and the lack of access to bank loans. Therefore, foreign generics players, including an
increasing number of Indian and Pakistani companies, will continue to have plentiful opportunities for supplying the Nigerian market.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ...5
SWOT Analysis .6
Nigeria Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT ... 6
Nigeria Political SWOT .. 7
Nigeria Economic SWOT 7
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings ....9
Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2010 Page 1/5

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Table: Middle East And Africa (MEA) ' Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q210 9
Limits To Potential Returns . 10
Risks To Realisation Of Returns .... 10
Nigeria ' Market Summary .12
Regulatory Regime ...13
Recent Regulatory Developments .. 14
Intellectual Property Regime .... 16
Counterfeit Drugs .... 16
Recent Developments in Regards to Counterfeit Drugs . 18
Table: Implementation Key To Success Now 19
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime ... 20
Industry Developments .22
Epidemiology . 22
Maternal and Child Health .. 23
Communicable Diseases . 24
HIV/AIDS .. 25
Recent Infectious Diseases Developments 27
Healthcare Sector .... 27
Healthcare Financing ... 28
Healthcare Provision .... 29
Recent Healthcare Sector Developments . 30
Healthcare Reforms . 31
Health Insurance 32
Traditional African Medicine .... 34
National Drug Policy .... 35
Medical Devices .. 37
Recent Developments In The Medical Devices Market .. 38
Table: Nigeria Free Zones: Key Incentives ... 38
Industry Forecast Scenario 40
Overall Market Forecasts .... 40
Key Growth Factors ' Industry . 41
Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic ... 43
Table: Nigeria ' Economic Activity, 2005-2014 .. 46
Prescription Drug Market Forecast .... 47
Patented Drug Market Forecast .... 48
Generic Drug Market Forecast . 49
OTC Drug Market Forecast . 50
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecasts ... 52
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts .. 54
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts .. 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Pharmaceutical Industry . 56
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector ... 58
Recent Domestic Company Developments .... 60
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector 61
Recent Foreign Company Developments . 62
Research and Development .. 63
Company Monitor 65
Indigenous Producers ... 65
Nigerian-German Chemicals PLC (NGC) .... 65
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Emzor ... 67
Fidson Healthcare ... 69
Archy ... 71
Neros Pharmaceuticals . 72
Drugfield Pharmaceuticals Limited .... 73
Neimeth 74
Multinational Company Profiles .... 75
Pfizer ... 75
Novartis .... 78
Sanofi-Aventis 80
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 81
Merck & Co ... 83
Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data 84
Section 1: Population .... 84
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 84
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 85
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 85
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 85
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 85
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 86
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 86
BMI Methodology 87
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts .... 87
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology . 88
Ratings Overview 88
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .. 89
Weighting .. 90
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 90
Sources 90
Forecast Tables ...91
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