Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the 'Limits of potential returns' includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the 'Limits of potential returns', the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the 'Risks to realisation of returns' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively. Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the 'Limits of potential returns' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the 'Limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the 'Risks to the realisation of returns' category, the market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI's long-term risk rating.

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Switzerland Commercial Banking Report Q1 2010
Published on December 2009
Report Summary
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this
through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative
information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance
Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings
calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the
risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the 'Limits of potential returns' includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in
question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the 'Limits of
potential returns', the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the
'Risks to realisation of returns' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's assessment of long-term
country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%,
respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be
borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the 'Limits of potential returns' are by far the most
heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements
are significantly higher than the country elements of the 'Limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking sector is (very)
large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market
elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped
relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the 'Risks to the realisation of returns'
category, the market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it,
and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI's long-term risk rating.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .....5
Table: Levels (CHFbn) ..... 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) ...... 5
Table: Levels At September 2009 .......... 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2009-2013 (%) ... 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2009 .... 6
Table: Projected Levels (CHFbn) ......... 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) .......... 6
SWOT Analysis ....7
Switzerland Commercial Banking SWOT .7
Switzerland Political SWOT .7
Switzerland Economic SWOT .... 8
Business Environment Outlook .9
Switzerland Commercial Banking Report Q1 2010 Page 1/4

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Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating ...... 9
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating .......... 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology ..... 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 10
Global Commercial Banking Outlook .......11
Emerging Market Banking Sectors ..... 13
Developed States Banking Sector Forecast Overview ..15
Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 15
Anticipated Developments In 2010 ..... 15
Comparison Of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) ........ 16
Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009) ..... 16
Interbank Rates And Bond Yields ........ 17
Switzerland Banking Sector Outlook .......18
Economic Outlook 21
Table: Switzerland Economic Activity, 2004-2013 . 23
Company Profiles .24
UBS .. 24
Table: Key Statistics For UBS (CHFmn) ..... 24
Credit Suisse .. 25
Table: Key Statistics For Credit Suisse (CHFmn) .. 25
Aargauische Kantonalbank 26
Berner Kantonalbank ...... 27
Luzerner Kantonalbank .. 28
Table: Key Statistics For Luzerner Kantonalbank (CHFmn) ...... 28
St.Galler Kantonalbank .. 29
Table: Key Statistics For St Galler Kantonalbank (CHFmn) ...... 30
Zürcher Kantonalbank .... 31
Banque Cantonale Vaudoise .... 32
Table: Key Statistics for Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (CHFmn) . 32
BMI Banking Sector Methodology .33
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating ......... 34
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 35
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .......... 36
Switzerland Commercial Banking Report Q1 2010 Page 2/4

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